27 months out predict if Trump will win in 2020?

[SingingAnalyst]

For some reason, I could see this happening with Harris as the nominee.

Excellent map. For once, the PV and EV agree.

Do you think AZ is close? A recount is required if the margin is less than 0.1%.

Any reason you see Harris taking AZ, but not FL?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Trump will win re-election. It has been the precedent since 1992, and he hasn't done anything to his detriment besides the immigration crisis and having a few scandals.

However, I can see a change in the electoral map. It will be something we're not accustomed to seeing in recent elections. The trends will change due to changing demographics in the U.S.

"Other than that Mrs. Lincoln, what did you think of the play?"

[SingingAnalyst]

Trump will win re-election. It has been the precedent since 1992, and he hasn't done anything to his detriment besides the immigration crisis and having a few scandals.

However, I can see a change in the electoral map. It will be something we're not accustomed to seeing in recent elections. The trends will change due to changing demographics in the U.S.

You seem pretty confident. For conversation's sake...

Do you think Trump will win the PV? If not, do you think he'll narrow the gap from the 2.1% by which he lost the PV to Clinton? If Trump loses the PV by more than 2.1% this time, do you see potential for civil unrest?

Conceptually I like the idea of a changing map because it makes the "chess game" aspect of politics more interesting. (How about a Sicilian, as opposed to the Ruy Lopez with ...a6?) However, I find it hard to see it happening. Will Trump take MN? MN has a strong DFL tradition, and Trump would have to win over a LOT of Johnson voters (possible) and Stein voters (out of the question) as well as a few Hillary voters. Will Trump make inroads among young people, as Reagan did in 1984? Will Trump hold AZ and FL by building his support among Latinos? Do you see Trump winning over enough skeptics to replace his older, white base which is slowly dying off?

I'm curious to know your thoughts.

[Greedo punched first]

For some reason, I could see this happening with Harris as the nominee.

Excellent map. For once, the PV and EV agree.

Do you think AZ is close? A recount is required if the margin is less than 0.1%.

Any reason you see Harris taking AZ, but not FL?

Older white retirees are moving to FL at a higher rate than AZ. AZ has a growing Latino population and its whites are becoming more Democratic. Young college-educated whites are moving to AZ at a higher rate than FL. Are FL whites becoming more Republican?

[krazen1211]

For some reason, I could see this happening with Harris as the nominee.

Excellent map. For once, the PV and EV agree.

Do you think AZ is close? A recount is required if the margin is less than 0.1%.

Any reason you see Harris taking AZ, but not FL?

Older white retirees are moving to FL at a higher rate than AZ. AZ has a growing Latino population and its whites are becoming more Democratic. Young college-educated whites are moving to AZ at a higher rate than FL. Are FL whites becoming more Republican?

Yes, the Florida white vote was barely double digits (low teens) margins for George W. Bush both times. Nowadays both Rubio and Trump won the whites by over 30 points.

[Greedo punched first]

Wisconsin was closer than Florida. This might also be possible.

[SingingAnalyst]

For some reason, I could see this happening with Harris as the nominee.

Excellent map. For once, the PV and EV agree.

Do you think AZ is close? A recount is required if the margin is less than 0.1%.

Any reason you see Harris taking AZ, but not FL?

Older white retirees are moving to FL at a higher rate than AZ. AZ has a growing Latino population and its whites are becoming more Democratic. Young college-educated whites are moving to AZ at a higher rate than FL. Are FL whites becoming more Republican?

Yes, the Florida white vote was barely double digits (low teens) margins for George W. Bush both times. Nowadays both Rubio and Trump won the whites by over 30 points.

Any idea why FL whites are becoming more Republican? More importantly, will the trend continue, as Boomers replace the Silent Generation?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

For some reason, I could see this happening with Harris as the nominee.

Excellent map. For once, the PV and EV agree.

Do you think AZ is close? A recount is required if the margin is less than 0.1%.

Any reason you see Harris taking AZ, but not FL?

Older white retirees are moving to FL at a higher rate than AZ. AZ has a growing Latino population and its whites are becoming more Democratic. Young college-educated whites are moving to AZ at a higher rate than FL. Are FL whites becoming more Republican?

Yes, the Florida white vote was barely double digits (low teens) margins for George W. Bush both times. Nowadays both Rubio and Trump won the whites by over 30 points.

Any idea why FL whites are becoming more Republican? More importantly, will the trend continue, as Boomers replace the Silent Generation?

They already have.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Oh my god! Enough with Florida voting to the right of Arizona. If anything neither flip, only Florida flips, or they both flip.

[Greedo punched first]

Arizona whites are becoming more Democratic, unlike in Florida.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

For some reason, I could see this happening with Harris as the nominee.

Excellent map. For once, the PV and EV agree.

Do you think AZ is close? A recount is required if the margin is less than 0.1%.

Any reason you see Harris taking AZ, but not FL?

Older white retirees are moving to FL at a higher rate than AZ. AZ has a growing Latino population and its whites are becoming more Democratic. Young college-educated whites are moving to AZ at a higher rate than FL. Are FL whites becoming more Republican?

Yes, the Florida white vote was barely double digits (low teens) margins for George W. Bush both times. Nowadays both Rubio and Trump won the whites by over 30 points.

Any idea why FL whites are becoming more Republican? More importantly, will the trend continue, as Boomers replace the Silent Generation?

You kind of answered your own question, with the second question.