KY-06 is being overlooked

[Alben Barkley]

For some reason, everyone considered KY-06 a toss-up in 2018 even though Amy McGrath was a terrible candidate who lost an extremely winnable race that Jim Gray definitely would have won (considering he won the district in 2016 running for Senate against Rand Paul, under much less favorable conditions). But now it's ranked likely or safe R when we have a candidate here in Josh Hicks who is actually a much better fit for the district, which itself according to polls is trending rapidly D (last KY poll I saw had Trump losing to Biden here by like 12 points). If he was getting the kind of funding McGrath did, he'd have a real strong chance. But for some baffling reason, the national Democratic Party apparently decided McGrath (who isn't even a real Kentuckian) was the only hope for Kentucky, to the point they basically crowned her the Senate candidate and now she is sucking money away from actually winnable races. And they just totally abandoned KY-06, apparently under the delusion that if McGrath couldn't win it, nobody could. When if anything the truth is anybody BUT McGrath could win it.

Amy McGrath might actually be the worst thing that's happened to my district, state, and party in years, honestly. She missed a slam dunk in 2018 with a horrendous campaign (she was lucky to get as close as she did, considering the fact that she refused to even respond to negative ads against her) and now she's just stealing money from more worthy candidates in a Quixotic campaign against McConnell that is somehow even worse than her 2018 campaign.

Is all of this really because she ran one half-decent ad back in like 2017? Did everyone latch onto her because of that? If so, they are clueless about Kentucky politics. Her piloting fighter jets doesn't matter one bit to Kentuckians. Someone like Rocky Adkins, who can speak the language of coal country and is from there, would have been FAR more formidable. Jim Gray, who is actually from the district he was running for and actually has solid political experience, again would have won the House race at least. Josh Hicks, again, is also a far better fit. Amy McGrath might actually be the worst possible candidate. Yet seems everyone outside the state is under the impression she is the best Kentucky has to offer??? Crazy.

Anyway, my only hope is that Hicks manages to pull a Kendra Horn and win despite not being on anyone's radar and everyone writing him off. He has a chance just based on sheer trends; Fayette County/Lexington is trending D at the speed of light, I can promise you that. And the rest of the district doesn't seem nearly as crazy about Trump as it was in 2016 either. If it votes more like it did in 2019 than it did in 2016, he's definitely got a real shot despite the lack of attention from the national party. From what I've seen, Andy Barr trying to play his wife's tragic death for political points is not going over too well. This is definitely a race that could fly under the radar. I consider it a pure toss-up, and think the "pros" are delusional to think it's likely or safe R.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

A close friend of mine lives in KY-06. 

She's in a middle-class, largely-white suburb -- development houses, good school district, etc. etc.  Her neighborhood is apparently split on Trump: most either love or begrudgingly tolerate him, but a non-negligible portion (herself included) can't stand him. 

Does this sound like a pretty accurate profile of the district?

P.S. That Kentucky accent is adorable. 

[Alben Barkley]

A close friend of mine lives in KY-06.  

She's in a middle-class, largely-white suburb -- development houses, good school district, etc. etc.  Her neighborhood is apparently split on Trump: most either love or begrudgingly tolerate him, but a non-negligible portion (herself included) can't stand him.  

Does this sound like a pretty accurate profile of the district?

P.S. That Kentucky accent is adorable.  

The city of Lexington (which is consolidated with Fayette County), home of the University of Kentucky, more or less hates Trump across the board in my experience. Some of the suburbanites on the outskirts might still support him, but it's dwindling and nowhere near as strong as in 2016, when he already massively underperformed Romney, McCain, and Bush. In fact he did worst for a Republican in this county since 1944; even Goldwater, who lost the county handily, got a higher percentage of the vote.

Now, of course KY-06 is not just Lexington. But other counties in the district like Franklin (home of state capital Frankfort, and a very close swing county) and Woodford were already relatively shaky on Trump, and broke heavily against Bevin last year in the gubernatorial race, and the whole district voted against him by double digits. Add that to the polls we've seen showing this area has turned against Trump, PLUS the fact that former Lexington mayor Jim Gray managed to win the district outright even in 2016 as he lost the state and Trump/Barr won the district? I think there is major potential here that's being overlooked.

[Pericles]

It is a Trump +16% district that had no trend either way in 2016, unlike places like OK-05 and SC-01 that actually did have much larger Romney margins than Trump margins. I'm not going to say you're wrong because you should have a lot more knowledge about the district than an outsider like me, but what signs are there that it is going to have a big shift to the left?

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

It is a Trump +16% district that had no trend either way in 2016, unlike places like OK-05 and SC-01 that actually did have much larger Romney margins than Trump margins. I'm not going to say you're wrong because you should have a lot more knowledge about the district than an outsider like me, but what signs are there that it is going to have a big shift to the left?

Perhaps that Trump outperformed the PVI [R+9]? (Just taking a wild stab in the dark)

[Alben Barkley]

It is a Trump +16% district that had no trend either way in 2016, unlike places like OK-05 and SC-01 that actually did have much larger Romney margins than Trump margins. I'm not going to say you're wrong because you should have a lot more knowledge about the district than an outsider like me, but what signs are there that it is going to have a big shift to the left?

1. Even as Trump handily won the district in 2016, Rand Paul lost it to Jim Gray in the senate race.

2. The district DID trend sharply D in 2018, to the point Amy McGrath came within a couple points of winning it despite running a horrible campaign.

3. Lexington-Fayette is the most populous part of the district, and it has been RAPIDLY trending left. Again, Trump had the worst performance for a Republican there since 1944, barely cracking 40%, and it's only gotten worse for him since. This is exactly the kind of place where the GOP is hemorrhaging support.

4. Andy Beshear won the district by double digits in the gubernatorial race last year. In part because Bevin lost a massive amount of support in Lexington-Fayette, and in part because even the suburban/rural counties in the district trended D. Again, keep an eye on Franklin and Woodford in particular.

5. Polls of KY this year have so far shown Trump underwater in the district, representing a massive swing against him from 2016 that is reflected in many other polls of similar counties/districts across the country.

6. Our current R representative, Andy Barr, is trying to use his late wife as a political prop. From my admittedly anecdotal experience, this is not going over too well with voters.

[Xing]

Color me skeptical. Maybe if it's a big enough Democratic wave it could fall, but I think Democrats would probably also be picking up several other surprise House seats in that scenario. I don't see it flipping in a Biden +6 election, and I'd need more than "McGrath is a bad candidate" to convince me otherwise.

[WD]

Color me skeptical. Maybe if it's a big enough Democratic wave it could fall, but I think Democrats would probably also be picking up several other surprise House seats in that scenario. I don't see it flipping in a Biden +6 election, and I'd need more than "McGrath is a bad candidate" to convince me otherwise.

Do you think the result will only be +6 in the end, if so why?

[Xing]

Color me skeptical. Maybe if it's a big enough Democratic wave it could fall, but I think Democrats would probably also be picking up several other surprise House seats in that scenario. I don't see it flipping in a Biden +6 election, and I'd need more than "McGrath is a bad candidate" to convince me otherwise.

Do you think the result will only be +6 in the end, if so why?

The PV in the General? Yes, at least that's my current guess. I think that polls will slightly underestimate Trump, since some Republican and right-leaning Independents will come home to Trump, but it won't be enough for him to win.

[WD]

Color me skeptical. Maybe if it's a big enough Democratic wave it could fall, but I think Democrats would probably also be picking up several other surprise House seats in that scenario. I don't see it flipping in a Biden +6 election, and I'd need more than "McGrath is a bad candidate" to convince me otherwise.

Do you think the result will only be +6 in the end, if so why?

The PV in the General? Yes, at least that's my current guess. I think that polls will slightly underestimate Trump, since some Republican and right-leaning Independents will come home to Trump, but it won't be enough for him to win.

Yeah, right leaners coming home would certainly make sense if it did tighten. Probably the only explanation for why it would since I don’t think any event in the campaign will effect anyone who’s decided/ flip Biden voters. If the margin is different then what polls are saying, then it will be because of undecideds swinging one way or another.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

I think Biden could win this district narrowly in a landslide, but I'm worried Barr could still win due to the sympathy vote but you seem to think that won't be a problem?

[Pericles]

It is a Trump +16% district that had no trend either way in 2016, unlike places like OK-05 and SC-01 that actually did have much larger Romney margins than Trump margins. I'm not going to say you're wrong because you should have a lot more knowledge about the district than an outsider like me, but what signs are there that it is going to have a big shift to the left?

Perhaps that Trump outperformed the PVI [R+9]? (Just taking a wild stab in the dark)

It has been in the same range of being to the right of the nation by a margin in the mid to high teens for all 21st century presidential elections. I'm a bit confused by PVI, but what it says is R+9 seems to be what I think of as being 18 points to the right of the nation (as Trump got 59% of the two party vote there, so 9 points greater than 50%, but his margin of 16% is 18% higher than his nationwide margin of -2%).

[Alben Barkley]

I think Biden could win this district narrowly in a landslide, but I'm worried Barr could still win due to the sympathy vote but you seem to think that won't be a problem?

Not based on what I’ve seen. I actually think it may be backfiring.

Also, to those analyzing this race from a purely numbers-based perspective... I get it, I do. Might be guilty of overdoing that myself in other races. But the reality is, this is the kind of district where candidate quality really does matter. I am 1000% convinced Jim Gray would represent KY-06 TODAY if he hadn’t narrowly lost the D primary to McGrath in 2018. And then people would think very differently about it. Again, he won it even in 2016, an abysmal year overall for Dems in the district and state.

Moreover, even setting individual candidates aside, the district IS trending D fast. Fayette County especially. And the whole district according to the polls we have. Even if they are WAY off, it should be close. If not, Biden as well as Hicks should be favored here. Again, I see a lot of similarities to districts like OK-05, AR-02, etc.

Hell, even if we took McGrath’s performance in 2018 as a baseline, all indications are this year could be at least as favorable a national climate for Dems. All it would take then is a couple points shift to the left to flip it, which is EASILY feasible.

[VAR]

Mary Woodward, a Republican, was impressed with Democrat Amy McGrath from the first time she heard her speak. Woodward worked for McGrath’s unsuccessful 2018 campaign against Rep. Andy Barr (R-Ky.) and is currently working for her Senate campaign.

But this year, Woodward will vote for Barr, along with McGrath and Biden. She said Barr has done a good job with constituent services and represents Kentucky well. His Democratic challenger, she said, is too inexperienced.

https://about.bgov.com/news/gop-women-who-scorn-trump-weigh-how-to-choose-in-house-campaigns/

Oof.

[KaiserDave]

Mary Woodward, a Republican, was impressed with Democrat Amy McGrath from the first time she heard her speak. Woodward worked for McGrath’s unsuccessful 2018 campaign against Rep. Andy Barr (R-Ky.) and is currently working for her Senate campaign.

But this year, Woodward will vote for Barr, along with McGrath and Biden. She said Barr has done a good job with constituent services and represents Kentucky well. His Democratic challenger, she said, is too inexperienced.

https://about.bgov.com/news/gop-women-who-scorn-trump-weigh-how-to-choose-in-house-campaigns/

Barr is going to win easily

[Ancestral Republican]

Mary Woodward, a Republican, was impressed with Democrat Amy McGrath from the first time she heard her speak. Woodward worked for McGrath’s unsuccessful 2018 campaign against Rep. Andy Barr (R-Ky.) and is currently working for her Senate campaign.

But this year, Woodward will vote for Barr, along with McGrath and Biden. She said Barr has done a good job with constituent services and represents Kentucky well. His Democratic challenger, she said, is too inexperienced.

https://about.bgov.com/news/gop-women-who-scorn-trump-weigh-how-to-choose-in-house-campaigns/

Oof.

Lol. McGrift is a joke.

[Meatball Ron]

Hicks is an awesome candidate with great advertisements and fundraising, and Barr has been pretty silent on the campaign trail after experiencing a family tragedy. Agree Likely R is a ridiculous rating. Lean R, but probably closer to toss-up than likely. OK-05 2018 feels like the right comp here.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=efo0mbDyztg
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bRmYu4KC-ao

[Suburbia]

Hicks pulls out a victory, 51% to Barr's 49%.

[Blair]

Interesting.

Your point about McGrath being the the idea of what progressive thinks appeals to more conservative voters is interesting; there's a major problem in US politics where people think that being a veteran can make up for being an awful campaigner.

I'd be interested to hear why you thought McGrath did so badly & what choices she made? IIRC didn't she have tons of money & I assume DCCC picks are generally told what to do... she was one of the few high profile choices to lose.

Am I correct as well that she was doing what we call seat shopping? (trying to find the strongest place to stand across the country & claiming a link to 4 different corners of the country)

[Benjamin Frank]

Interesting.

Your point about McGrath being the the idea of what progressive thinks appeals to more conservative voters is interesting; there's a major problem in US politics where people think that being a veteran can make up for being an awful campaigner.

I'd be interested to hear why you thought McGrath did so badly & what choices she made? IIRC didn't she have tons of money & I assume DCCC picks are generally told what to do... she was one of the few high profile choices to lose.

Am I correct as well that she was doing what we call seat shopping? (trying to find the strongest place to stand across the country & claiming a link to 4 different corners of the country)

Yes, why does everybody who comments here say Amy McGrath is a bad candidate?

[VAR]

Barr won by 18 points.