How many House seats will Dems gain in Virginia?

[Florida Man for Crime]

A week or so ago, I would have told you most likely just 1 or 2 seats (VA-10 and maybe VA-07).

However, the NYT/Siena re-poll of VA-02 is showing (so far, with about 300/500 done) a much closer tossup race in VA-02 than their first poll Luria is behind by just 1 point, 44-43. And the VA-05 poll (also not done, but 350/500), is showing Cokburn ahead by 1 so far (46-45), which I was not expecting.

So I am now (assuming the VA-02 and VA-05 polls more or less hold up) feeling substantially more optimistic about the VA house races than I was just a short time ago. I would say Dems are basically guaranteed VA-10. And I would expect, at this point, for them to be able to win 2 out of 3 from VA-02, VA-05, and VA-07. So that is 3 seats.

But I could see it, on a good night, quite easily being a gain of 4 seats.

What do you think? How many seats do you expect Dems to pick up in VA?

[Crumpets]

2 or 3. Order of likelihood: VA-10, VA-7, VA-5, VA-2. I think I'm in the minority putting VA-7 before 5, but I'm a big Spanberger fan, so I'm biased.

[Xing]

Statistically 2, but anywhere from 1 to 4 is possible.

[IceSpear]

I'd rate them something like:

VA-10 (100% chance)
VA-07 (55% chance)
VA-02 (45% chance)
VA-05 (20% chance)

I'm not fully buying the NYT poll in VA-05, I think it might be an outlier. But I doubt we'll ever get another poll there before election day, so I guess it's a crapshoot.

[MT Treasurer]

Statistically 2, but anywhere from 1 to 4 is possible.

[Frodo]

When all is said and done, Democrats will control nearly every congressional district in northern and eastern Virginia with the notable exception of the northern Tidewater District (VA 1):




Democrats: 7 districts

Republicans: 4 districts


And after redistricting under a (likely) Democratic-controlled General Assembly, we can probably pick up the 5th if we don't pick it up this year. 

[Florida Man for Crime]

I'm not fully buying the NYT poll in VA-05, I think it might be an outlier. But I doubt we'll ever get another poll there before election day, so I guess it's a crapshoot.

Why so skeptical of the VA-05 poll?

VA-05 is an open seat. It voted for Trump 53.4-42.3, about the same as OH-12 53.2-41.9. But it also voted more for Obama than OH-12.

If Dems could be as competitive as they were in the OH-12 special election, why not in VA-05? Even if you think Cockburn is a bad candidate and emphasize the importance of candidate quality (something that would be strange from you), O'Connor was not the greatest possible candidate either, and VA-05 is a slightly more Dem district. Plus you don't have Republican outside groups spending millions to nuke Cockburn in the same way they did in OH-12. And the same district has a history of electing a Dem in the last big Dem House wave (Perriello 2006).

That doesn't mean Dems will necessarily win it, of course, but it doesn't seem that surprising that it should be competitive with a serious chance at winning it.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

4(VA-2, VA-5, VA-7, VA-10)

[Virginiá]

I'd rate them something like:

VA-10 (100% chance)
VA-07 (55% chance)
VA-02 (45% chance)
VA-05 (20% chance)

I'm not fully buying the NYT poll in VA-05, I think it might be an outlier. But I doubt we'll ever get another poll there before election day, so I guess it's a crapshoot.

This seems reasonable, although I disagree with VA-05. I'd give her at least 40%. No incumbent in a Democratic wave year is a recipe for potential success in a T+11 seat. I'd give us slightly better odds if we had a better candidate, though.

[IceSpear]

I'm not fully buying the NYT poll in VA-05, I think it might be an outlier. But I doubt we'll ever get another poll there before election day, so I guess it's a crapshoot.

Why so skeptical of the VA-05 poll?

VA-05 is an open seat. It voted for Trump 53.4-42.3, about the same as OH-12 53.2-41.9. But it also voted more for Obama than OH-12.

If Dems could be as competitive as they were in the OH-12 special election, why not in VA-05? Even if you think Cockburn is a bad candidate and emphasize the importance of candidate quality (something that would be strange from you), O'Connor was not the greatest possible candidate either, and VA-05 is a slightly more Dem district. Plus you don't have Republican outside groups spending millions to nuke Cockburn in the same way they did in OH-12. And the same district has a history of electing a Dem in the last big Dem House wave (Perriello 2006).

That doesn't mean Dems will necessarily win it, of course, but it doesn't seem that surprising that it should be competitive with a serious chance at winning it.

Well, there's a few key differences between this and OH-12 (which I don't think Dems will win either, but I think they have a better chance at than VA-05.) It swung against the Dems in 2016, whereas OH-12 didn't have a significant swing. More recently, even Ed Gillespie won this district by almost double digits despite getting BTFO statewide, which doesn't exactly inspire confidence. Compare that to VA-02 which Northam won, or VA-07 which Gillespie only won narrowly. It's also far more rural than OH-12, which is mostly suburban. I also think Cockburn is a weak candidate, which #DoesMatter, just not anywhere near as much as a lot of people on this forum pretend it does.

Anyway, even if I'm lowballing it a bit, 1 in 5 odds is still a significant chance. But I definitely think it's the GOP's race to lose.

[😥]

I'd rate them something like:

VA-10 (100% chance)
VA-07 (60% chance)
VA-02 (50% chance)
VA-05 (30% chance)

So, 2 and 1 is Pure Tossup

[Politician]

Well here are my Virginia House ratings:
VA-1 (Wittman): Safe R: Just barely off the edge of competitive.
VA-2 (Taylor): Tossup: Polling shows a close race, as expected. Gun to my head, Luria wins.
VA-3 (Scott): Safe D.
VA-4 (McEachin): Safe D. Even in a Clinton midterm I doubt this would be competitive.
VA-5 (OPEN): Tossup. Gun to my head, Riggleman wins, but Cockburn is doing better then I expected.
VA-6 (OPEN): Safe R.
VA-7 (Brat): Tossup/Tilt D. Brat isn't exactly a strong incumbent.
VA-8 (Beyer): Safe D.
VA-9 (Griffith): Safe R. I was surprised that one Dem internal showed a close race, but yeah lol...this won't flip.
VA-10 (Comstock): Likely D. Closer to Safe then Lean, only out of caution do I rate this likely.
VA-11 (Connolly): Safe D. Once upon a time this was a swing district, but not anymore.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Just 1 (VA 10th) and I would give us like a 95% of winning it, But I would not be surprised if we got VA 2 (35% of winning imo) and VA 5 (35%) of winning also imo. I would be legit surprised if we picked up VA 7 though (15% of winning) imo. Obviously no dem held seats flip here. So 6-5 delegation for republicans is what I expect, but this place, like MN has a high seat moe.

[The Undefeatable Debbie Stabenow]

VA-10: 90% chance
VA-02: 50%
VA-05 and VA-07: 40%

So probably 2 or 3. I might be reading too much into the NYT poll that has Cockburn tied at the moment, because VA-05 seemed like a longshot before, but as far as I’m aware this is the only poll of this race so far so we have to work with the limited available data.

I want another VA-07 poll, because I’m guessing Spanberger has slightly improved standing since NYT’s first poll. If the current VA-05 results mostly hold, Luria made up about 6%, which is a pretty significant positive trend for her (hence my being slightly more bullish on VA-02 than VA-07). And at the end of the day, VA-02 is a slightly less conservative district than VA-07.

[Pericles]

I'd rate them something like:

VA-10 (100% chance)
VA-07 (55% chance)
VA-02 (45% chance)
VA-05 (20% chance)

I'm not fully buying the NYT poll in VA-05, I think it might be an outlier. But I doubt we'll ever get another poll there before election day, so I guess it's a crapshoot.

This seems reasonable, although I disagree with VA-05. I'd give her at least 40%. No incumbent in a Democratic wave year is a recipe for potential success in a T+11 seat. I'd give us slightly better odds if we had a better candidate, though.

538 also has Va-05 as a tossup and has for the entirety of its forecast, so it's not some kind of outlandish pickup. That said it's more like the 235th Dem seat, not the 218th.

[SN2903]

1. The Comstock seat and that's it.