What orange county district is likely to flip back in 2020

[brucejoel99]

LOL None. Orange County is gone as long as Trump is in office

I think you are underestimating Trump here. Newsom won OC by 0.2 points in a D YEAR!! Not to mention democrats spending over a hundred million dollars exclusively in OC on the house candidates, absolutely dominating the radio waves, no green party spoiler, etc,,.

Now let us look at 2020. The libertarian vote will most likely go to Trump by a huge majority (unless Weld runs), dems have to spend their millions elsewhere, dems most likely have to triage one of the OC districts, the economy being the major issue, this is where Trump can campaign on his fiscally responsible policies (tax cuts, reformed NAFTA).
If Sanders or another far left candidate becomes the nominee OC is around Lean R/weak Likely R.

LOL ok.

You do realize that a Dem winning OC by however many points (whether it's only 0.2 or 2 or whatever) isn't something you should be bragging about or patting yourself on the back for in any case, regardless of it having been a D year, b/c if it weren't for the very toxic dumpster-fire (*esp. in OC*) that you claim we "underestimate," the Trump presidency, then OC would've stayed R, as it has in pretty much (if not) all previous D years... right?

[Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort]

The downballot statewide Dems all won OC by much more than Newsom. Newsom is just less popular. As a County, OC will be Titanium D within the decade.

I actually think CA45 is most likely to flip back. State legislative and local race results within CA45 weren't as good for Dems as CA48 and CA39.

[Woody]

LOL None. Orange County is gone as long as Trump is in office

I think you are underestimating Trump here. Newsom won OC by 0.2 points in a D YEAR!! Not to mention democrats spending over a hundred million dollars exclusively in OC on the house candidates, absolutely dominating the radio waves, no green party spoiler, etc,,.

Now let us look at 2020. The libertarian vote will most likely go to Trump by a huge majority (unless Weld runs), dems have to spend their millions elsewhere, dems most likely have to triage one of the OC districts, the economy being the major issue, this is where Trump can campaign on his fiscally responsible policies (tax cuts, reformed NAFTA).
If Sanders or another far left candidate becomes the nominee OC is around Lean R/weak Likely R.

LOL ok.

You do realize that a Dem winning OC by however many points (whether it's only 0.2 or 2 or whatever) isn't something you should be bragging about or patting yourself on the back for in any case, regardless of it having been a D year, b/c if it weren't for the very toxic dumpster-fire (*esp. in OC*) that you claim we "underestimate," the Trump presidency, then OC would've stayed R, as it has in pretty much (if not) all previous D years... right?

I think my comment is justified. What happened in 2016 OC was just a fluke. When you think about it, it's pretty pathetic how narrow the margins were this year, good blue year, over hundreds of millions of dollars exclusively spent there, a bunch of bad R clown candidates like Rohrabacher, and ton of retired R incumbents and yet the Ds still barely managed to win the races there.
All this and you guys proudly brag how OC is now a D stronghold, however it's far from it.

If the economy continues to prosper it's going to be a literal slaughterhouse in OC.

[Kyle Rittenhouse is a Political Prisoner]

LOL None. Orange County is gone as long as Trump is in office

I think you are underestimating Trump here. Newsom won OC by 0.2 points in a D YEAR!! Not to mention democrats spending over a hundred million dollars exclusively in OC on the house candidates, absolutely dominating the radio waves, no green party spoiler, etc,,.

Now let us look at 2020. The libertarian vote will most likely go to Trump by a huge majority (unless Weld runs), dems have to spend their millions elsewhere, dems most likely have to triage one of the OC districts, the economy being the major issue, this is where Trump can campaign on his fiscally responsible policies (tax cuts, reformed NAFTA).
If Sanders or another far left candidate becomes the nominee OC is around Lean R/weak Likely R.

LOL ok.

You do realize that a Dem winning OC by however many points (whether it's only 0.2 or 2 or whatever) isn't something you should be bragging about or patting yourself on the back for in any case, regardless of it having been a D year, b/c if it weren't for the very toxic dumpster-fire (*esp. in OC*) that you claim we "underestimate," the Trump presidency, then OC would've stayed R, as it has in pretty much (if not) all previous D years... right?

I think my comment is justified. What happened in 2016 OC was just a fluke. When you think about it, it's pretty pathetic how narrow the margins were this year, good blue year, over hundreds of millions of dollars exclusively spent there, a bunch of bad R clown candidates like Rohrabacher, and ton of retired R incumbents and yet the Ds still barely managed to win the races there.
All this and you guys proudly brag how OC is now a D stronghold, however it's far from it.

If the economy continues to prosper it's going to be a literal slaughterhouse in OC.

County that hasn't gone Democratic in decades goes strongly Democratic for Congress and goes Democratic for governor.
County that is in any sense trending R.
Pick one.

[brucejoel99]

LOL None. Orange County is gone as long as Trump is in office

I think you are underestimating Trump here. Newsom won OC by 0.2 points in a D YEAR!! Not to mention democrats spending over a hundred million dollars exclusively in OC on the house candidates, absolutely dominating the radio waves, no green party spoiler, etc,,.

Now let us look at 2020. The libertarian vote will most likely go to Trump by a huge majority (unless Weld runs), dems have to spend their millions elsewhere, dems most likely have to triage one of the OC districts, the economy being the major issue, this is where Trump can campaign on his fiscally responsible policies (tax cuts, reformed NAFTA).
If Sanders or another far left candidate becomes the nominee OC is around Lean R/weak Likely R.

LOL ok.

You do realize that a Dem winning OC by however many points (whether it's only 0.2 or 2 or whatever) isn't something you should be bragging about or patting yourself on the back for in any case, regardless of it having been a D year, b/c if it weren't for the very toxic dumpster-fire (*esp. in OC*) that you claim we "underestimate," the Trump presidency, then OC would've stayed R, as it has in pretty much (if not) all previous D years... right?

I think my comment is justified. What happened in 2016 OC was just a fluke. When you think about it, it's pretty pathetic how narrow the margins were this year, good blue year, over hundreds of millions of dollars exclusively spent there, a bunch of bad R clown candidates like Rohrabacher, and ton of retired R incumbents and yet the Ds still barely managed to win the races there.
All this and you guys proudly brag how OC is now a D stronghold, however it's far from it.

If the economy continues to prosper it's going to be a literal slaughterhouse in OC.

Your troll game is pretty bad. If you’re gonna troll over a particular election result, maybe pick something like Florida instead of a county where Democrats swept every Congressional race and outperformed even Clinton in every single district except for CA-39

This.

[Mr. Smith]

Unlikely, but 39 thanks to Cisneros.

48 looks decent on paper, but Rouda seems like a perfect fit.

[Oryxslayer]

Unlikely, but 39 thanks to Cisneros.

48 looks decent on paper, but Rouda seems like a perfect fit.

For everyone doubting how well Rouda did, I'm going to have a deep analysis on my twitter after the new years holiday. Spoiler alert: He won traditionally conservative Huntington Beach and still has room to grow. Rouda under-preformed Clinton massively with Vietnamese in the Westminster/Santa Ana region and still won by a lot.