CA-Gravis: Cox 23, Newsom 22

[Greedo punched first]

Junk poll, or largely divided Democratic vote?

[Greedo punched first]

This poll is a GOP poll for One America News. Likely has a conservative bias.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Its a primary poll

[Strudelcutie4427]

What are the odds of a R v R runoff? To be fair I’m not a fan of the top 2 jungle primary system

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

This poll is a GOP poll for One America News. Likely has a conservative bias.

Likely? More like guaranteed

[Coastal Elitist]

Junk poll, or largely divided Democratic vote?

It's a poll for the primary and only 31% of the total vote is for Republicans. It's not a surprise that it would be D vs R with so many Democrats running a real campaign.

[Coastal Elitist]

What are the odds of a R v R runoff? To be fair I’m not a fan of the top 2 jungle primary system

Not likely. For that to happen, the Democrats would have to evenly split the Democratic vote between them.

[Pouring Rain and Blairing Music]

Who the hell is Albert Mezzetti?

At this point, I'm thinking it won't be Dem-Dem.

[Pandaguineapig]

What are the odds of a R v R runoff? To be fair I’m not a fan of the top 2 jungle primary system

Very unlikely, but if it does happen the top-2 primary will probably be repealed overnight

[KingSweden]

I think we’ll have D v D in the Senate, and possibly D v R in the Governor race

[Coastal Elitist]

Here's the full poll not just a screenshot: https://d2pggiv3o55wnc.cloudfront.net/oann/wp-content/uploads/2018/05/OAN-POLL.pdf

[brand_allen]

Just posted my gripes with this poll over in the Senate poll forum, but here it is for those that never venture over there:

As someone who thinks the term "garbage poll" gets thrown around a little too freely, this poll is absolute garbage, for a multitude of reasons...

1. Gravis would have you believe Trump's favorability is at 47/51%, in *California.*
2. They'd also have you believe that 1 in 4 California *Democrats* views Trump favorably.
3. They'd also have you believe Trump's favorability breaks even with California Latinos (47/48%). Meanwhile, 2016 exits indicated Clinton carried Latinos with 71% of the vote
4. They'd also have you believe that 34% of California African Americans view Trump favorably (only 9% voted for him in 2016).
5. Their sample finds Clinton defeated Trump in 2016 by 14 points. The actual margin was more than double that.

Obviously, I left out several glaring issues (like Cox leading the Governor primary), but yeah, you can throw this one in the dumpster...then set the dumpster on fire.

[Coastal Elitist]

Just posted my gripes with this poll over in the Senate poll forum, but here it is for those that never venture over there:

As someone who thinks the term "garbage poll" gets thrown around a little too freely, this poll is absolute garbage, for a multitude of reasons...

1. Gravis would have you believe Trump's favorability is at 47/51%, in *California.*
2. They'd also have you believe that 1 in 4 California *Democrats* views Trump favorably.
3. They'd also have you believe Trump's favorability breaks even with California Latinos (47/48%). Meanwhile, 2016 exits indicated Clinton carried Latinos with 71% of the vote
4. They'd also have you believe that 34% of California African Americans view Trump favorably (only 9% voted for him in 2016).
5. Their sample finds Clinton defeated Trump in 2016 by 14 points. The actual margin was more than double that.

Obviously, I left out several glaring issues (like Cox leading the Governor primary), but yeah, you can throw this one in the dumpster...then set the dumpster on fire.

What about the sample being 45% Democrat, 28% Independent or other and 27% Republican. Also if you look at the crosstabs for the Governor race, it's pretty much inline with other polls.

[mds32]

Just posted my gripes with this poll over in the Senate poll forum, but here it is for those that never venture over there:

As someone who thinks the term "garbage poll" gets thrown around a little too freely, this poll is absolute garbage, for a multitude of reasons...

1. Gravis would have you believe Trump's favorability is at 47/51%, in *California.*
2. They'd also have you believe that 1 in 4 California *Democrats* views Trump favorably.
3. They'd also have you believe Trump's favorability breaks even with California Latinos (47/48%). Meanwhile, 2016 exits indicated Clinton carried Latinos with 71% of the vote
4. They'd also have you believe that 34% of California African Americans view Trump favorably (only 9% voted for him in 2016).
5. Their sample finds Clinton defeated Trump in 2016 by 14 points. The actual margin was more than double that.

Obviously, I left out several glaring issues (like Cox leading the Governor primary), but yeah, you can throw this one in the dumpster...then set the dumpster on fire.

What about the sample being 45% Democrat, 28% Independent or other and 27% Republican. Also if you look at the crosstabs for the Governor race, it's pretty much inline with other polls.

I agree with you. I don't see how this poll is that far off. I see Cox making the runoff. I am also glad they didn't give any time for Mr. Little (aka bigoted jerk) and polled real Republicans in the Senate race instead.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

I'm holding out a bit of hope in this race.  I think Cox can keep it within single digits and has a real chance if Newsom slips up (which is quite possible).  I have been kind of hoping that Newsom will have some big scandal come out right before the jungle primary so that Democrats don't really have enough time to consolidate, and we wind up with Cox vs. Allen in California, with several Democrats just behind Allen.

Seriously, though, I think placing first in the jungle would be a big morale booster for the Cox campaign and could give them momentum into the general election.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

California is not electing a Republican Governor this year.

Why don't you trust a poll that has Trump's approval at 45%??? Surely that will be the case in California in 2018!!!

[mds32]

I'm holding out a bit of hope in this race.  I think Cox can keep it within single digits and has a real chance if Newsom slips up (which is quite possible).  I have been kind of hoping that Newsom will have some big scandal come out right before the jungle primary so that Democrats don't really have enough time to consolidate, and we wind up with Cox vs. Allen in California, with several Democrats just behind Allen.

Seriously, though, I think placing first in the jungle would be a big morale booster for the Cox campaign and could give them momentum into the general election.

I'll say this, it'll give the GOP a morale boost in CA in general. It'll help prove to Cox that he can probably keep the race below a 20-point loss which the CA GOP will need in order to attempt to save their House seats.

[Ye We Can]

Hmmm... I thought the Second Coming was Governor Sununu, but it may be John Cox after all.

[Person Man]

Hmmm... I thought the Second Coming was Governor Sununu, but it may be John Cox after all.

The true savior rode down a golden escalator to be with us.

[ON Progressive]

Trump approval at 45% makes this poll automatic trash. If he was at 45% in CA, he'd be well over 60% nationwide at worst.

[KingSweden]

I'm holding out a bit of hope in this race.  I think Cox can keep it within single digits and has a real chance if Newsom slips up (which is quite possible).  I have been kind of hoping that Newsom will have some big scandal come out right before the jungle primary so that Democrats don't really have enough time to consolidate, and we wind up with Cox vs. Allen in California, with several Democrats just behind Allen.

Seriously, though, I think placing first in the jungle would be a big morale booster for the Cox campaign and could give them momentum into the general election.

EC - while I disagree with your politics I’ve always thought of you as a clear-eyed observer/poster. I hope you don’t actually believe Cox will come within single digits

[Politician]

Anyone who believes that there’s a non-zero chance that a Republican will win this race is not only ignorant but willfully ignorant.

[President Johnson]

It would be funny if Cox in fact comes out on top with Newsom second. It's obviously not going to happen, but would be funny. I'm sure some Trumpers would start pretending that California is heavily trending Republican.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

I'm holding out a bit of hope in this race.  I think Cox can keep it within single digits and has a real chance if Newsom slips up (which is quite possible).  I have been kind of hoping that Newsom will have some big scandal come out right before the jungle primary so that Democrats don't really have enough time to consolidate, and we wind up with Cox vs. Allen in California, with several Democrats just behind Allen.

Seriously, though, I think placing first in the jungle would be a big morale booster for the Cox campaign and could give them momentum into the general election.

Just ask Governor Kashkari.

[Thunder98]

It's going to be Villaraigosa vs Newsom. (I also voted for Villaraigosa)