The Atlasian Post Official February 2019 Federal Election Prediction Thread

[Pericles]

Based on this thread thread from June 2018. What I said then is applicable now;

In this thread, posters get to submit predictions to the outcome of the June presidential election. You can predict either vote count or percentages-ideally both but it doesn't matter. It'll be interesting to see the average prediction and who comes closest to the final outcome. This thread closes when the polls open. Go ahead!

However, I am expanding this so that you can also make predictions for other federal elections, such as Senate races and House elections.

[At-Large Senator LouisvilleThunder]

President/VP:
Tmth/Lumine-52%, YE/Jimmy-46%, MB/Koopa-2%

House:
4 Federalists, 1 Montfortian, 1 Pericles, 2 Laborites, 1 Peace

Lincoln Governor:
ReaganClinton-50%, Peanut-50%

Lincoln Senate:
Not rating for obvious reasons

Lincoln Assembly:
Some kind of leftist majority

Southern Senate:
Lechasseur-75%, Wulfric-10%, Other Write-ins: 15%

Fremont Senate:
ON Progressive-55%, Politicalmasta-40%, Other Write-ins-5%

[Fmr. Representative Encke]

For President:
tmth/Lumine - 52.8%
YE/Jimmy - 47.2%

[thumb21]

President:
TM 46%
YE 46%
MB 8%

Lincoln Governor:
Peanut 60%
RC 40%

Lincoln Senate:
Tack 55%
Poirot 25%
LT 20%

Southern Senate:
Lechasseur 80%
Wulfric 20%

Fremont Senate:
ON Progressive 65%
Pmasta 35%

[Former President tack50]

President:

Tmth: 54%
YE: 36%
MB: 10%

2 party preferred: 56-44 for Tmth

Lincoln Governor

Peanut: 53%
RC: 47%

Southern Senate:

Lechasseur: 63%
Wulfric: 37%

Fremont Senate:

ON Progressive: 70%
PMasta: 20%
Dfwlibertylover: 10%

House:

3 Fed (Louisville Thunder, Koopa Da Quick, Coastal Elitist)
3 Lab (HenryWallaceVP, JGibson, TheShadowyAbyss)
1 Pax (Razze)
1 Mon (Ninja0428)
1 Ind (Pericles)

No overall control, Pericles and Ninja decide (I expect this to be basically de facto left wing control)

[P. Clodius Pulcher did nothing wrong]

Razze-majority House!

[Pericles]

Ok, time for my prediction. I will not predict the House races, as I am a candidate in them and I don't see any way for me to avoid predicting my own race if I did, and that would be unwise.
February 2019 presidential election
tmthforu94/Lumine; 96 votes 53.93% 99 votes 55.93%
YE/Jimmy7812; 76 votes 42.68% 78 votes 44.07%
MB/KoopaDaQuick; 4 votes 2.27%
Others; 2 votes 1.12%

Fremont Senate race
ON Progressive; 24 votes 57.14%
politicalmasta73; 14 votes 33.33%
Write-ins; 4 votes 9.52%

Lincoln Senate
tack50; 24 votes 52.17%
LouisvilleThunder; 18 votes 39.13%
Poirot; 3 votes 6.52%
Misteeer; 1 vote 2.18%

Southern Senate
Lechasseur; 32 votes 55.17%
Wulfric; 23 votes 39.66%
Write ins(probably of Razze); 3 votes 5.17%

I have taken some risks with these, let's see if they pay off!

[Fmr. Representative Encke]

A lot of these will probably end up being way off (especially if turnout collapses on one side for any particular reason), but here goes:

Presidential (final round; MB will probably get like 4-5 votes):

Fremont:
tmth - 23 - 44.2%
YE - 29 - 55.8%

Lincoln:
tmth - 27 - 48.2%
YE - 29 - 51.8%

South:
tmth - 35 - 60.3%
YE - 23 - 39.7%

Total:
tmth - 85 - 51.2%
YE - 81 - 48.8%


Fremont Senate:

pmasta - 17 - 37.8%
ON Prog - 28 - 62.2%

Lincoln Senate:

lthunder - 25 - 47.1%
tack - 28 - 52.8%

Southern Senate (final round):

Lechasseur - 35 - 66.0%
Wulfric - 18 - 34.0%

[Pragmatic Conservative]

Not predicting turnout

President
Tmthforu94 48%
YE 42%
MB 8%
Other 2%

Tmthforu94 49%
YE 43%
MB 8%

Tmthforu94 51%
YE 49%

Senate:
Lincoln
Tack 55%
LT 40%
Other 5%

Fremont
ON Progressive 60%
PM 33%
Other 7%

South
Lechasseur 65%
Other 23%
Wulfric 12%

Lincoln GOV
RC 47%
Peanut 47%

Peanut 51%
RC 49%

House 2 lab (Henry Wallace and Zaybay) 4 Fed (Vern, CMB, TPH and LT) 1 peace (Razze) and Pericles plus ninja

[Pericles]

Thanks for the predictions, I'll now lock this thread and re-open it after the election to see who was right or at least the least wrong.

[Pericles]

Ok, let's see how you did!