Senatorial Ratings and Predictions - Arizona

[Webnicz]

Sinema is doing a lot better in the debate than I thought she would... very calm, good temperament.

[Xing]

I'm going to move this race back to Toss-Up. Sinema might still win, but it's looking much more dicey than before.

[Bidenworth2020]

I'm going to move this race back to Toss-Up. Sinema might still win, but it's looking much more dicey than before.

reasoning? If anything she is more favored after the debate IMO.

[Xing]

I'm going to move this race back to Toss-Up. Sinema might still win, but it's looking much more dicey than before.

reasoning? If anything she is more favored after the debate IMO.

I was on the fence as to whether this was Lean D or Toss-Up, but the Siena poll (while not the gospel truth, per se), is pretty much showing a Toss-Up race, and recently polls have this very close. I think we're past the point where debates really change much.

[MT Treasurer]

Anyway, Toss-up (actually I’d say Tilt D, but there’s no such option), Sinema wins 50-47.

I still think it’s a Toss-up, but I could see McSally pulling it off at this point. I feel like AZ and MT are the two races where Democrats should be favored on paper but that could be surprise R wins if Republicans are having a better than expected night in the Senate.

[UWS]

By the way, here are the early vote totals in Arizona.

http://www.arizona.vote/early-ballot-statistics

GOP has a lead of 27,000 votes.

[Bidenworth2020]

I'm going to move this race back to Toss-Up. Sinema might still win, but it's looking much more dicey than before.

reasoning? If anything she is more favored after the debate IMO.

I was on the fence as to whether this was Lean D or Toss-Up, but the Siena poll (while not the gospel truth, per se), is pretty much showing a Toss-Up race, and recently polls have this very close. I think we're past the point where debates really change much.

I mean, it is not even done dude, and they have Trump in the positive.

[Xing]

I'm going to move this race back to Toss-Up. Sinema might still win, but it's looking much more dicey than before.

reasoning? If anything she is more favored after the debate IMO.

I was on the fence as to whether this was Lean D or Toss-Up, but the Siena poll (while not the gospel truth, per se), is pretty much showing a Toss-Up race, and recently polls have this very close. I think we're past the point where debates really change much.

I mean, it is not even done dude, and they have Trump in the positive.

At this point, they have enough respondents that it's probably going to be quite close in either direction. I think Sinema is still more likely to win than not, but it's close enough for me to consider the race a Toss-Up.

What I don't get is why Atlas thinks that this race is Lean D while NV is a Toss-Up. Polls show roughly the same thing, and AZ polls don't have the same tendency to underestimate Republicans that NV polls do.

[Bidenworth2020]

I'm going to move this race back to Toss-Up. Sinema might still win, but it's looking much more dicey than before.

reasoning? If anything she is more favored after the debate IMO.

I was on the fence as to whether this was Lean D or Toss-Up, but the Siena poll (while not the gospel truth, per se), is pretty much showing a Toss-Up race, and recently polls have this very close. I think we're past the point where debates really change much.

I mean, it is not even done dude, and they have Trump in the positive.

At this point, they have enough respondents that it's probably going to be quite close in either direction. I think Sinema is still more likely to win than not, but it's close enough for me to consider the race a Toss-Up.

What I don't get is why Atlas thinks that this race is Lean D while NV is a Toss-Up. Polls show roughly the same thing, and AZ polls don't have the same tendency to underestimate Republicans that NV polls do.

Nevada is lean d in my book. But honestly, it is ballsy to go completely off fundamentals, even in a state as hard to poll as Nevada. So I can get some of the concern. As for those AZ being more likely to go dem then NV, I think people were saying that a few months ago, when polls showed Sinema up big. Not as much anymore.