WV House Megathread

[Continential]

West Virginia-1 Representative David McKinley and Lawyer Kendra Fershee Safe R

West Virginia-2 Representative Alex Mooney who was the Chair of the Maryland GOP at some point and Clinton West Virginia Director Safe R

West Virginia-3 Representative Evan Jenkins retiring Majority Whip Carol Miller of the West Virginia House as the GOP Nominee and State Senator Richard Ojeda Tossup

[Politician]

WV-1 (McKinley) - Safe R
WV-2 (Mooney) - Likely R
WV-3 (Vacant) - Tossup, gun to my head Ojeda wins.

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

1st: Safe R
2nd: Edge of Safe and Likely R.
3rd: Edge of Lean and Tilt D.

[Yellowhammer]

WV-1: Safe R
WV-2: Safe R
WV-3: Tilt R

[ON Progressive]

WV-1 - Safe R. McKinley isn't in any danger whatsoever.

WV-2 - Safe R, maybe Likely R. Mooney does seem to severely underperform this CD's partisan lean because he is a carpetbagger, but the candidate here isn't great. After all, she can be very easily tied to Hillary given that she quite literally was the campaign director for Hillary's campaign here.

WV-3 - Lean R. Ojeda is quite competitive and I'm not going to count him out whatsoever, but he was down 8 in the Siena poll. I know Monmouth had Ojeda ahead, but that was a June poll.

[ON Progressive]

https://twitter.com/Ojeda4congress/status/1045687786949554177

I'm not one that cares much for ads usually, but that doesn't mean I don't enjoy a good ad. And this is a good one.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

https://twitter.com/Ojeda4congress/status/1045687786949554177

I'm not one that cares much for ads usually, but that doesn't mean I don't enjoy a good ad. And this is a good one.

Freedom ad!

[IceSpear]

Safe R, Safe R, Likely R

[beesley]

WV-01: Safe R. McKinley has had controversy but he is still a good Rep.
WV-02: Safe R. This could have been Likely R, but Mooney has done well.
WV-03: Tilt R. This race is not very clear. I agree that Ojeda is a better candidate than Miller, but the fundamentals are sometimes just too strong.

[Zaybay]

WV-01: Safe R. McKinley is the strongest of the 3, and thats saying something, he has his own controversies, and is located in the ancestral R area of the state.

WV-02: Likely R. Mooney is rather weak, being a carpetbagger, and has constantly underpreformed. He is also located in the Ds strongest area presidentially, which will narrow the margins. Still, he is the heavy favorite.

WV-03: Tossup. This district could go either way. Ojeda is rather strong, compared to Miller who is rather weak. And Manchin winning the district should provide some help. But recent polling shows him down, though it also shows that 1/2 the district doesnt know who Ojeda or Miller is. This is a race that will become clear once we get 1/2 way into October.

[😥]

1st: Safe R
2nd: Safe R
3rd: Tossup, but Ojeda will win

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Trump is such a sissy, he could never be 1/1000th of the man Ojeda is.

[Alabama_Indy10]

Man I hope Ojeda wins.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Man I hope Ojeda wins.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Another Ojeda article

https://www.cnn.com/2018/10/03/politics/richard-ojeda-west-virginia-trump-country-congress/index.html

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Ojeda has a new ad in which he says that he is ANGRY:

https://twitter.com/Ojeda4congress/status/1049378680525352961

[BBD]

https://twitter.com/jake_zuckerman/status/1051974142591942656

[BlueDogs2020]

District 1; Safe R
McKinley probably gets 65% of the vote

District 2: Likely R
Sort of a dark horse race that has been largely ignored. Mooney is an incredibly weak incumbent; he is very clearly a carpetbagger, and has HUGELY underperformed the GOP ticket; in 2014, he won by only 3% while Capito won the district by over 30% for the Senate race. In 2016, he won by about 16% against a nobody while Trump won by about 40%. Sergent is also decent.

District 3: Tossup (Tilt D if forced to choose)
Ojeda is an incredibly strong candidate as we all know. Now that we have more polling this can be deduced; Manchin will win the district by about 20%, so he needs to prevent crossover voters. Polling has been very close; Monmouth poll from today had Miller leading 48-45; but I think Ojeda probably has like a 51% chance. His fundraising has also been incredible; he raised 1.4 million last quarter to Millers 400,000.
The DCCC has also committed over 400,000$ to the race; their poll last month had Ojeda leading 48-44.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Ojeda's campaign odds right now

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JZoJZddsSfM

[Xing]

WV-01: Safe R
WV-02: Safe R
WV-03: Lean R, closer to Likely R than Toss-Up

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Lol, just shows how stupid some people on twitter are, Ojeda, a Manchin Jr. with a buzz cut, lmao give me a break... for starters, Joe Manchin is the 3rd, not a Jr. so....

https://twitter.com/rosscfh/status/1053714131218522112

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Oh jeez, is this the electorate we are relying on to send a democrat back to Washington and Ojeda to there?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LxBHvFMPGkk

[IceSpear]

Oh jeez, is this the electorate we are relying on to send a democrat back to Washington and Ojeda to there?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LxBHvFMPGkk

"Donald J Trump...a billionaire from New York that represents the working men and women of this country."

I wonder what he means by that. Trumpcare and the tax scam certainly weren't very #populist . Could it possibly be...the racism?

Good comment on that video:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Technocracy Timmy]

Oh jeez, is this the electorate we are relying on to send a democrat back to Washington and Ojeda to there?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LxBHvFMPGkk

The two time Obama - Trump voting grandpa at the end isn’t even sure if he’ll vote for Ojeda. Ouch.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Oh jeez, is this the electorate we are relying on to send a democrat back to Washington and Ojeda to there?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LxBHvFMPGkk

"Donald J Trump...a billionaire from New York that represents the working men and women of this country."

I wonder what he means by that. Trumpcare and the tax scam certainly weren't very #populist . Could it possibly be...the racism?

Good comment on that video:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

And how have the Republicans picked their pockets lol



Before 2014 the last time the Republicans had won a majority of seats in the WV State Legislature was in 1928, they had barely elected any Republican Governors in that period either and didnt win a sngle senate race there from 1958-2012 either.