Rate the Senate 2022

[ProgressiveModerate]

Personally, I would say lean R.

The senate map at face value is more favorable to Democrats than not, but it'll be hard for them to get a midterm without a terrible national environment. Also; please don't compare this map to 2018 senate map; in 2018, Rs had low hanging fruit in deep R states, all the states with R incumbents in this map have an even PVI at best.

With that being said, both sides definately have several realistic pick up opportunities and anything from 52D-48R to 56R-44D seems pretty realistic, especially considering all the uncertainty this far out.

My overall map, many seats that should be safe are likely out of caution: https://www.yapms.com/app/?m=4ynp

[Kuumo]

I’ll have to update this if Ossoff or Warnock win, but it seems to be Likely R. Democrats need to hold AZ, NV, and NH and win two of PA, NC, GA, and WI. Luckily for them, PA, NC, and WI are open and GA is trending D quickly and has a weak incumbent. Unfortunately, the national environment will probably be too unfavorable for them to win any high-profile statewide races in purple states and they could easily lose some of their current Senate seats. If Democrats somehow win the Senate, it means that the midterm was a relatively neutral election like 1998 or 2002 and all of the close races broke their way.

[It’s so Joever]

Median scenario now is lean R, but there is a lot of variability this far out.

[Xing]

Likely R if Perdue/Loeffler win, Tilt/Lean R if Ossoff/Warnock win.