If you could see one county result from one 2018 race

[Karpatsky]

Inspired by the 2020 thread - which county result from a single race would be the best predictor of the Senate & House outcomes?

I imagine the best bet would be somewhere in suburban TX or WI for their Senate races - normally I would say OH, but Brown is so personally popular that it would be harder to extrapolate.

[Yellowhammer]

Congressional Race: Maricopa County for AZ-Sen
Governor race: Cobb County for GA-Gov

[Florida Man for Crime]

Tarrant County, TX.

In the past it has been a pretty good bellwether of the statewide vote in Texas, but Beto probably needs to overperform a bit here and in other rural/urban areas to have a shot at winning. If I had this result showing Cruz's final margin of victory there, I could show it to everyone. Then it would be obvious that Cruz will win, and liberal donors would stop lighting 10s of millions of dollars on fire by giving money to Beto, and maybe donate instead to more cost-effective and winnable house and senate races elsewhere.

This is also one of the largest and most diverse Republican counties nationwide, so it could also give as decent a picture of what the wave might look like nationwide as any one county could. For example, in the very unlikely scenario that Beto were actually winning it, it would be quite a good bet that Democrats would retake the House with some room to spare, perhaps even 50-60+ seats.

[Xing]

I assume we could see the margin, and not just who won, right?

For congressional races: Maricopa county, Arizona

For gubernatorial races: Racine county, Wisconsin

[Gass3268]

I assume we could see the margin, and not just who won, right?

For congressional races: Maricopa county, Arizona

For gubernatorial races: Racine county, Wisconsin

Walker will win Racine County even if he loses statwide. It's one of the few places were FoxConn is popular and for the Democrat to win they have to get great trunout of the City of Racine, which I have yet to see since Obama 2012. Winnebago County would probably be a better choice.

[Xing]

I assume we could see the margin, and not just who won, right?

For congressional races: Maricopa county, Arizona

For gubernatorial races: Racine county, Wisconsin

Walker will win Racine County even if he loses statwide. It's one of the few places were FoxConn is popular and for the Democrat to win they have to get great trunout of the City of Racine, which I have yet to see since Obama 2012. Winnebago County would probably be a better choice.

Walker probably will win Racine, but that's why I specified that I wanted to see the margin, not just who won. If Walker's only winning Racine by a couple of points, I would predict with a decent amount of confidence that he'd lose.

[Gass3268]

I assume we could see the margin, and not just who won, right?

For congressional races: Maricopa county, Arizona

For gubernatorial races: Racine county, Wisconsin

Walker will win Racine County even if he loses statwide. It's one of the few places were FoxConn is popular and for the Democrat to win they have to get great trunout of the City of Racine, which I have yet to see since Obama 2012. Winnebago County would probably be a better choice.

Walker probably will win Racine, but that's why I specified that I wanted to see the margin, not just who won. If Walker's only winning Racine by a couple of points, I would predict with a decent amount of confidence that he'd lose.

Got it, that makes sense.

[Senator Incitatus]

Morris County, Senate

[Former Kentuckian]

Madison County, Kentucky in Kentucky's 6th Congressional district race. Amy McGrath's campaign has been working hard to flip it and it's a county with nearly 100,000 people. We know she'll win Fayette County, but Madison could be the key to her victory.

[libertpaulian]

Hamilton County, Indiana.  I'd love to see how close Donnelly can make the margin there.

[brucejoel99]

Pasco County for both FL-Sen & FL-Gov b/c, as Pasco goes, so does the state of Florida.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Lake County MT.

[Since I'm the mad scientist proclaimed by myself]

Maricopa county.

[VPH]

Johnson County, Kansas. It'll give us a really good clue of how the Governor's race is going and basically sum up the 3rd District result too.

[Oryxslayer]

The obvious House answer is Orange County CA. 4 competitive seats, each a little different. CA-49 is pushing towards the Dems, CA-48 is a test of Rochrabacher's personality, CA-45 is a suburban battle similar to other suburbia fights across the nation, and CA-39 has a high Clinton margin but a stronger Rep candidate then a dem one.

[jamestroll]

DuPage, Lake, Will and the metro east counties of Illinois