You get to see ONE county result from 2020. Which do you choose, and why?

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Justify your choice.

[JA]

Trumbull County, OH

If Trump loses Trumbull, especially by a sizable margin, it'll show that the non-Evangelical, non-college educated White vote has swung hard against him and, therefore, his chances of retaining the Rust Belt will be obliterated.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Fayette County, IA is interesting to me as Trump won it by 19 points, Obama won it by 16 in 2008 (12 in 2012), and it was virtually tied in 2000 and 2004.  Whatever is happening in Iowa seems to get amplified here.  If Trump is getting slammed in Fayette, he's probably losing Iowa, which spells trouble for his Midwest coalition.

I chose Maricopa, because if he's losing Arizona, he's probably losing the election nationwide.

Pinellas is also very tempting, for obvious reasons.

[SN2903]

Macomb County MI. I definitely think Trump holds it in 2020.

[Mr. Smith]

Pinellas, FL

If that county stays R, then all D hopes go up in flames for the state at the Pres. level.

[Bidenworth2020]

Trumbull County, OH

If Trump loses Trumbull, especially by a sizable margin, it'll show that the non-Evangelical, non-college educated White vote has swung hard against him and, therefore, his chances of retaining the Rust Belt will be obliterated.

However, a 50-50 race likely would tell you nothing.

[Sumner 1868]

Vigo, IN. It's been a consistent (though not perfect) bellwether for over a century, and was relatively weak for both Drumpf and Clinton.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Luzerne.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Essex, VT should tell me whether Bernie got the nomination.

[Bojack Horseman]

Vigo County, Indiana

[pbrower2a]

Maricopa, Arizona, as it contains the urban area (Greater Phoenix) that will decide the state. 

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Luzerne.

I'm surprised this isn't getting more votes.

[yakutia]

Shoulda included Northhampton, PA. Since 52 the winner of Northhampton wins PA.

[Cyrusman]

Macomb County MI. I definitely think Trump holds it in 2020.

If he wins Macon’s county again how good of a chance does he have of winning the state?

[Figueira]

Maricopa, because it dominates a very large (potential) swing state.

[morgankingsley]

Cook county

Because in both 12 and 16, the Republican would have won Illinois without it. Depends on how well trump does could mildly hint at the state in total as well as in a way the whole damn election

[Grassroots]

Vigo, the greatest bellwether.

[pops]

Depends. If all I get is a flat county result, then definitely Pinellas, FL, because I know Florida politics well and that county well.

If I get a full intersection of precinct results, I would opt for my own county. I'm in a swing state, in a 55% Republican county with suburbs, city, and the rest rural. If Trump carries all the towns and townships with at least 57% of the vote, he's won Minnesota, and almost certainly the election. If the Democrat wins any towns, Trump lost Minnesota by at least a 5% margin, and likely the election.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Saluda Co SC.