How did the GOP win MN-08 and MN-01?

[Calthrina950]

Rural areas have abandoned the Democratic party in the midwest. If they couldn't keep those seats in the 2018 election, they won't have much of a chance getting them back in the next decade or so.

Agreed. Minnesota is a perfect representation of the realignment that is taking place. I suspect that within the next ten years, the last remaining cells of Democratic support in rural areas will be completely extinguished, and they will become a solely urban-suburban party. By 2040, 60% of the nation's counties will be going 70, 80, or 90% Republican in each election.

That is a massive assumption. We still saw Dem strength in some rural areas (Evers won SW Wisconsin, Dems won two upstate NY seats and almost got a third, Democrats won one of the most rural CDs in the country in ME-02).

You also can't ignore minority-majority rural areas (like the Black Belt, Southern Texas, and Native reservations).

It would be delusional to suggest rural areas (white ones in particular) aren't trending away from Democrats, but we've been through periods of equal or worse polarization that eventually went away. I have no reason to believe this one is any more permanent.

Of course, there will be exceptions. But I firmly believe that the rural-urban divide is hardening, and that it will become a defining feature of our political system, from this point forwards. Democrats are  done for in most rural areas, while Republicans are done for in most urban areas. That's just the way that it is. I tell you that by mid-century there will be counties that vote 90% Republican in almost every state, and counties that vote 90% Democratic in almost every state.

[ElectionsGuy]

Rural areas have abandoned the Democratic party in the midwest. If they couldn't keep those seats in the 2018 election, they won't have much of a chance getting them back in the next decade or so.

actually they have a decent shot of getting one them back due to good old fashioned gerrymandering.

Well, one district will be eliminated, and that will inevitably be skewed towards rural areas since they're stagnant in population compared to the M-SP area. Whenever Peterese retires or loses re-election, his district probably gets disproportionatley eliminated and we get two rural districts that are south and north (so the current MN-08 will get MORE Republican with more of western/central Minnesota added). I think the likeliest scenario is two rural districts (Hagedorn and Stauber, both R), one exurban district (Emmer's, R), one exurban/suburban district (Rep-elect Craig's, D), one suburban district (Rep-elect Phillip's, D) and two urban districts (both D). Phillip's district certainly is solidifying itself as D territory while Craig's district will likely be contested for a long time.

[IceSpear]

Rural areas have abandoned the Democratic party in the midwest. If they couldn't keep those seats in the 2018 election, they won't have much of a chance getting them back in the next decade or so.

actually they have a decent shot of getting one them back due to good old fashioned gerrymandering.

Well, one district will be eliminated, and that will inevitably be skewed towards rural areas since they're stagnant in population compared to the M-SP area. Whenever Peterese retires or loses re-election, his district probably gets disproportionatley eliminated and we get two rural districts that are south and north (so the current MN-08 will get MORE Republican with more of western/central Minnesota added). I think the likeliest scenario is two rural districts (Hagedorn and Stauber, both R), one exurban district (Emmer's, R), one exurban/suburban district (Rep-elect Craig's, D), one suburban district (Rep-elect Phillip's, D) and two urban districts (both D). Phillip's district certainly is solidifying itself as D territory while Craig's district will likely be contested for a long time.

You seem to be assuming MN Dems won't gerrymander the map.

[lfromnj]

Rural areas have abandoned the Democratic party in the midwest. If they couldn't keep those seats in the 2018 election, they won't have much of a chance getting them back in the next decade or so.

Agreed. Minnesota is a perfect representation of the realignment that is taking place. I suspect that within the next ten years, the last remaining cells of Democratic support in rural areas will be completely extinguished, and they will become a solely urban-suburban party. By 2040, 60% of the nation's counties will be going 70, 80, or 90% Republican in each election.

That is a massive assumption. We still saw Dem strength in some rural areas (Evers won SW Wisconsin, Dems won two upstate NY seats and almost got a third, Democrats won one of the most rural CDs in the country in ME-02).

You also can't ignore minority-majority rural areas (like the Black Belt, Southern Texas, and Native reservations).

It would be delusional to suggest rural areas (white ones in particular) aren't trending away from Democrats, but we've been through periods of equal or worse polarization that eventually went away. I have no reason to believe this one is any more permanent.

FYI both the rural black belt counties and Southern Texas trended R in the election.

[ElectionsGuy]

Rural areas have abandoned the Democratic party in the midwest. If they couldn't keep those seats in the 2018 election, they won't have much of a chance getting them back in the next decade or so.

actually they have a decent shot of getting one them back due to good old fashioned gerrymandering.

Well, one district will be eliminated, and that will inevitably be skewed towards rural areas since they're stagnant in population compared to the M-SP area. Whenever Peterese retires or loses re-election, his district probably gets disproportionatley eliminated and we get two rural districts that are south and north (so the current MN-08 will get MORE Republican with more of western/central Minnesota added). I think the likeliest scenario is two rural districts (Hagedorn and Stauber, both R), one exurban district (Emmer's, R), one exurban/suburban district (Rep-elect Craig's, D), one suburban district (Rep-elect Phillip's, D) and two urban districts (both D). Phillip's district certainly is solidifying itself as D territory while Craig's district will likely be contested for a long time.

You seem to be assuming MN Dems won't gerrymander the map.

Maybe they will, but they can only gerrymander so much. The best they're going to get is a 4-3 map in their favor. Maybe they can shore up Craig's district and make Emmer's a little more competitive. If they win 5 or more the GOP utterly screwed up in one of the races.

[Oryxslayer]

Rural areas have abandoned the Democratic party in the midwest. If they couldn't keep those seats in the 2018 election, they won't have much of a chance getting them back in the next decade or so.

actually they have a decent shot of getting one them back due to good old fashioned gerrymandering.

Well, one district will be eliminated, and that will inevitably be skewed towards rural areas since they're stagnant in population compared to the M-SP area. Whenever Peterese retires or loses re-election, his district probably gets disproportionatley eliminated and we get two rural districts that are south and north (so the current MN-08 will get MORE Republican with more of western/central Minnesota added). I think the likeliest scenario is two rural districts (Hagedorn and Stauber, both R), one exurban district (Emmer's, R), one exurban/suburban district (Rep-elect Craig's, D), one suburban district (Rep-elect Phillip's, D) and two urban districts (both D). Phillip's district certainly is solidifying itself as D territory while Craig's district will likely be contested for a long time.

You seem to be assuming MN Dems won't gerrymander the map.

Maybe they will, but they can only gerrymander so much. The best they're going to get is a 4-3 map in their favor. Maybe they can shore up Craig's district and make Emmer's a little more competitive. If they win 5 or more the GOP utterly screwed up in one of the races.

LUL 4-3 in their favor is the fair map, admittedly on of those 3 is competitive though. The Gerry is 5-2, though once again one of those 5 is competitive.

[lfromnj]

Rural areas have abandoned the Democratic party in the midwest. If they couldn't keep those seats in the 2018 election, they won't have much of a chance getting them back in the next decade or so.

actually they have a decent shot of getting one them back due to good old fashioned gerrymandering.

Well, one district will be eliminated, and that will inevitably be skewed towards rural areas since they're stagnant in population compared to the M-SP area. Whenever Peterese retires or loses re-election, his district probably gets disproportionatley eliminated and we get two rural districts that are south and north (so the current MN-08 will get MORE Republican with more of western/central Minnesota added). I think the likeliest scenario is two rural districts (Hagedorn and Stauber, both R), one exurban district (Emmer's, R), one exurban/suburban district (Rep-elect Craig's, D), one suburban district (Rep-elect Phillip's, D) and two urban districts (both D). Phillip's district certainly is solidifying itself as D territory while Craig's district will likely be contested for a long time.

You seem to be assuming MN Dems won't gerrymander the map.

Maybe they will, but they can only gerrymander so much. The best they're going to get is a 4-3 map in their favor. Maybe they can shore up Craig's district and make Emmer's a little more competitive. If they win 5 or more the GOP utterly screwed up in one of the races.

LUL 4-3 in their favor is the fair map, admittedly on of those 3 is competitive though. The Gerry is 5-2, though once again one of those 5 is competitive.

yeah a fair map is a 3  safe D 1 Lean to Likely D and 3 R.
Gerrymander would be 2Likely D  2 Safe D and 1 Lean D and 2 Titanium R.
Basic idea is one district that runs along the West and north and south halfish which is mostly rural. Hagedorn or whoever beats Peterson run here
Exurban district for Emmer basicailly borders the the new 1st district but is closer to Minneapolis.
the core St paul Minneapolis districts have the same core but about 1/3 is baconstripped out to take rural hicks and give them Ilhan Omar as a representative just to trigger em.
Phillips mostly stays the same and takes a bit of inner Minneapolis.
Craig takes a bit more of St Paul itself due to the baconstrip for the rurals for the 5th
The new 7th(aka iron range) is a district that runs from cook to St louis to outer minneapolis
I don't know about Olmstead though.

Its obviously a baconstrip but it works.

[ElectionsGuy]

Rural areas have abandoned the Democratic party in the midwest. If they couldn't keep those seats in the 2018 election, they won't have much of a chance getting them back in the next decade or so.

actually they have a decent shot of getting one them back due to good old fashioned gerrymandering.

Well, one district will be eliminated, and that will inevitably be skewed towards rural areas since they're stagnant in population compared to the M-SP area. Whenever Peterese retires or loses re-election, his district probably gets disproportionatley eliminated and we get two rural districts that are south and north (so the current MN-08 will get MORE Republican with more of western/central Minnesota added). I think the likeliest scenario is two rural districts (Hagedorn and Stauber, both R), one exurban district (Emmer's, R), one exurban/suburban district (Rep-elect Craig's, D), one suburban district (Rep-elect Phillip's, D) and two urban districts (both D). Phillip's district certainly is solidifying itself as D territory while Craig's district will likely be contested for a long time.

You seem to be assuming MN Dems won't gerrymander the map.

Maybe they will, but they can only gerrymander so much. The best they're going to get is a 4-3 map in their favor. Maybe they can shore up Craig's district and make Emmer's a little more competitive. If they win 5 or more the GOP utterly screwed up in one of the races.

LUL 4-3 in their favor is the fair map, admittedly on of those 3 is competitive though. The Gerry is 5-2, though once again one of those 5 is competitive.

I think you're overestimating how Democratic Minnesota is. The D vote is very concentrated and they would have to bacon strip Minneapolis-St Paul which I don't think is likely.

[Zaybay]

Rural areas have abandoned the Democratic party in the midwest. If they couldn't keep those seats in the 2018 election, they won't have much of a chance getting them back in the next decade or so.

actually they have a decent shot of getting one them back due to good old fashioned gerrymandering.

Well, one district will be eliminated, and that will inevitably be skewed towards rural areas since they're stagnant in population compared to the M-SP area. Whenever Peterese retires or loses re-election, his district probably gets disproportionatley eliminated and we get two rural districts that are south and north (so the current MN-08 will get MORE Republican with more of western/central Minnesota added). I think the likeliest scenario is two rural districts (Hagedorn and Stauber, both R), one exurban district (Emmer's, R), one exurban/suburban district (Rep-elect Craig's, D), one suburban district (Rep-elect Phillip's, D) and two urban districts (both D). Phillip's district certainly is solidifying itself as D territory while Craig's district will likely be contested for a long time.

You seem to be assuming MN Dems won't gerrymander the map.

Maybe they will, but they can only gerrymander so much. The best they're going to get is a 4-3 map in their favor. Maybe they can shore up Craig's district and make Emmer's a little more competitive. If they win 5 or more the GOP utterly screwed up in one of the races.

LUL 4-3 in their favor is the fair map, admittedly on of those 3 is competitive though. The Gerry is 5-2, though once again one of those 5 is competitive.

I think you're overestimating how Democratic Minnesota is. The D vote is very concentrated and they would have to bacon strip Minneapolis-St Paul which I don't think is likely.

Actually, a 5/2 delegation is rather easy to draw for MN. To do this, the 7th must be chopped up. You make an R voter sink out of an expanded 6th and 1st, and then you take the 8th and give it the D areas of the previous 6th and the North of MN07, the Democratic part of the seat. You can easily get the map discussed above by doing that.

[IceSpear]

Rural areas have abandoned the Democratic party in the midwest. If they couldn't keep those seats in the 2018 election, they won't have much of a chance getting them back in the next decade or so.

actually they have a decent shot of getting one them back due to good old fashioned gerrymandering.

Well, one district will be eliminated, and that will inevitably be skewed towards rural areas since they're stagnant in population compared to the M-SP area. Whenever Peterese retires or loses re-election, his district probably gets disproportionatley eliminated and we get two rural districts that are south and north (so the current MN-08 will get MORE Republican with more of western/central Minnesota added). I think the likeliest scenario is two rural districts (Hagedorn and Stauber, both R), one exurban district (Emmer's, R), one exurban/suburban district (Rep-elect Craig's, D), one suburban district (Rep-elect Phillip's, D) and two urban districts (both D). Phillip's district certainly is solidifying itself as D territory while Craig's district will likely be contested for a long time.

You seem to be assuming MN Dems won't gerrymander the map.

Maybe they will, but they can only gerrymander so much. The best they're going to get is a 4-3 map in their favor. Maybe they can shore up Craig's district and make Emmer's a little more competitive. If they win 5 or more the GOP utterly screwed up in one of the races.

LUL 4-3 in their favor is the fair map, admittedly on of those 3 is competitive though. The Gerry is 5-2, though once again one of those 5 is competitive.

yeah a fair map is a 3  safe D 1 Lean to Likely D and 3 R.
Gerrymander would be 2Likely D  2 Safe D and 1 Lean D and 2 Titanium R.
Basic idea is one district that runs along the West and north and south halfish which is mostly rural. Hagedorn or whoever beats Peterson run here
Exurban district for Emmer basicailly borders the the new 1st district but is closer to Minneapolis.
the core St paul Minneapolis districts have the same core but about 1/3 is baconstripped out to take rural hicks and give them Ilhan Omar as a representative just to trigger em.
Phillips mostly stays the same and takes a bit of inner Minneapolis.
Craig takes a bit more of St Paul itself due to the baconstrip for the rurals for the 5th
The new 7th(aka iron range) is a district that runs from cook to St louis to outer minneapolis
I don't know about Olmstead though.

Its obviously a baconstrip but it works.

The idea of Ilhan Omar representing a bunch of Racist MN Hicks makes me laugh.