NY-22: Tenney says many mass shooters “end up being Democrats”

[HAnnA MArin County]

Deplorable. Vote her out in November, the good people of NY-22!

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Deplorable. Vote her out in November, the good people of NY-22!

"Good people of NY-22"

But they voted for Trump by more than a 15% margin.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Tenney is trailing Brindisi 40%-47%

45%-55% when pushed.

http://www.uticaod.com/news/20180502/poll-brindisi-ahead-of-tenney-in-race-for-congress

Brindisi is also winning 68% of 18-34 year olds, 59% of women, and 57% of independents.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Tenney is trailing Brindisi 40%-47%

45%-55% when pushed.

http://www.uticaod.com/news/20180502/poll-brindisi-ahead-of-tenney-in-race-for-congress

Brindisi is also winning 68% of 18-34 year olds, 59% of women, and 57% of independents.

Strong Lean D to Likely D.

[Politician]

Tenney is on track to get blanched.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Deplorable. Vote her out in November, the good people of NY-22!

"Good people of NY-22"

But they voted for Trump by more than a 15% margin.

Hillary was a pretty weak candidate to lose the last pro-choice Republican's district by that much.

[DrScholl]

Deplorable. Vote her out in November, the good people of NY-22!

"Good people of NY-22"

But they voted for Trump by more than a 15% margin.

Hillary was a pretty weak candidate to lose the last pro-choice Republican's district by that much.

It's still one of the most conservative districts in the state and Hanna almost lost the primary Tenney. It's not some liberal bastion.

[Kodak]

Deplorable. Vote her out in November, the good people of NY-22!

"Good people of NY-22"

But they voted for Trump by more than a 15% margin.

Hillary was a pretty weak candidate to lose the last pro-choice Republican's district by that much.

It's still one of the most conservative districts in the state and Hanna almost lost the primary Tenney. It's not some liberal bastion.

Even if it's one of the most conservative districts in the state, it's still not a particularly conservative district. It nearly voted for Obama in 2012. Like many similar districts in the Midwest, it's full of one-time Republican voters who liked Trump and won't show up to vote in 2018.

[NOVA Green]

Deplorable. Vote her out in November, the good people of NY-22!

"Good people of NY-22"

But they voted for Trump by more than a 15% margin.

Hillary was a pretty weak candidate to lose the last pro-choice Republican's district by that much.

It's still one of the most conservative districts in the state and Hanna almost lost the primary Tenney. It's not some liberal bastion.

Even if it's one of the most conservative districts in the state, it's still not a particularly conservative district. It nearly voted for Obama in 2012. Like many similar districts in the Midwest, it's full of one-time Republican voters who liked Trump and won't show up to vote in 2018.

It's also fairly old, white, with a large rural component in a non GE year....

Still, it's not as if we haven't seen some significant swings among these types of voters in the Special Elections thus  far in 2017 > 2018....

This area also does have a decent chunk of Ancestral Democratic type voters like PA-18, including a couple decent sized historic manufacturing towns, a history of elasticity and competitive Congressional Elections....

Would definitely consider this to be a prime flip district, and will be aggressively targeted by both the DNC and RNC, unless the 'Pub polling numbers start to tank further closer to the election here and/or the RNC is running triage on multiple other CDs and has to strategically cut some loose in order to protect key members and congressional delegations, in which case this would likely be viewed as a sacrifice district with potential to pickup in a few years and more favorable national electoral environment.

[Xing]

Tenney is trailing Brindisi 40%-47%

45%-55% when pushed.

http://www.uticaod.com/news/20180502/poll-brindisi-ahead-of-tenney-in-race-for-congress

Brindisi is also winning 68% of 18-34 year olds, 59% of women, and 57% of independents.

[Pericles]

Very weird to see a Republican get blanched in a Trump +16 district(and even outside of that it's still not a Democratic-leaning district or any kind of reverse Arkansas).

[Xing]

Very weird to see a Republican get blanched in a Trump +16 district(and even outside of that it's still not a Democratic-leaning district or any kind of reverse Arkansas).

Well, in 2010 there were House seats like FL-08, IL-17, PA-08, PA-11, WI-08, where Obama won decisively in 2008, but the Democratic incumbents got crushed.

[GMantis]

Tenney is trailing Brindisi 40%-47%

45%-55% when pushed.

http://www.uticaod.com/news/20180502/poll-brindisi-ahead-of-tenney-in-race-for-congress

Brindisi is also winning 68% of 18-34 year olds, 59% of women, and 57% of independents.

I've only sporadically visited this forum the last few years, so did I miss Zogby starting to be considered a reliable pollster?