U.S House districts where Democrats received a lower share of the vote in 2018

[136or142]

...than in 2016.

First, this is the preliminary aggregate 2018 U.S House vote.  All of the states have official results posted now except for North Carolina (thanks Mark Harris!) However, I probably made a few minor math errors somewhere (such as the total votes I've calculated is 600 votes different than the 3 components.)  

431 districts were on the ballot.  4 Democrats faced no opponent in Florida and their races did not appear on the ballot.  Overall, the Democrats ran candidates in 432 districts and the Republicans in 397.

Total votes: 113,674,308
Democratic: 60,679,609, 53.4%
Republican: 51,000,788, 44.9%
Other: 1,993,311, 1.8%

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Excluding Pennsylvania due to the redistricting, there were 329 districts where their were both Democratic and Republican candidates on the ballot in both 2016 and 2018.  329/417 total districts.


In these districts, the Democratic share of the vote increased in 288 and decreased in 41.  
In these districts, the Republican share of the vote increased in 62 and decreased in 267.

The difference between the two parties is based on the impact of 3rd party votes for 2018 compared to 2016.  I.E the third party vote decreased significantly so both the Democratic and the Republican share of the vote increased.

The 41 districts where the Democratic share of the vote declined are comprised of 28 Democratic incumbent districts, 7 Republican districts, and 6 Democratic open districts.


The first number is the 2018 share of vote, the second number is the 2016 share of vote
Democratic incumbents
1.California 3, John Garamendi, 58.1, 59.4
2.California 9, Jerry McNerney, 56.5, 57.4
3.California 14, Jackie Speier, 79.2, 80.9
4.California 15, Eric Swalwell, 73.0,73.8
5.California 16, Jim Costa, 57.5, 58.0
6.California 19, Zoe Lofgren, 73.8, 73.9
7.California 35, Norma Torres, 69.4, 72.4
8.California 36, Raul Ruiz, 59.0, 62.1
9.California 38, Linda Sanchez, 68.9, 70.5
10.California 46, Lou Correa, 69.1, 70.0
11.California 51, Juan Vargas, 71.2, 72.8
12.Connecticut 1, John Larson, 63.9, 64.1
13.Connecticut 2, Joe Courtney, 62.2, 63.2
14.Connecticut 3, Rosa DeLauro, 64.6, 69.0
15.Georgia 2, Sanford Bishop, 59.6, 61.2
16.Hawaii 2, Tulsi Gabbard, 77.4, 81.2
17.Illinois 1, Bobby Rush, 73.5, 74.1
18.Kentucky 3, John Yarmuth, 62.1, 63.5
19.Michigan 5, Daniel Kildee, 59.5, 61.2
20.Minnesota 7, Collin Peterson, 52.1 52.5
21.New Jersey 6, Frank Pallone, 63.6, 63.7
22.New York 9, Yvette Clarke, 89.2, 92.4
23.New York 18, Sean Maloney, 55.5, 55.6
24.New York 20, Paul Tonko, 66.5, 67.9
25.New York 26, Brian Higgins, 73.3, 74.6
26.Ohio 9, Marcy Kaptur, 67.8, 68.7
27.Ohio 13, Tim Ryan, 61.0, 67.7
28.Texas 34, Filemon Vela, 60.0, 62.7

Democratic Open Districts
1.Connecticut 5, 55.9, 58.0
2.Massachusetts 3, 62.0, 68.7
3.Minnesota 1, 49.7, 50.3
4.Minnesota 8, 45.2, 50.2
5.New Mexico 1, 59.1, 65.1
6.New York 14, 78.1, 82.9 (However Joseph Crowley was on the ballot on the Working Families line and received 6.6% of the vote)


Republican Districts
1.Alabama 2, 38.4, 40.5
2.Idaho 1, 30.8, 31.8
3.Tennessee 4, 33.6, 35.0
4.Texas 27, 36.6, 38.3
5.Utah 1, 24.9, 26.4
6.Wisconsin 8, 36.3, 37.3
7.Wyoming-AL, 29.8, 30.0
 

 

[Brittain33]

Total votes: 113,674,308
Democratic: 60,679,609, 53.4%
Republican: 51,000,788, 44.9%
Other: 1,993,311, 1.8%

Democrats got 2.3 million fewer votes in 2018 than Trump did in 2016.
On the other hand, Republicans got 15.8 million fewer votes in 2018 than Hillary Clinton received in 2016.

Another way of looking at it:
Democrats got about 5.2 million fewer votes than Clinton did.
Republicans got 12 million fewer votes than Trump.

[beesley]

Most of these are largely insignificant. My guess is that with reasonably good candidates in Governor's races, Republicans turned out slightly better in upstate New York, California, Connecticut and Idaho.

[136or142]

Most of these are largely insignificant. My guess is that with reasonably good candidates in Governor's races, Republicans turned out slightly better in upstate New York, California, Connecticut and Idaho.

I think Connecticut was clearly the outgoing unpopular Governor Dan Malloy.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

The only one of these that seem particularly interesting to me is OH-13.

[136or142]

The only one of these that seem particularly interesting to me is OH-13.

I think it's potentially interesting that the Democrats gained 7 U.S House districts in California while 11 incumbents received a lower share of the vote (albeit mostly slightly lower.)

[SInNYC]

I find it interesting that the two D incumbents that fell the most are the 2 who have been making the most news. They are Tim Ryan (6.7 points) and Tulsi Gabbard (3.8 points), and they of course made news by (kind of) challenging Pelosi and  running for president respectively.

Is it because voters dont like their reps to be getting too big for their britches, or newsmakers bringing on negative press, or something else?