Using Wikipedia, I looked back at the midterm elections of 1938 (FDR), 1946 (Truman), 1958 (Eisenhower), 1966 (Johnson), 1974 (Ford), 1982 (Reagan), 1994 (Clinton), 2006 (Bush II), and 2010 (Obama). These were all wave elections that favored the opposite party of the president.
I was curious if there were certain areas of the country or certain areas of states that swung in all or most of these elections.
States where at least 2 seats flipped to the other party:
1938
California (R+4)
Connecticut (R+2)
Illinois (R+4)
Indiana (R+6)
Iowa (R+3)
Michigan (R+3)
Minnesota (R+4)
Nebraska (R+2)
New Jersey (R+4)
New York (R+2)
Ohio (R+13)!
Pennsylvania (R+12)!
Rhode Island (R+2)
Wisconsin (R+8)
1946
California (R+7)
Connecticut (R+4)
Illinois (R+5)
Kentucky (R+2)
Michigan (R+3)
Minnesota (R+2) [Democrats picked up a seat too.]
Missouri (R+3)
New York (R+6)
Ohio (R+2)
Pennsylvania (R+8)
Washington (R+3)
West Virginia (R+3)
Wisconsin (R+2)
1958
California (D+3)
Connecticut (D+6)
Illinois (D+3)
Indiana (D+6)
Iowa (D+3)
Kansas (D+2)
Maryland (D+3)
Nebraska (D+2)
New York (D+2)
Ohio (D+3)
Pennsylvania (D+3)
Wisconsin (D+2)
1966
California (R+3)
Georgia (R+2) [Democrats picked up a seat too.]
Indiana (R+2)
Iowa (R+4)
Kentucky (R+2)
Michigan (R+5)
New Jersey (R+2)
Ohio (R+5)
Pennsylvania (R+2)
Texas (R+2) [Democrats picked up a seat as well.]
Virginia (R+2)
Wisconsin (R+2)
1974
California (D+5)
Illinois (D+3)
Indiana (D+5)
Iowa (D+2)
Michigan (D+2)
New Jersey (D+4)
New York (D+5)
North Carolina (D+2)
Oregon (D+2)
Tennessee (D+2)
Virginia (D+2)
Wisconsin (D+2)
1982
Since this was a post-redistricting election, this is just incumbents defeated:
California (D+1)
Connecticut (D+1)
Delaware (D+1)
Illinois (D+1)
Indiana (D+1)
Michigan (D+1)
Minnesota (D+2)
New Jersey (D+1)
New York (D+1)
North Carolina (D+2)
Pennsylvania (D+4)
South Carolina (D+1)
Virginia (D+2)
West Virginia (D+1)
1994
Arizona (R+2)
California (R+3)
Florida (R+2)
Georgia (R+3)
Illinois (R+2)
Indiana (R+3)
Kansas (R+2)
New Jersey (R+2)
North Carolina (R+4)
Ohio (R+4)
Oklahoma (R+2)
Tennessee (R+2)
Texas (R+2)
Washington (R+6)
2006
Arizona (D+2)
Connecticut (D+2)
Florida (D+2)
Indiana (D+3)
Iowa (D+2)
New Hampshire (D+2)
New York (D+3)
Pennsylvania (D+4)
Texas (D+2)
2010
Arizona (R+2)
Arkansas (R+2)
Colorado (R+2)
Florida (R+4)
Illinois (R+4)
Indiana (R+2)
Michigan (R+2)
Mississippi (R+2)
New Hampshire (R+2)
New York (R+6)
Ohio (R+5)
Pennsylvania (R+5)
Tennessee (R+3)
Texas (R+3)
Virginia (R+3)
Wisconsin (R+2)
So over these 9 elections, these are the states with the most swings:
New York (
- the 8s became smileys
Indiana (
Pennsylvania (7)
Illinois (7)
California (7)
Ohio (6)
Wisconsin (6)
Michigan (5)
Iowa (5)
New Jersey (5)
but in the past three wave elections (1994, 2006, 2010), these were the states that swung in all 3:
Texas
Florida
Indiana
Arizona
I know this really doesn't mean much, but I would expect that in Indiana, which nobody sees as competitive at all, there is going to be a swing. It's a very conservative, Republican state but it has a very long tradition of swinging in waves, so I'd watch out for IN-2 (Walorski) and IN-9 (Hollingsworth). That would probably be a good barometer of how Democrats are doing overall. If they are doing poorly in those districts, based on historical trends, they might not win the House.
The candidates are Mel Hall (IN 2) and Liz Watson (IN 9). In particular, I'd keep an eye on Mel Hall.
Of course historical trends may not mean a hill of beans this time around.
