Tack's Presidential poll 2: 2 party preferred

[Former President tack50]

Ok, since last poll ended in a bit of a cliffhanger, here's a simulation of a final round between the 3 likely possibilities for a final round. This should give everyone some closure and act as a better estimation of how the election will actually look like.

Unlike last time, I won't attempt to make it a tracker, and instead will just close and analyze this poll in a couple of days.

[Former President tack50]

Wave 1 results (also this works as a bump)

Sample: 18 voters

Match 1:
Griffin / Jimmy (Labor): 64.7%
fhtagn / ?? (ACP): 35.3%
Undecided: 0%

Match 2:
Griffin / Jimmy (Labor): 64.7%
Generic Federalist: 35.3%
Undecided: 0%

Match 3
Griffin / Jimmy (Labor): 52.9%
MB / Canis (Confederate): 41.2%
Undecided: 5.9%

Analysis

For all the talk about her low approval ratings, her controversial presidency and her arguable unelectability, fhtagn manages to tie with Generic Federalist. However, on both matches the Labor ticket has a huge lead of almost 30 points.

However, things get more interesting if Confederate candidate MB is the one that makes it to the final round. While the Labor ticket still wins, the lead is only of 10 points and there would be actual undecideds on that race! Whether this is because of Confederates breaking for the left while Feds/ACP go for MB or something else I am not sure, but this is a shocking result indeed.

[Unconditional Surrender Truman]

We Want Griff!

[Esteemed Jimmy]

We Want Griff!

[Dr. MB]

MB

[Former President tack50]

Here goes Wave 2! (and again, this works as a bump). Let's hope I can get enough people for a third wave.

Sample: 25 voters (+7)

Match 1:
Griffin / Jimmy (Labor): 64%
Generic Federalist: 36%
Undecided: 0%

Match 2
Griffin / Jimmy (Labor): 68%
fhtagn / ?: 32%
Undecided: 0%

Match 3
Griffin / Jimmy (Labor): 56%
MB / Canis (Confederate): 40%
Undecided: 4%

Analysis

Griff gets a similar lead against Generic Fed compared to wave 1, so not much change on that front.

However, fhtagn finally begins to trail Generic Fed, losing by 36 points instead of only 28. However it's worth noting that the difference is just 1 vote flipping (16-9 vs 17-8).

And again, Confederate MB vastly overperforms both fhtagn and Generic Fed. While he still loses to Griffin, he at least puts up a decent fight, losing 56-40. This is however a larger loss than in wave 1 and MB is considered a meme candidate so maybe he is just becoming a stale meme? Either way, this is surprisingly good performance from the confederates.

[fhtagn]

Not sure I'd put so much weight into this kind of poll, especially when anyone can respond to them, including those not even registered in the game.

Atlasia polls can't really be taken seriously to begin with.

[Unconditional Surrender Truman]

[Adam Griffin]

Glorious News!

[Former President tack50]

Wave 3, and probably the last wave unless I somehow get like 40 respondents.

Sample: 32 voters (+7)

Match 1
Griffin / Jimmy (Labor): 56.3%
Generic Federalist: 40.6%
Undecided: 3.1%

Match 2
Griffin / Jimmy (Labor): 65.6%
fhtagn / ? (ACP): 31.3%
Undecided: 3.1%

Match 3
Griffin / Jimmy (Labor): 53.1%
MB / Canis (Confederate): 43.8%
Undecided: 3.1%

Analysis

Wow, wave 3 has actually changed the poll quite a bit.

Now, while Generic Fed is still trailing Griffin by quite a bit, the margin has been halved and now stands at only Griff+15. The race is a lot more competitive now, or so it seems

While she has dropped out of the race, fhtagn also now clearly underperforms compared to Generic Fed. Maybe her dropping out has hurt her poll numbers or boosted Generic Fed somehow?

Finally, MB and the Confederates keep losing their competitive advantage, and now MB only barely overperforms Generic Fed. He still keeps it the closest and now manages to keep it within single digits, but the difference between him and Generic Fed is very small. I expect once the Feds get a candidate that polling will start to resemble a more lopsided version of February but reversed; something like 51-39-10.