2020 Gubernatorial Ratings

[beesley]

Safe D: Delaware, Washington

Lean/Likely D: North Carolina

Tossup: Montana

Lean/Likely R: New Hampshire, Vermont, West Virginia

Safe R: Indiana, Missouri, North Dakota, Utah

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

NH, we can always get a surprise entry

[Xing]

[lfromnj]

basically the same

[Politician]

Kentucky isn't Safe R.

[IceSpear]

Kentucky isn't Safe R.

Yes it is.

[Canis]

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

WVA colored red should Manchin run and Ojeda would be the heir apparent

[Calthrina950]

Maria Chappelle Nadal could be the D gubernatorial nominee and Parson wouldn’t get any higher than the low 60’s. Hillary Clinton was about as close to the MO Dem floor as you can get

LOL

He's actually correct, I have to admit. I believe Parson would probably win with ~60% of the vote, at the most. No Republican got higher than 59% in Missouri in 2016, for example.

[Dr. MB]

MO wise, I don't think Trump is gonna win by 18% (more like 9 or 8%).  That would seem to help the Dems, but there's no Dem candidate that's as strong as Koster was.   

Sure there are:

-Bob Holden
-Claire McCaskill
-Emmanuel Cleaver
-Alan Wheat

[Progressive Pessimist]

Delaware: Safe D
Indiana: Safe R
Missouri: Likely R
Montana: Lean R
New Hampshire: Lean R
North Carolina: Tossup
North Dakota: Safe R
Utah: Safe R
Vermont: Likely R
Washington: Safe D
West Virginia: Safe R

Of course, some of these could change once we know the candidates.

[Calthrina950]

Delaware: Safe D
Indiana: Safe R
Missouri: Likely R
Montana: Lean R
New Hampshire: Lean R
North Carolina: Tossup
North Dakota: Safe R
Utah: Safe R
Vermont: Likely R
Washington: Safe D
West Virginia: Safe R

Of course, some of these could change once we know the candidates.

Change Missouri to Safe R, and these would be my ratings.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

WVa will become KY should a named candidate run. Bevin and Justice have net disapprovals

[smoltchanov]

Delaware: Safe D
Indiana: Safe R
Missouri: Likely R
Montana: Lean R
New Hampshire: Lean R
North Carolina: Tossup
North Dakota: Safe R
Utah: Safe R
Vermont: Likely R
Washington: Safe D
West Virginia: Safe R

Of course, some of these could change once we know the candidates.

Change Missouri to Safe R, and these would be my ratings.

And my too...

[lfromnj]

Im keeping MO at likely R due to the sh**tshow in MO that has been happening.

[MassBlueDog]

MO wise, I don't think Trump is gonna win by 18% (more like 9 or 8%).  That would seem to help the Dems, but there's no Dem candidate that's as strong as Koster was.   

Sure there are:

-Bob Holden
-Claire McCaskill
-Emmanuel Cleaver
-Alan Wheat

Claire McCaskill is retired for good.  Emanuel Cleaver isn't too well known outside of his house seat.  Bob Holden was a one term governor who was so unpopular that he lost in a primary.  I had honestly forgotten Alan Wheat existed, and I don't think he's popular enough to win statewide.

Koster was one of the few midwestern "moderates" who wasn't all talk.  He had the NRA endorsement, the Farm Bureau endorsement, while also having labor support.  I was honestly surprised that Kander did better than him.  Kander is the only candidate that I think still has a chance statewide, but I care more about his health than I do having him enter a hard governors race.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Delaware: Safe D
Indiana: Safe R
Missouri: Likely R
Montana: Lean R
New Hampshire: Lean R
North Carolina: Tossup
North Dakota: Safe R
Utah: Safe R
Vermont: Likely R
Washington: Safe D
West Virginia: Safe R

Of course, some of these could change once we know the candidates.

I forgot about the 2019 elections, most people seem to be including them too, so why not?

Kentucky: Likely R
Louisiana: Lean D
Mississippi: Lean R

Again, knowing the candidates can alter these ratings somewhat.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

KY is lean Dem with Bevin, we will see more polling to confirm this.

[Xing]

KY is lean Dem with Bevin, we will see more polling to confirm this.

Thanks, I needed a good laugh today.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I hope Dems can contest MO or WVa, these still are statewide Dem strongholds, despite their conservative voting record at Prez level

[MassBlueDog]

I hope Dems can contest MO or WVa, these still are statewide Dem strongholds, despite their conservative voting record at Prez level

I would not describe either of those as strongholds, though I agree that Dems should not write off those states.  Missouri is not the R +18 state that it was in 2016, it is more like an R+5 state.  Not easy, but certainly not like Idaho. 

West Virginia is weird because the electorate seems somewhat elastic, in the sense that they seem like they can vote D's downballot while voting Trump in for president.  Once again, not easy, but Jim Justice is not going to be a boon for the GOP.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

If Dems can get Booth to run, then the WVa race becomes competetive

[Heebie Jeebie]

Democratic nominee in parentheses.

Likely D:  Vermont (Weinberger), Washington (Inslee), Deleware (Carney)
Lean D:  New Hampshire (Buckley), North Carolina (Cooper)
Toss-Up:  --
Lean R:  Missouri (Kander), Indiana (Hale), Montana (Cooney)
Likely R:  North Dakota (Mahoney), Utah (Becker), West Virginia (Williams)

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Booth might be running for Gov, a Dem needs to beat him, him changing parties after being elected as a Dem, wasnt honest

[Rhenna]

Louisiana: Toss Up
Kentucky: Lean R
Mississippi: Likely R (State House district rule)
Delaware: Safe D
Indiana: Safe R
Missouri: Likely R
Montana: Toss Up
New Hampshire: Toss Up
North Carolina: Toss Up
North Dakota: Safe R
Utah: Safe R
Vermont: Lean R
Washington: Safe D
West Virginia: Likely R