Do Blue Dog Democrats Still Exist?

[Adam Griffin]

When you say "exist", who do you mean? Elected officials or voters?

In either case, yes: it of course depends on how you define it, but in the congressional caucus, the Blue Dogs gained members this cycle and gained members as a share of the Democratic caucus. The further down-ballot you go, the more prevalent they become. Rural areas throughout the South and Midwest are still littered with conservative Democrats (with the former area still having way more elected Democrats than you might think; akin to local GOP representation in the NE).

As far as voters go, ditto: I'd say anywhere from 20-25% of Democratic voters could be put into this category, depending on which issues and what ideological flavors you want to ascribe to the term.

Generally agree. But, as i said many times, term "conservative Democrat" doesn't mean now what it meant 30-40 years ago. It's became a "relative" term. Manchin and Lynch were mentioned by some here as "conservative Democrats" while in reality Manchin is a centrist, and Lynch - pragmatic moderate liberal. Even Peterson and Cuellar are no more then "slightly right-of-center" (and thus - generally centrist) guys. Let's take Georgia's examples only. And let's leave alone Larry McDonald, he was in his own calss. Take Maston O'Neal and  John Flynt as "more normal".. I am absolutely sure, that no Democrat in Georgia state legislature now stands close to them, and even if we add states, that still elect more conservative Democrats to their legislatures (Louisiana and Mississippi, for example), where real "moderate conservatives" (at least) still exist - not sure even then.

I'm definitely not referring to moderates, at least when discussing random local elected officials scattered throughout these places. When you get down to county sheriffs, commissioners, coroners and the like who hold elected office in the rural Deep South under the Democratic label, you'll find many who are barely distinguishable at all from modern Republicans - on both economic and cultural lines. Pro-life, pro-law enforcement, fiscally conservative, highly Christian, anti-immigrant, etc.

Of course, the main reason these people still exist is because of strategic decisions: this is how they've always been able to get elected in these rural Southern areas (via the Democratic primary) and nobody likes to jump ship and upset the apple cart until/unless they have to jump. A good example (at least as of a few years ago) were those maps I made showing which party held more local offices in each county throughout the region. Outside of federal/statewide offices, there are still a lot of elected Democrats who I'd say pass for legitimate conservative Democrats.

I believe when you talk about sheriffs and coroners. But, please, tell me the name of 1 (one) present day Democratic state legislator in Georgia, who is as conservative as O'Neal or Flynt were.

In Georgia specifically, none. It was arguably one of the first states to really sort out along partisan/ideological lines in the South when the realignment began, I'd say; not a good example, I think. I'm pretty sure there are still some genuinely conservative Democratic state legislators in LA, MS, AR and even AL, though.

[smoltchanov]

When you say "exist", who do you mean? Elected officials or voters?

In either case, yes: it of course depends on how you define it, but in the congressional caucus, the Blue Dogs gained members this cycle and gained members as a share of the Democratic caucus. The further down-ballot you go, the more prevalent they become. Rural areas throughout the South and Midwest are still littered with conservative Democrats (with the former area still having way more elected Democrats than you might think; akin to local GOP representation in the NE).

As far as voters go, ditto: I'd say anywhere from 20-25% of Democratic voters could be put into this category, depending on which issues and what ideological flavors you want to ascribe to the term.

Generally agree. But, as i said many times, term "conservative Democrat" doesn't mean now what it meant 30-40 years ago. It's became a "relative" term. Manchin and Lynch were mentioned by some here as "conservative Democrats" while in reality Manchin is a centrist, and Lynch - pragmatic moderate liberal. Even Peterson and Cuellar are no more then "slightly right-of-center" (and thus - generally centrist) guys. Let's take Georgia's examples only. And let's leave alone Larry McDonald, he was in his own calss. Take Maston O'Neal and  John Flynt as "more normal".. I am absolutely sure, that no Democrat in Georgia state legislature now stands close to them, and even if we add states, that still elect more conservative Democrats to their legislatures (Louisiana and Mississippi, for example), where real "moderate conservatives" (at least) still exist - not sure even then.

I'm definitely not referring to moderates, at least when discussing random local elected officials scattered throughout these places. When you get down to county sheriffs, commissioners, coroners and the like who hold elected office in the rural Deep South under the Democratic label, you'll find many who are barely distinguishable at all from modern Republicans - on both economic and cultural lines. Pro-life, pro-law enforcement, fiscally conservative, highly Christian, anti-immigrant, etc.

Of course, the main reason these people still exist is because of strategic decisions: this is how they've always been able to get elected in these rural Southern areas (via the Democratic primary) and nobody likes to jump ship and upset the apple cart until/unless they have to jump. A good example (at least as of a few years ago) were those maps I made showing which party held more local offices in each county throughout the region. Outside of federal/statewide offices, there are still a lot of elected Democrats who I'd say pass for legitimate conservative Democrats.

I believe when you talk about sheriffs and coroners. But, please, tell me the name of 1 (one) present day Democratic state legislator in Georgia, who is as conservative as O'Neal or Flynt were.

In Georgia specifically, none. It was arguably one of the first states to really sort out along partisan/ideological lines in the South when the realignment began, I'd say; not a good example, I think. I'm pretty sure there are still some genuinely conservative Democratic state legislators in LA, MS, AR and even AL, though.

As far as i know - not in Alabama. The last one, who was tangible right-of-center (Beech), just lost reelection attempt. BTW, i know only 1 white state Senator in Alabama (centrist), and 1 white state Representative there (liberal), so in this state Democratic party is, essentially, a "Black party". In Arkansas - mere remnants of what it was even recently: state senator Teague (moderate-conservative) and couple right-of-center persons in House. In Louisiana - Milkovich in state Senate (somewhat strange person, extreme social conservative, but less so on economy), may be Thompson (similar), but still - more of "pragmatic conservative" type, then "pure conservative" O'Neal and Flynt were. In Mississippi - well, Wilemon and Dearing in Senate, Bain - in House, but, again, closer to "pragmatic conservatives". I don't know anyone, who fully deserves "pure conservative" title now..

[The Mikado]

Also, those "Radical Activists" are also known as the majority of both parties. The dissenters are closer to the radical element in the party.

Sadly - they are, indeed, a majority in present day shameful parties.  That doesn't make them less radical. And less idiotic too...

The funny part about dems is that the "base" will elect moderates in primaries (Obama, Biden, Beto)

Yeah, and the GOP base - which, despite current narrative, is not a different group of people now than it was in 2008 - nominated both McCain and Romney ... and then Trump.  The Democratic electorate has nominated non-centrist candidates before, and it will again (possibly in 2020, but more likely its next time around once it's experienced some power).

It's not so much people leaving the GOP in the 2016 primary as other people entering.

In 2008, ~21 million people participated in the GOP primary. In 2012, ~19 million people did. In 2016, ~29 million people did. Trump won in large part by bringing new people who hadn't participated in primaries/caucuses regularly, and generally increasing voter engagement/turnout.

[TML]

If you're talking about politicians who currently hold elected office at the federal level, then there are very few remaining at this time.

On the other hand, if you're talking about people who are registered to the Democratic party, then I can tell you that there are plenty of such people in regions such as the Deep South and Appalachia (most of these people have stopped voting Democratic for offices at the federal level).

[smoltchanov]

If you're talking about politicians who currently hold elected office at the federal level, then there are very few remaining at this time.

On the other hand, if you're talking about people who are registered to the Democratic party, then I can tell you that there are plenty of such people in regions such as the Deep South and Appalachia (most of these people have stopped voting Democratic for offices at the federal level).

Agree. But many of them still vote Democratic on state level. If so - why there are so few conservative Democrats in state legislatures even in the South??? And similar question about Republicans in New England, where there are considerable number of moderate Republicans among registered.

[Continential]

Like every "blue dog" endorsed by the Blue Dogs was endorsed by the New Dems

[smoltchanov]

Like every "blue dog" endorsed by the Blue Dogs was endorsed by the New Dems

That's exactly why i call them " a tame Blue Dogs". Blue Dogs of 2009-2010, like Minnick, Bright, Childers, and so on were REAL (in fact - even them were less conservative, then their direct predecessors of 1960th-1970th, but - not by much, so - there was some continuity), present day - not so much (a name mostly). I am not especially interested in such "Blue Dogs"))))))