Gubernatorial races that could be closer than many think..

[Alabama_Indy10]

What gubernatorial races do you believe could be closer than many people expect? Personally, I think Alabama could be closer than are expecting. While I'm not expecting Maddox to win, I believe he could do reasonably well.

[Politician]

Vermont (I think Scott will just barely get above 50%) and Tennessee (Lee will win, but not by 20 points lol).

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

FL GILLUM will win, GA ABRAMS win also and Hubbell all close races. Also, WI. If Dems win these races, despite OH, they will win House

[Pyro]

Maryland and Tennessee.

[😥]

South Dakota and Tennessee

[Sir Mohamed]

Bold prediction: South Carolina. McMaster will barely make it to 50%.

[MT Treasurer]

Alabama, South Carolina, Maryland, Oregon, Alaska, Oklahoma (that one should be obvious, though), South Dakota.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Hogan and Sununu are moderates and are safe

[Xing]

South Dakota is the one that comes to mind. I also think that while races like Alabama, Hawaii, New York, and Wyoming are all safe for their respective parties, we'll see narrower margins than we generally see at the presidential level.

[RINO Tom]

Alabama, South Carolina, Maryland, Oregon, Alaska, Oklahoma (that one should be obvious, though), South Dakota.

I obviously agree, but I was wondering if you had an opinion on why Arkansas is so much safer than Oklahoma.  I agree with this assessment, of course, but it seems strange on the surface.  Oklahoma, if anything, has an even more inherent advantage for the GOP than Arkansas based on demographics, and I have never seen you too keen on emphasizing CANDIDATE QUALITY.

[MT Treasurer]

Alabama, South Carolina, Maryland, Oregon, Alaska, Oklahoma (that one should be obvious, though), South Dakota.

I obviously agree, but I was wondering if you had an opinion on why Arkansas is so much safer than Oklahoma.  I agree with this assessment, of course, but it seems strange on the surface.  Oklahoma, if anything, has an even more inherent advantage for the GOP than Arkansas based on demographics, and I have never seen you too keen on emphasizing CANDIDATE QUALITY.

The current incumbent in OK (Mary Fallin) is terribly unpopular (according to Morning Consult, her approval rating is only 19%), and the Republican candidate there is far-right. Hutchinson, on the other hand, is one of the most popular governors in the country, and the two polls taken so far have shown him ahead by 39 and 35 points, respectively. I’d argue that AR is the safest R seat this year.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Why hasn't Cordray broken free, in a GOP heavily gerrymandering state

[Roll Roons]

Does anyone else see this year's OK race as being kind of similar to the LA race from 2015? The candidates are a moderate Dem who's a good fit for the state and a flawed GOPer (even if Stitt is not quite as weak as Vitter), with the outgoing Republican incumbent extremely unpopular. I could definitely see Edmondson pulling it off in the end.

Alabama, South Carolina, Maryland, Oregon, Alaska, Oklahoma (that one should be obvious, though), South Dakota.

I obviously agree, but I was wondering if you had an opinion on why Arkansas is so much safer than Oklahoma.  I agree with this assessment, of course, but it seems strange on the surface.  Oklahoma, if anything, has an even more inherent advantage for the GOP than Arkansas based on demographics, and I have never seen you too keen on emphasizing CANDIDATE QUALITY.

The current incumbent in OK (Mary Fallin) is terribly unpopular (according to Morning Consult, her approval rating is only 19%), and the Republican candidate there is far-right. Hutchinson, on the other hand, is one of the most popular governors in the country, and the two polls taken so far have shown him ahead by 39 and 35 points, respectively. I’d argue that AR is the safest R seat this year.

[pops]

Minnesota, Arkansas, South Dakota, Idaho, and Maine

[DabbingSanta]

South Dakota.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

NH, VT and FL

[KingSweden]

Does anyone else see this year's OK race as being kind of similar to the LA race from 2015? The candidates are a moderate Dem who's a good fit for the state and a flawed GOPer (even if Stitt is not quite as weak as Vitter), with the outgoing Republican incumbent extremely unpopular. I could definitely see Edmondson pulling it off in the end.

Alabama, South Carolina, Maryland, Oregon, Alaska, Oklahoma (that one should be obvious, though), South Dakota.

I obviously agree, but I was wondering if you had an opinion on why Arkansas is so much safer than Oklahoma.  I agree with this assessment, of course, but it seems strange on the surface.  Oklahoma, if anything, has an even more inherent advantage for the GOP than Arkansas based on demographics, and I have never seen you too keen on emphasizing CANDIDATE QUALITY.

The current incumbent in OK (Mary Fallin) is terribly unpopular (according to Morning Consult, her approval rating is only 19%), and the Republican candidate there is far-right. Hutchinson, on the other hand, is one of the most popular governors in the country, and the two polls taken so far have shown him ahead by 39 and 35 points, respectively. I’d argue that AR is the safest R seat this year.

I could definitely seem Edmondson winning, even if I doubt that he will

[Mr. Smith]

Florida.

Gillum likely still wins, but FL Dems still have a history of incompetence in operation even when they have good candidates, and besides Bill Nelson, the state seems to be quite R downballot too.

Oh also Idaho, Rhode Island, Maryland, and South Dakota

[Figueira]

Wyoming. Have there been any polls there?

[Former Kentuckian]

South Dakota is the one that comes to mind. I also think that while races like Alabama, Hawaii, New York, and Wyoming are all safe for their respective parties, we'll see narrower margins than we generally see at the presidential level.

Same.

[Young Conservative]

I think California will be less than Brown '14.