Armenia in Revolt!

[FEMA Camp Administrator]

Saw this on Reddit and got some confirmation via an Economist article I read earlier this week and my Reuters app.
1. Former President Sarksyan appointed himself Prime Minister;
2. Street protests arose, apparently led by the parliamentary opposition leader.
3. Sarksyan resigns?
4. The ruling party announces it will nominate no further candidate, leaving the opposition leader as the only person currently nominated.

Will try to put together timeline when I get home.

[FEMA Camp Administrator]

Tried to piece together the full scoop. Timeline below, but the basic summary above holds. I want the reader to keep this assessment, courtesy everyone's favorite neoliberal publication, in mind, regarding the ex-President, ex-Prime Minister Serzh Sargasyan: "After a decade in power, Mr Sargsyan has little to boast of. The economy, reliant on remittances from Russia, has barely grown. Unemployment is at nearly 20%. Three in ten Armenians fall below a poverty line of $2.90 a day, more than in 2008. The borders with Azerbaijan and Turkey are closed. Foreign investors are deterred by corruption. Oligarchs control the main industries, Mr Sargsyan among them."

2015: A constitutional referendum in Armenia approved the shifting of powers to the office of Prime Minister, in anticipation of the end of President Serzh Sarkyan’s second term in office. 

April 2017: Armenia’s ruling Republican Party won parliamentary elections with 49% of the vote; the opposition party the Tsarukyan Alliance came in second place with 27%. 

January 2018: With Armenian president Serzh Sarkyan’s second term expiring, he announced his nomination for President, Armen Sarkissian, who counted among his qualifications involvement in the private sector and time as the nation’s Ambassador to Great Britain.   

Monday, April 9, 2018: The second and final term of Serzh Sargsyan as President of Armenia officially ended. 

Tuesday, April 17, 2018: An Armenian Parliament “stacked with loyalists,” elected Serzh Sargsyan the nation’s Prime Minister. This was met by “[a]round 10,000 protestors in Yerevan…chanting ‘Reject Serzh!’ Police used tear-gas to disperse them.”

Sunday, April 22, 2018: “Police in Armenia detained three opposition leaders and nearly 200 protesters on Sunday, drawing a rebuke from the European Union after demonstrators demanded newly appointed Prime Minister Serzh Sarksyan quit.” Reporting claimed that opposition leader Nikol Pashinyan had been removed from a protest by law enforcement; they also referred to “[t]ens of thousands of protestors” gathered in Yerevan’s Republic square.   

Monday, April 23, 2018: Newly-election Prime Minister and former Armenian President Serzh Saksyan resigned amid several days of outcry featuring “tends of thousands” of protestors.  The protests strengthened when “[a] large group of unarmed Armenian soldiers joined,” wearing their uniforms. Their actions were condemned by the Defense Minister, threatening “the harshest legal measures,”  and claiming that they had been sent their as crowd control. 

Tuesday, April 24, 2018: “[Opposition leader Nikol] Pashinyan declared…he was ready to become ‘the people’s prime minister’.”  Meanwhile, “Armenia’s acting prime minister, Karen Karapetyan, called on the president [to] meet with the opposition after previous talks planned for Wednesday were cancelled.” 

Wednesday, April 25, 2018: Acting Prime Minister Karen Karpetyan “suggested calling a parliamentary election as tens of thousands staged a new protest in the capital against the ruling elite.” In some ways, this was intended as a challenge to opposition leader Nikol Pashinyan, who was claiming to be a people’s candidate for prime minister.   

Despite claims by Armenian President Armen Sarkissian that Russian President Vladimir Putin had advised resolve during the protests, Nikol Pashinyan claimed that a Russian official had assured him the nation’s northern ally would not intervene.  It should be noted that Pashinyan had vocally signaled that he would not seek to push Russian bases out of Armenia should he take power (despite opposition by protestors to perceived excessive Russophilia by the governing party); reports did not specify the date of this declaration. 

Edmond Marukyan, an opposition legislator, told reporters that they planned to nominate Pashinyan for Prime Minister, calling him a “people’s candidate”. Members of the governing coalition indicated support for Pashinyan as well, with the Dashaktsutyun party announcing that it was leaving thecoalition; Pashinyan even claimed that members of the Republican Party had voiced their support. All around, the Republican Party indicated that it was in a position of weakness, with some lawmakers announcing their “read[iness] to hold talks with any political forces in the country without preconditions.” 

Thursday, April 26, 2018: The speaker of the Armenian Parliament the scheduling of an election for Prime Minister by Parliament on May 1st. “Armen Sarkissian, the president…hailed what he called ‘a new page’ in Armenia’s history and called on lawmakers to help forge a new country while respecting the constitution.” 

Saturday, April 28, 2018: Eduard Sharmazanov, spokesman for Armenia’s ruling Republican Party, announced that they would not be nominating a candidate for Prime Minister. An election for Prime Minister is scheduled to occur in Parliament on May 1, 2018. So far, the only nominee is opposition leader Nikol Pashinyan. 


1. Anitdze, M. & Mkrtchyan, H. (April 25, 2018). Acting Armenia leader suggests election as protests roll on. Thomson Reuters. Retrieved April 28, 2018 from https://www.reuters.com/article/us-armenia-politics/acting-armenia-leader-suggests-election-as-protests-roll-on-idUSKBN1HW0T6       
2. Anon. (April 19, 2018). Armenia’s unpopular president makes himself prime minister. The Economist. Retrieved April 28, 2018 from https://www.economist.com/news/europe/21740804-having-prudently-transferred-powers-premiership-president-serzh-sargsyan-assumes           
3. Mkrtchyan, H. (March 1, 2018). Armenia parliament set to elect Sarkissian as national president. Thomson Reuters. Retrieved April 28, 2018 from https://www.reuters.com/article/us-armenia-president/armenia-parliament-set-to-elect-sarkissian-as-national-president-idUSKCN1GD3VJ                 
4. Mkhrtchyan, H. (April 22, 2018). Police in Armenia detain opposition leaders, protesters. Thomson Reuters. Retrieved April 28, 2018 from https://www.reuters.com/article/us-armenia-politics-protests-primeminist/police-in-armenia-detain-opposition-leaders-protesters-idUSKBN1HT07P           
5. Mkrtchyan, H. Antidze, M. (April 26, 2018). Armenia to pick new PM next week; Moscow keeps wary eye. Thomson Reuters. Retrieved April 28, 2018 from https://www.reuters.com/article/us-armenia-politics/armenia-to-pick-new-pm-next-week-moscow-keeps-wary-eye-idUSKBN1HX18M     
6. Reuters Staff. (April 23, 2018). Unarmed soldiers joined anti-government protests in Armenia. Thomson Reuters. Retrieved April 28, 2018 from https://www.reuters.com/article/us-armenia-politics-protests-army/unarmed-soldiers-join-anti-government-protests-in-armenia-idUSKBN1HU15U           
7. Reuters Staff. (April 24, 2018). Armenia’s acting PM calls on president to organize meeting with opposition. Thomson Reuters. Retrieved April 28, 2018 from https://www.reuters.com/article/us-armenia-politics-meeting/armenias-acting-pm-calls-on-president-to-organize-meeting-with-opposition-idUSKBN1HV2WU       
8. Reuters Staff. (April 28, 2018). Armenia’s ruling party says will not nominate candidate for PM. Thomson Reuters. Retrieved April 28, 2018 from https://www.reuters.com/article/armenia-politics-opposition-parliament/armenias-ruling-party-says-will-not-nominate-candidate-for-pm-idUSR4N1S002R             

[Strudelcutie4427]

2003: Georgia
2004: Ukraine
2005: Kyrgyzstan
2009: Moldova
2014: Ukraine again
2018: Armenia???

which Former SSR is next?

[FEMA Camp Administrator]

2003: Georgia
2004: Ukraine
2005: Kyrgyzstan
2009: Moldova
2014: Ukraine again
2018: Armenia???

which Former SSR is next?

Kyrgyzstan actually has 2011 as well. (I actually didn't now about the Moldova one) The challenge is not to have these things erupt--it is to have their gains be sustained. If you look at Freedom House rankings, they do not shift much following any of these national uprisings. I believe Georgia shifted by .5 or something like that--though it gradually shifted from say 5 to 3 over the course of some years. Kyrgyzstan right now appears to be in a period of democratic decline (long having been the democratic standardbearer in Central Asia), as President Jeyenbekov is overseeing the strengthening of security services and a crackdown on dissent. I recently listened to a podcast in which a journalist from Kyrgyzstan did not express this same pessimism, however, which I found interesting. She also noted that even observers from nearby and almost-as-"free" Kazakhstan were aghast that Parliament could harangue a President as they do in Kyrgyzstan. Uzbekistan is interesting as it is undergoing an executive-led "decompression" (a term I have stolen from a Samuel Huntington book)--though it will likely be limited in scope, of course.

In my analysis, Georgia, Ukraine, and Kyrgyzstan have what I would call "reflexively democratic" populations--they have not shown, yet, that they can put together governments that maintain what we call democracy in the long-term, but they have shown the ability and willingness to rise up when they feel government has gone too far; perhaps this will one day manifest into a more stable structure of popular feedback. Armenia I will admit I would not have expected primarily due to their economic reliance on the diaspora and Russia, combined with the prioritization of their security services owing to the Nagorno Karabakh situation.

[Crumpets]

Someone floated the possibility that the reason Sarksyan resigned this time even after surviving mass protests in the past was because the Kremlin pressured him into it, fearing that if the demonstrators weren't appeased, the scale of the protest would go from calling for resignation to a Euromaidan-style protest pretty quickly. If the protests continue at the same rate as they have been, it will be interesting to see both what their new demands are, and how the Kremlin reacts.

[FEMA Camp Administrator]

It looks as though a potential sticking point for Pashinyan's ascendancy is the apparent need for support from Armenia's ruling Republican Party (HHK). Per Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, he needs the support of six members of HHK in order to be elected, but HHK's leader has stated that the party will consider all options before voting as a bloc. Nevertheless, (1) I'm unsure what other options are even available to them, since they appear to still be maintaining that they will not put forward a candidate, and Pashinyan is the only nominee; (2) blocking his election at the peak of popular hope strikes me as a particularly idiotic move.

Someone floated the possibility that the reason Sarksyan resigned this time even after surviving mass protests in the past was because the Kremlin pressured him into it, fearing that if the demonstrators weren't appeased, the scale of the protest would go from calling for resignation to a Euromaidan-style protest pretty quickly. If the protests continue at the same rate as they have been, it will be interesting to see both what their new demands are, and how the Kremlin reacts.

The situation would be perhaps especially dangerous for Russia since it's been reported that a grievance of the protesters is the current regime's closeness to Russia. This is something that Pashinyan has vocally blunted, saying (see above link) that there will be no "geopolitical reversals". He has previously claimed that a Russian official said they would not interfere, even as the Kremlin publicly backs the regime. Them being willing to cut a "deal" for some sort of soft regime change with a new leader that is still pledged to alliance with Russia might look like their best option.

[FEMA Camp Administrator]

Pashinyan is calling for a general strike after the Republican Party denied his bid to become PM. Protesters number (per usual in this crisis) in the tens of thousands.

[GMantis]

The situation would be perhaps especially dangerous for Russia since it's been reported that a grievance of the protesters is the current regime's closeness to Russia. This is something that Pashinyan has vocally blunted, saying (see above link) that there will be no "geopolitical reversals". He has previously claimed that a Russian official said they would not interfere, even as the Kremlin publicly backs the regime. Them being willing to cut a "deal" for some sort of soft regime change with a new leader that is still pledged to alliance with Russia might look like their best option.

No, it would be especially dangerous for Armenia, since they need the alliance with Russia far more than Russia does. It's no wonder that Pashinyan is going back on his previous statements.

[Lechasseur]

Pashinyan is calling for a general strike after the Republican Party denied his bid to become PM. Protesters number (per usual in this crisis) in the tens of thousands.

Who does the Republican Party want as PM, if they won't put up their own candidate?

[FEMA Camp Administrator]

Pashinyan (per Washington Post) told the crowds on Wednesday to start taking it easy, claiming that he has secured the votes to win in the second election for Prime Minister on May 8th. 

Pashinyan is calling for a general strike after the Republican Party denied his bid to become PM. Protesters number (per usual in this crisis) in the tens of thousands.

Who does the Republican Party want as PM, if they won't put up their own candidate?

There's been no indication, and news sources the world over emphasize that Pashinyan is the only candidate.

The situation would be perhaps especially dangerous for Russia since it's been reported that a grievance of the protesters is the current regime's closeness to Russia. This is something that Pashinyan has vocally blunted, saying (see above link) that there will be no "geopolitical reversals". He has previously claimed that a Russian official said they would not interfere, even as the Kremlin publicly backs the regime. Them being willing to cut a "deal" for some sort of soft regime change with a new leader that is still pledged to alliance with Russia might look like their best option.

No, it would be especially dangerous for Armenia, since they need the alliance with Russia far more than Russia does. It's no wonder that Pashinyan is going back on his previous statements.

A. Sure.
B. Semantics issue; I meant in the context of a regime change for Armenia, the direction of this looks/did look/could have looked more dangerous than any hypothetical uprising, as the protesters are anti-Russian. Emphasis on "especially" not on "Russia".

[Karpatsky]

Good for the Armenians! These events have restored some of my hope for the post-Soviet region after the disappointment of the opposition in Russia's election.

I wouldn't hold out hope for there being a 'next', but if I had to guess I'd actually say Russia. The post-Crimea nationalist appeal is slowly fading, and with the declining economy Putin's primary legitimizer is in real danger, especially now that the sovereign reserve fund is drained.
 

[FEMA Camp Administrator]

Good for the Armenians! These events have restored some of my hope for the post-Soviet region after the disappointment of the opposition in Russia's election.

I wouldn't hold out hope for there being a 'next', but if I had to guess I'd actually say Russia. The post-Crimea nationalist appeal is slowly fading, and with the declining economy Putin's primary legitimizer is in real danger, especially now that the sovereign reserve fund is drained.
 

I had the impression that the Russian economy was stabilized (or stabilizing); it recently had a loan status upgrade and rose(?) in some ranking of war of doing business. And the Kremlin has apparently decided to run a “tight ship” of spending on the assumption of a $40 gallon (whereas it’s at $60 right now). Not that this means the average citizen is well (or better) off right now, but that I would have assumed they were rebuilding their state savings and things were looking up.

[kelestian]

And last year Armenia had +7,5% GDP, better then all other post-Soviet countries.

[DavidB.]

Pashinian elected PM in a 59-42 parliamentary vote. Sensational.

[Strudelcutie4427]

So any guesses as to what this'll be called? The __________ Revolution

[International Brotherhood of Bernard]

So any guesses as to what this'll be called? The __________ Revolution

Pashinian is calling it "The Velvet Revolution" (which I thought was already taken by Czechoslovakia but I suppose there are only so many colors/soft fabrics)

[Aboa]

Pashinian reportedly trying to have his cake and eat it too looking for economic cooperation with EU while maintaining Russian security guarantees.

[FEMA Camp Administrator]

Pashinian reportedly trying to have his cake and eat it too looking for economic cooperation with EU while maintaining Russian security guarantees.

Not entirely surprising.

My apologies for being off this story. It's been a busy couple of weeks and I really only have the energy for putting this sort of stuff together on the weekends, which are also taken up by publication work for an old boss of mine, family holidays (tomorrow, presumably), and a personal life.