What's the probability that the GOP pres. nominee is not Bush, Rubio, or Walker?

[yakutia]

So, I'd put Cruz as a possible dark horse if he can unite the entire conservative spectrum, and Christie and Kasich as possible dark horses in the case of a Jeb-tastrophe (if he pulls a Bachmann, a Perry, or, worse, a Cain).

Bachmann, Perry and Cain are all complete idiots. Jeb on the other hand is a very smart guy. Don't understand at all how you can compare them.

And regarding your percentages, I think you have it wrong. Sadly, Rand probably won't expand beyond his conservatarian base. Walker is well ahead of him, Kasich, and especially Trump. And in no way whatsoever is Ben Carson, Carly Fiorina, Lindsey Graham, and I'd say Trump as well ahead of Cruz. Yes, everyone seems to hate him--except conservatives, He has appeal to the entire spectrum, from Tea Partiers to social conservatives. And, like Jeb, he's smarter than Bachmann, Perry, and Cain.

If Cruz really was so popular, he would be polling more than 4% in national primary polls right now no? After all he has near universal name recognition. Due to his government shutdown, I wouldn't be surprised if he's more well-known than Jeb actually. It just seems like 90% of Republicans really can't stand him much.

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