Which state votes Democrat first?

[walleye26]

Personally, I’m going with MS because it has the highest percentage African-American and could draw some Democratic Memphis residents in Desoto County.

[Greedo punched first]

Mississippi first, then Louisiana.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Mississippi first, then Louisiana.

[iceman]

Mississippi is among the most inelastic states in the union. The voting there is due to racial polarization and I highly doubt that AA population there would become a majority, not in another 2 decades. People hoping it to vote DEM is just a pipedream in the near future.

Louisiana is the best pick as it has a good history of voting for DEMS statewide in the past recent years.

[voice_of_resistance]

MS is becoming less white slowly, and therefore will become D eventually. As for the others, the only one that is remotely possible is Louisiana.

[Del Tachi]

There are significant "push" factors encouraging young, college-educated liberals to leave Mississippi.  The state has the lowest median salary for college graduates in the country and Jackson (the only really "urban" place in the whole state) is a cliquey government/medical town without any of the dynamism that makes even mediocre cities like Birmingham or Little Rock livable. 

I bring this up to say don't expect younger White Mississippians to be less racially polarized.  All of the liberal ones will probably end-up leaving.

[Brittain33]

I'm gobsmacked at people who think the current leaders of Mississippi would gladly cede power to a Democratic majority because of slowly moving demographic change. Look at what happens in states where Republicans perceive fast-moving demographic change (North Carolina, Texas) or feel they need to lock in an advantage in a narrowly divided state (Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Michigan) or just the history of Mississippi over the last 200 years and you know it's just not going to happen that way.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I'm gobsmacked at people who think the current leaders of Mississippi would gladly cede power to a Democratic majority because of slowly moving demographic change. Look at what happens in states where Republicans perceive fast-moving demographic change (North Carolina, Texas) or feel they need to lock in an advantage in a narrowly divided state (Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Michigan) or just the history of Mississippi over the last 200 years and you know it's just not going to happen that way.

I don't think everyone thinks that the above scenario would occur. Its just simple math means that MS will be the first domino to fall if the Deep South goes Dem again.

[Sol]

I'm gobsmacked at people who think the current leaders of Mississippi would gladly cede power to a Democratic majority because of slowly moving demographic change. Look at what happens in states where Republicans perceive fast-moving demographic change (North Carolina, Texas) or feel they need to lock in an advantage in a narrowly divided state (Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Michigan) or just the history of Mississippi over the last 200 years and you know it's just not going to happen that way.

I don't think everyone thinks that the above scenario would occur. Its just simple math means that MS will be the first domino to fall if the Deep South goes Dem again.

Why? It's extremely clear that Republicans, particularly those in the south, will move anti-democratically when their power is challenged.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I'm gobsmacked at people who think the current leaders of Mississippi would gladly cede power to a Democratic majority because of slowly moving demographic change. Look at what happens in states where Republicans perceive fast-moving demographic change (North Carolina, Texas) or feel they need to lock in an advantage in a narrowly divided state (Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Michigan) or just the history of Mississippi over the last 200 years and you know it's just not going to happen that way.

I don't think everyone thinks that the above scenario would occur. Its just simple math means that MS will be the first domino to fall if the Deep South goes Dem again.

Why? It's extremely clear that Republicans, particularly those in the south, will move anti-democratically when their power is challenged.

But they'd do so in all of those states. MS is merely the path of least resistance due to Ds having the greatest numbers in the first place.