Why Biden will most likely not get the nomination...

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1. Biden's current poll number are most likely a ceiling ... he has almost universal name ID & currently is somewhat riding Obama's coattails... and hasn't really had very much scrutiny as a candidate himself.  If ppl were inclined to support Biden- they most likely already would be doing so (at least in polls).

2. I tend to think that politicians who have the X-Factor... have it from the start.  Obama won his 1st attempt for the Dem nominee... as did Bill Clinton... and for that matter the same is true with W Bush & Trump.  Biden (& Sanders) ... have both run for the Dem nominee unsuccessfully.  Biden several times.

The above is true regarding Presidential primaries... not elections in individual states-> ie, even Obama & Bill Clinton would have lost senate races in most Red states... Governor's races often tend to be easier to for Dems to win in Red states (also, Obama & Bill Clinton even lost elections in their home states... Clinton for Gov & Obama in the Dem Congressional Primary).  But running for the Presidential nominee is a totally different ballgame... and one in which having the X-Factor is Key.

3.  Biden's appeal in theory would be ... that after having such an inexperienced President like Trump- Biden's wealth of experience would be attractive.  But this is a bit faulty IMO.  The problem with Trump isn't inexperience... its inexperience that refuses to learn from the experienced advisors placed around him.  I don't think anyone will think this would be the case with almost any other candidate.  Also- if we look to the past- many would have thought following the Bush years that Dems would want a very seasoned and experienced candidate.... But Obama won the nomination.  

4.  The frontrunner in the Iowa polls this far out... seems to never end up being the nominee... at least in Dem Primaries... (Clinton was a bit of an exception- considering that virtually everyone stayed out of the race thinking Clinton was a lock).

I'm not saying Beto will 100% be the nominee (Although I think its very likely that will be & that 4 years from now people look at Beto's political X-Factor in the category of Bill Clinton & Obama)... But whoever the nominee ends up being... has probably not run & lost in a prior Dem Presidential Primary. (again for many reason, including everyone but Sanders clearing the way for Hillary... she is the obvious exception to this rule).