What is the GOP's path post-Trump in 2021 if he loses in 2020?
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  What is the GOP's path post-Trump in 2021 if he loses in 2020?
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Author Topic: What is the GOP's path post-Trump in 2021 if he loses in 2020?  (Read 946 times)
Suburbia
bronz4141
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« on: August 28, 2018, 07:06:39 PM »

If:

In 2018, Democrats take back control of the House for first time since 2008, Republicans keep the Senate with slim margin, but

In 2020, Democrats increase their House majority, Democrats win control of Senate, and President Trump loses to a Democratic candidate

With a Democratic president, and the Republicans being out of the White House for the first time since 2009, what is the GOP's path?
-Anger/rage/more fueled-sharpened rhetoric
-Change in political strategy to focus on VA, NJ, NYC 2021/2022 midterms
-or both?
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #1 on: August 28, 2018, 07:13:12 PM »

A Democrat in the White House. That's it. This would be all that they really need  to dominate in the 2022 midterms. Our political system is cyclical and repetitive. As such, timing is the most powerful and beneficial force for both political parties. 
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Crumpets
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« Reply #2 on: August 28, 2018, 07:16:17 PM »

1) Obstruct
2) Blame
3) Win

Loosely based on the Democratic plan post-2016 and the Republican plan post-2008 and post-1992.
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Indy Texas
independentTX
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« Reply #3 on: August 28, 2018, 08:07:50 PM »

Conveniently forget that they ever supported Trump.

Say Trump "wasn't a real conservative."

Claim they opposed any given unpopular Trump-era policy, despite no evidence that they ever did.
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Kyle Rittenhouse is a Political Prisoner
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« Reply #4 on: August 28, 2018, 08:12:43 PM »

The next GOP coalition will be fairly similar to today, although with a few differences. The general theme is Trumpism with the rough edges scraped off. They're fine with some immigration, but object to the Democrat's increasing it. They're fine with some trade, they just want it to be fair. They're fine with gay people and trans people, but not really actively for them. They're fine with the Democratic economic reform, but a UBI would be a step too far. Twelve years in the wilderness has tamed the party plenty. It's a small c conservative party.
They win power in '32 with a popular moderate governor from Minnesota on a coalition of manufacturers, the middle class, and homeowners. Manufacturing interests back them because the Democrats are now unapologetically free trade, the upper middle class backs them because their taxes are too damn high, and homeowners back them because of a NIMBY backlash to the Democratic president's attempt to reform housing. This coalition combines for a bare majority.
The Democrats hold a coalition of farming interests, Hispanic immigrants, and urban white liberals, especially Millennials.

This results in this map.
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Person Man
Angry_Weasel
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« Reply #5 on: August 28, 2018, 08:13:39 PM »

All good answers but you are missing the magical ingredient- the Republicans take jumping the shark to a whole new level.
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« Reply #6 on: August 28, 2018, 08:17:18 PM »

The next GOP coalition will be fairly similar to today, although with a few differences. The general theme is Trumpism with the rough edges scraped off. They're fine with some immigration, but object to the Democrat's increasing it. They're fine with some trade, they just want it to be fair. They're fine with gay people and trans people, but not really actively for them. They're fine with the Democratic economic reform, but a UBI would be a step too far. Twelve years in the wilderness has tamed the party plenty. It's a small c conservative party.
They win power in '32 with a popular moderate governor from Minnesota on a coalition of manufacturers, the middle class, and homeowners. Manufacturing interests back them because the Democrats are now unapologetically free trade, the upper middle class backs them because their taxes are too damn high, and homeowners back them because of a NIMBY backlash to the Democratic president's attempt to reform housing. This coalition combines for a bare majority.
The Democrats hold a coalition of farming interests, Hispanic immigrants, and urban white liberals, especially Millennials.

This results in this map.


I would flip NY and TX on that map along with NC and FL

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Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️
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« Reply #7 on: August 28, 2018, 09:27:18 PM »

A Democrat in the White House. That's it. This would be all that they really need  to dominate in the 2022 midterms. Our political system is cyclical and repetitive. As such, timing is the most powerful and beneficial force for both political parties. 

Exactly. The only thing they would need to do is just wait 2 years. They could just literally sit on their hands and say nothing and do nothing for the entire 2 years, and then they would win the 2022 midterms  in this case.
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Yank2133
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« Reply #8 on: August 28, 2018, 09:52:23 PM »

Conveniently forget that they ever supported Trump.

Say Trump "wasn't a real conservative."

Claim they opposed any given unpopular Trump-era policy, despite no evidence that they ever did.

Basically a replay of the post-W years.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #9 on: August 28, 2018, 09:54:05 PM »

A Democrat in the White House. That's it. This would be all that they really need  to dominate in the 2022 midterms. Our political system is cyclical and repetitive. As such, timing is the most powerful and beneficial force for both political parties.  

Exactly. The only thing they would need to do is just wait 2 years. They could just literally sit on their hands and say nothing and do nothing for the entire 2 years, and then they would win the 2022 midterms  in this case.

Yep. You all overthink everything. There's no grand narrative they have to learn and dramatic actions they need to take. They'll win when the voters get tired of the Democrats, which these days will happen roughly 5 seconds after they're elected.
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Orser67
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« Reply #10 on: August 28, 2018, 10:40:01 PM »

A Democrat in the White House. That's it. This would be all that they really need  to dominate in the 2022 midterms. Our political system is cyclical and repetitive. As such, timing is the most powerful and beneficial force for both political parties. 

I do agree that they would likely come back with a vengeance in 2022, but imo Trump's nomination and presidency have shown that the GOP has a dysfunction that goes far beyond normal cyclical partisan politics. Also throw in the fact that a non-incumbent Republican hasn't won the presidential popular vote since 1980, and the fact that changing demographics present a serious challenge for the long-term future of the party.

I realize that this is has been talked about for a long time, but Republicans badly need to recalibrate their policies to broaden their appeal beyond their base of core supporters. With the leftward move of the Democrats, I think the next few years could be a great opportunity for Republicans to retake some of the middle ground.
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pikachu
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« Reply #11 on: August 28, 2018, 10:43:43 PM »

1) Obstruct
2) Blame
3) Win

Loosely based on the Democratic plan post-2016 and the Republican plan post-2008 and post-1992.

This probably, but I wonder whether in our era of polarization whether a president can hold a 50-50 approval heading into the midterms and not have dire losses versus being more around 40-60 (or with Obama, 45-55) and being unable to stop the bleeding. I wonder if a boring, generic R without Trump's abrasiveness could've pulled off a high 40s approval in these economic conditions.

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