Virginia passes redistricting commision

[R.P. McM]

The Republican Supreme Court drawing the maps if the commission fails seems like a poison pill, Dems should pass a different plan next year. Since the way constitutional amendments are passed it wouldn't be on the ballot until at least 2022.

Also: what happens if the U.S. Supreme Court declares independent redistricting commissions unconstitutional? In the 2015 AZ case, Kennedy was the lone Republican defector. Should the Court revisit the issue, I don't see either Gorsuch or Kavanaugh adopting Kennedy's position. No, unilateral disarmament remains a fool's strategy, and Democrats need to press their advantage unless/until the GOP agrees to abolish gerrymandering at the federal level.

[Zaybay]

Who does this benefit in the long-term ?

A.) VA Dems

B.) VA GOP

VA GOP. The Dems are extremely likely to take both the House and Senate in the state, and so the 2021-2031 cycle can be gerrymandered in favor of the Dems. After that, it would really depend on how politics evolve in the state of VA.

[IceSpear]

My favored strategy for the Democrats was to pass laws ending gerrymandering that get triggered once TX, OH, NC, etc. end gerrymandering. That way you still keep the moral high ground without unilaterally disarming. Of course, Democrats would rather unilaterally disarm since it is what they do best.

[politicallefty]

My favored strategy for the Democrats was to pass laws ending gerrymandering that get triggered once TX, OH, NC, etc. end gerrymandering. That way you still keep the moral high ground without unilaterally disarming. Of course, Democrats would rather unilaterally disarm since it is what they do best.

I agree. I've always been against unilateral disarmament on this issue. I'd prefer states adopt the California model for redistricting. It prevents either side from gerrymandering and also disregards incumbency.

NC looks like it might be changing on account of the state courts. Ohio could be changed through ballot initiative, but reform efforts seem to have given up and it seems doubtful the half-measure will have any meaningful changes. I'm guessing Dems get the Cincinnati seat, but that might be it.

[Gass3268]

This has to get passed again next term in order to go to the voters for approval. Hopefully the Democrats can take control and then just forget about it.

[Idaho Conservative]

http://dra.indirect.cc/join/4870ed29-6c50-4c3e-88b3-f78bb6faffc3
Here is a fair map the commission might draw.  All but ensures a 6D-5R delegation.  Sure, R's might not like they can't win a 6th seat in a wave and Dems would rather have competitive seats to trend to them but overall this map shouldn't be too offensive to either party, and represents the VA electorate well.

[Nyvin]

http://dra.indirect.cc/join/4870ed29-6c50-4c3e-88b3-f78bb6faffc3
Here is a fair map the commission might draw.  All but ensures a 6D-5R delegation.  Sure, R's might not like they can't win a 6th seat in a wave and Dems would rather have competitive seats to trend to them but overall this map shouldn't be too offensive to either party, and represents the VA electorate well.

The courts already said a district going from Richmond to Tidewater for an AA seat isn't legal.

[UncleSam]

When will the federal government pass a national law enforcing computers drawing the maps so we can be done with all of this

[Idaho Conservative]

http://dra.indirect.cc/join/4870ed29-6c50-4c3e-88b3-f78bb6faffc3
Here is a fair map the commission might draw.  All but ensures a 6D-5R delegation.  Sure, R's might not like they can't win a 6th seat in a wave and Dems would rather have competitive seats to trend to them but overall this map shouldn't be too offensive to either party, and represents the VA electorate well.

The courts already said a district going from Richmond to Tidewater for an AA seat isn't legal.

That was because it packed the blacks into a single seat, on my map there are 2 black Dem districts, one for Scott (VA-3) and one for McEachen (VA-4).  The courts would hardly consider my map unfair to black voters.  Even VA-5 has a decent chance of a black representative, considering it's a quarter black, so blacks would be a plurality of the Dem primary electorate, and who won the Dem primary there would be all but guaranteed to win the general.