If You Were In Charge Of The DCCC or The NRCC, What Would Be Your War Room?

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

I chose to be the DCCC.

Note: many of these color "ratings" DO NOT actually reflect my view on their current electoral positions, just treat them as a color code. This is NOT a prediction, it is a color-coded strategy.

This is as of now, it could change down the road.


Above picture would be my first attack tier, to be in an ideal situation to recapture the house, I would want to get at the very least 19 out of these 24 seats.

These are:

CA 49, 25, 10

AZ 2

KS 2

TX 23

IA 1

MI 11

MN 2

KY 6

FL 26, 27

NC 9

VA 10

NJ 2, 7, 11

PA 1, 4, 6, 7

NY 19, 22

ME 2



Above picture would be my second attack tier, to be in an ideal situation to recapture the house, I would want to get at the very least 5 out of these 19 seats.

These are:

CA 39, 45, 48

WA 8

UT 4

NM 2

CO 6

NE 2

KS 3

TX 32, 7

WI 1

IL 12

WV 3

NC 13

OH 1

PA 1

MT-AL

IL 6



Above picture would be my third attack tier, to be in an ideal situation to recapture the house, I would  out of be happy to even get 2-3 of the 19 seats.

These are:

CA 22

WA 5

CO 3

OK 5

TX 21, 31

AR 2

MN 3

IL 13

FL 6, 15, 16, 18

NC 2

VA 2, 7

NJ 3

PA 10, 16



Above picture would be my defense tier, to be in an ideal situation to recapture the house, I would want to defend at least 7 of the 10 seats.

CA 7, 24

NV 3, 4

MN 1, 8

PA 8

NY 18

NH 1

FL 7

[136or142]

Lots of toy soldiers.  Either play Risk or Strategy.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Lots of toy soldiers.  Either play Risk or Strategy.

Lol.

[Thank you for being a friend...]

I would build a state-of-the-art war room.  It would have polls taken automatically every 12 hours, a map that you could zoom in and shows precinct-level statistics...  It's time for us to go into the 21st century and use these new technologies.


That we don't have up-to-date polls every week in every key congressional district in 2018 is absurd.

[Thunder98]

If I were in the DCCC. (Hard to see but TX-32, CO-6, IL-06 and TX-07 are included)

[Rhenna]

I would be the NRCC.

Dark Red indicates a would-be pick up, Light Red indicates a seat held by the GOP.

First tier: Seats I would prioritize to keep or pick up. Mostly competitive seats or seats that are in deep danger of falling to the Dems. http://www.270towin.com/2018-house-election/oVz02BK Republicans will probably have to win most of these 23 seats to maintain a majority.
CA-10
CA-25
CA-48
CA-49
FL-26
IA-03
IL-06
IL-12
KS-02
ME-02
MN-02
NC-09
NE-02
NH-01*
NJ-07
NJ-11
NM-02
NY-19
PA-01
TX-07
TX-23
WV-03

Second tier: Seats that are less competitive either for the Democrats or Republicans but are necessary for the strategy. Republicans probably need to win some of these 29 seats to keep a majority. http://www.270towin.com/2018-house-election/4lEAn7l
AR-02
AZ-01*
AZ-02
CA-39
CA-45
CO-06
GA-06
IL-13
KS-03
MI-11
MN-01*
MN-03
MN-08*
MT-AL
NV-03*
NV-04*
NY-01
NY-11
NY-22
OH-12
PA-07
UT-04
VA-02
VA-07
VA-10
WA-03
WA-05
WA-08
WI-01

Third tier: Longshot seats or seats that Republicans are probably going to hold, but 27 seats that should be prioritized regardless for safety. http://www.270towin.com/2018-house-election/zp9nogV
AK-AL
FL-25
FL-27
IL-14
IA-01
KY-06
MI-06
MI-07
MI-08
MN-07*
NJ-02
NJ-03
NY-18*
NY-24
NC-02
NC-13
OH-01
OH-07
OH-10
OH-14
OH-15
PA-06
PA-08*
TX-31
TX-32
VA-05
WI-06

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Very insightful battle plans all of you... I have a question for my fellow democrats though about defense plans. Do you guys have some places where you think defense strategies should be implemented in certain districts, or do you feel as though we got things pretty much under wraps without much need for support in all our current districts?

[Greatblueheron]

I would be the DCCC.

First tier: These are the most competitive seats that Democrats have the highest chance to flip. For Democrats to win a house majority, they will probably have to make a clean sweep of these seats (they can only afford to lose 2 or 3 of these seats at most).
CA-49
CA-25
CA-10
AZ-02
WA-08
CO-06
TX-23
NE-02
MN-02
FL-26
FL-27
VA-10
PA-05
PA-06
NJ-02
NJ-11
NJ-07
IL-06
NY-19
NY-24

Second tier: These seats are competitive, but not as much as those in the first tier. Democrats will probably have to win around half of these seats in order to win a House majority (especially if they fail to flip a few seats in the first tier, and lose a couple seats in the third tier).
CA-39
CA-45
CA-48
TX-07
TX-32
KS-03
MN-03
WI-01
KY-06
MI-11
VA-07
VA-02
PA-01
PA-07
NJ-03
NY-22
ME-02
IA-01
IA-03
WV-03

Third tier: These are the Democratic House seats that I have identified as potentially vulnerable. In order for Democrats to win a house majority, they will probably have to make a clean sweep of these seats (they can only afford to lose 1 or 2 of these seats at most).
MN-01
MN-07
MN-08
NV-03
NV-04
NH-01
CA-07
PA-08
FL-07
FL-13

[Thunder98]

If I were in the NRCC

[The Undefeatable Debbie Stabenow]

These are the 50 GOP-held seats Democrats should prioritize capturing, separated into three tiers (darkest being the most prime pick-up opportunities).

http://www.270towin.com/2018-house-election/5poNo3K (can't get the image to work for some reason)

[Florida Man for Crime]

My war room would look just like this:

[GoldenMainer]

Top Tier (24 districts):

CA25, CA49, CO06, TX23, KS02, IA01, IL06, IL12, KY06, MI11, FL26, FL27, NC09, VA02, VA10, WV03, PA04, PA05, PA06, NJ02, NJ07, NJ11, NY22, ME02

Tier 2 (22 districts):

CA10, CA45, CA48, WA05, WA08, AZ02, UT04, TX07, TX32, KS03, IA03, NE02, MN02, MN03, WI01, MI08, PA01, PA07, VA07, NC13, FL06, NY19

Tier 3 (22 districts):

CA21, CA39, NM02, CO03, OK05, TX21, TX31, MO02, AR02, WI06, IL13, IL14, NC02, SC01, GA06, FL18, VA05, NJ03, PA10, NY01, NY02, NY11

[Devout Centrist]

First off, let's start with 8 must win districts. These are the darkest blue districts and to be successful here, Democrats need to pick up every single one of them. Even one loss here is a really bad sign. These districts should be close to gone for Republicans. Districts here: CA-49, FL-27, VA-10, PA-06, PA-05, PA-07, NJ-11, and NJ-02. You may quibble on the inclusion of PA-07 or NJ-11, but these two districts are good bellwethers for the other competitive seats in the Mid Atlantic and Virginia; losing either of these two seats would not be a good sign for Democrats. Hopefully polling shows Democrats leading in all or almost all of these districts.

Next, we have the 2nd core tier. These seats have very fruitful prospects for Democrats; hopefully 2/3rds of these seats will be picked up. Examples here include CA-10, NJ-07, KY-06, and AZ-02. Hopefully, polling would show that Democrats are tied or only slightly behind in most districts, maybe even ahead in some.


Finally, the third tier includes marginal Republican seats that can be taken with a little more effort. These seats are gravy and should only move to the core tier if the situation on the ground develops more to our favor. If polling indicates a seat is within reach, this is where a seat ends up. Picking up a quarter of these seats would be nice. However, if the other benchmarks are met, this would not be necessary to win a majority in the House. Examples here include: MN-03, NM-02, KS-03, and FL-18. Best case scenario for polling here would show Democrats behind by less than 5 points, preferably within 1-4 points.

If all benchmarks are met, Democrats would pick up 31-32 seats. This gives us a little breathing room if something goes wrong in a district or two. Some other marginal districts aren't included in this analysis (VA-05, CA-21, MO-02, etc.). These districts could come into play and deserve a separate category of their own. I'd keep an eye on these seats for a potential upset or two. Otherwise, the vast majority shouldn't flip.

[wesmoorenerd]

As the DCCC:

Tier 0 (14 Seats): AZ-01, AZ-09, CA-07, CT-05, FL-07, FL-13, MN-01, MN-07, MN-08, NH-01, NJ-05, NV-03, NV-04, PA-08

This is the defense tier. All of these are Dem-held seats that may be vulnerable to some degree. Only one or two losses is acceptable here.

Tier 1 (9 Seats): AZ-02, CA-49, FL-27, NJ-02, NJ-11, PA-05, PA-06, PA-07, VA-10

These are Republican-held seats that already favor the Democrats to some degree. Since Democrats are already advantaged here, I'd have put less support into flipping them than the next, more competitive tier. Flipping all of these is a must for winning the House.

Tier 2 (18 Seats): CA-10, CA-25, CA-39, CA-48, CO-06, FL-26, IA-01, IL-12, MI-11, MN-02, MN-03, NJ-07, NY-19, NY-22, PA-01, PA-17, TX-23, WA-08

These seats are the most competitive seats in the House, and as such they will have gotten the highest levels of support from D-trip. Flipping most of these seats is a must for winning the House.

Tier 3 (26 Seats): CA-45, GA-06, IA-03, IL-06, KS-02, KS-03, KY-06, ME-02, MI-08, NC-09, NC-13, NE-02, NJ-03, NM-02, NY-11, OH-01, OH-12, TX-07, TX-32, UT-04, VA-02, VA-05, VA-07, WA-05, WI-01, WV-03

These seats have a minor Republican advantage and will have gotten moderate levels of support from D-trip. These seats are mostly gravy and investment into them is mostly to serve as a buffer in case we fall short earlier. However, if the Dems are doing even better on the GCB than they currently are, the bulk of support gets shifted down to this tier. Flipping a good portion of these seats would be good news for flipping the house.

Tier 4 (27 Seats): AR-02, AZ-06, CA-04, CA-21, FL-15, FL-16, FL-18, FL-25, GA-07, IL-13, IL-14, IN-02, MI-01, MI-06, MI-07, MO-02, MT-AL, NC-02, NY-01, NY-24, OH-10, OH-14, OH-15, PA-10, SC-01, TX-21, WI-06

These seats are real longshots at the moment and will get relatively low levels of support. They could all be shockers, however, and won't be left in the cold entirely. Flipping any of these seats would be wonderfully welcome in regards to flipping the house.

Tier 5 (36 Seats): AK-AL, AZ-08, CA-22, CA-50, CO-03, FL-03, FL-06, FL-12, GA-12, IA-04, IL-16, IN-09, MI-03, NC-05, NC-07, NC-08, NJ-04, NV-02, NY-02, NY-21, NY-23, OH-07, OH-16, OK-05, PA-14, PA-16, SC-07, TX-06, TX-10, TX-22, TX-31, VA-01, WA-03, WI-07, WI-08

These are seats that would get minimal support from the DCCC and realistically won't flip, but they might be interesting to keep an eye on. Flipping even one of these seats indicates a monstrous wave.