South Dakota Governor

[MT Treasurer]

Well then, the Blue wave has hit the Black Hills.

Sutton isn’t winning because of the blue wave, that’s like saying Baker/Hogan/etc. are winning because of a red wave.

[Virginiá]

Well then, the Blue wave has hit the Black Hills.

Sutton isn’t winning because of the blue wave, that’s like saying Baker/Hogan/etc. are winning because of a red wave.

But would Hogan have originally won if 2014 was reversed, or at least neutral?

I think sometimes it does take a good year to get a party to victory in an otherwise hostile state, and from there they can build a better brand for themselves that can withstand a bad year. But they need to initially win over the people, and that is really hard when the environment is stacked against your party.

[MT Treasurer]

Well then, the Blue wave has hit the Black Hills.

Sutton isn’t winning because of the blue wave, that’s like saying Baker/Hogan/etc. are winning because of a red wave.

But would Hogan have originally won if 2014 was reversed, or at least neutral?

I think sometimes it does take a good year to get a party to victory in an otherwise hostile state, and from there they can build a better brand for themselves that can withstand a bad year. But they need to initially win over the people, and that is really hard when the environment is stacked against your party.

Yeah I’m not saying midterm turnout patterns don’t favor Sutton, but he would have been pretty much DOA in a House race against Noem, and Trump is far from unpopular in SD.

[Oryxslayer]

Well then, the Blue wave has hit the Black Hills.

Sutton isn’t winning because of the blue wave, that’s like saying Baker/Hogan/etc. are winning because of a red wave.

Its a combination of factors. The biggest is what Nate Silver said in a recent podcast: PVI for gubernatorial races tends to be the states PVI/3, averaged. What this means is that all the classic factors (Good Candidate, Poor Opponent, Poor local environment) tend to be magnified. It also means that if you are a moderate,  you can easily build a brand that can win reelection. It though also means that a wave has an easier time cresting in governor races then anywhere else. Dems after all held 31 governors after 2006 including Wyoming, and the Pubs 34 after 2014 including the previously stated Maryland and Illinois.

[Koharu]

https://www.argusleader.com/story/news/politics/2018/10/24/south-dakota-2018-election-governor-race-kristi-noem-billie-sutton-poll/1728860002/

Argus Leader / Mason-Dixon poll is out. Tied race.

Noem - 45
Sutton - 45

Wow. I never even considered SD until now. I thought it was a foregone conclusion as per usual. Very interesting. I can't make any predictions since I haven't been paying attention to this one at all, but now I will watch. Thanks for the interesting analysis this far, folks.

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/JohnAnzo/status/1055919177658257408

[IceSpear]

https://twitter.com/JohnAnzo/status/1055919177658257408

No it isn't a big deal, lol. Nobody cares about endorsements, especially from obscure former Senators.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

https://twitter.com/JohnAnzo/status/1055919177658257408

Larry Pressler is a good guy, but this isn't a big deal.  He endorsed Obama in 2008 and 2012 IIRC.

[cinyc]

A map of the 2018 SD Governor results by precinct/vote center/county. Sutton needed to do a little bit better in Rapid City to win. He actually lead more precincts there when the preliminary results came in, but fell behind as the election day votes (presumably) were counted:



Interactive versions of this map in non-Atlas colors are here:
Mobile: https://www.thecinyc.com/sd-gov-ge-2018
Desktop: https://www.thecinyc.com/2018-sd-gov-ge

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

I think South Dakota will never have a Democratic governor. No state currently has a longer streak of Republican governorship than SD.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

TX hasn't elected since 1990 no Democratic governorship

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

TX hasn't elected since 1990 no Democratic governorship

South Dakota since 1974.

[RI]

Sad to see Sutton lose.

[Badger]

Sad to see Sutton lose.

[libertpaulian]

Sad to see Sutton lose.

It is, but I don't think this is the last we'll be hearing from him.

[Badger]

Sad to see Sutton lose.

It is, but I don't think this is the last we'll be hearing from him.

Where else does he have to go? It's not like the federal races are likely to be more competitive anytime soon. Short of an oem having an utterly disastrous or corruption plague first-term he's not likely to win a rematch. Perhaps one of the other Statewide row offices?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Thune shouldn't receive a free pass, someone should challenge him

[KingSweden]

Sad to see Sutton lose.