CT-Tremont Public Advisors: Boughton +14 in GOP Primary

[Zaybay]

If I may interject, the strategy of moving left and right works in swing states, or states leaning in your favor. But this is CT. This is Safe D territory. Here, a Baker type, moderate in the primary, moderate in the general, would win. In fact, Erin Stewart, the closest thing to that type, was leading in primary polling, even though she was moderate. It wasnt until she lost the endorsement of the CTGOP party, which is full of Right-Wing Lunatics, that Stewart dropped out.

[choclatechip45]

If I may interject, the strategy of moving left and right works in swing states, or states leaning in your favor. But this is CT. This is Safe D territory. Here, a Baker type, moderate in the primary, moderate in the general, would win. In fact, Erin Stewart, the closest thing to that type, was leading in primary polling, even though she was moderate. It wasnt until she lost the endorsement of the CTGOP party, which is full of Right-Wing Lunatics, that Stewart dropped out.

I agree. I do think Stewart’s age would have been held against her because CT is full of people who look down on younger people plus she had too many connections to right wing lunatics. A Charlie Baker type would clober Lamont.

[MT Treasurer]

Likely D, RI and ME are more likely to vote R.

I've seen this theory/prediction of yours a few times; I'm not sure if I've ever heard you explain why, though?

Zaybay already made some pretty good points, let me just add that the demographics of ME and even RI are more favorable to Republicans than CT (a state which is ground zero for anti-Trump/GOP backlash), Fung and Moody are both stronger candidates than Boughton, ME is only a D+3 state (and yes, PVI matters even in gubernatorial races) where the Independent could hurt Mills, Raimondo is relatively unpopular and unlike Malloy actually running for reelection again, polling has shown RI as more competitive than CT, etc. etc. etc. I definitely disagree with this idea that CT MUST be competitive no matter what just because of Malloy's unpopularity.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I think that the GOP will steal one in CT