1988: Lloyd Bentsen/Michael Dukakis (flipped ticket) vs. Bush/Quayle

[blacknwhiterose]

Let's go back to 1988 and pretend that the veteran Texas politician Lloyd Bentsen runs and wins the '88 Democratic Primary and selects the younger Massachusetts governor as his running mate.  What changes with the Democratic ticket flipped?  Republican side remains the same.  Discuss with maps.

[Lechasseur]

Who knows? At anyrate I think it would have been a very very close election, maybe Bentsen narrowly wins.

[YPestis25]

Who knows? At anyrate I think it would have been a very very close election, maybe Bentsen narrowly wins.

I tend to agree with this. I think this map is a narrow Bentsen win, but it could just as easily go the other way. Several states were really tough calls, namely Texas, Michigan and California.

[UWS]

Who knows? At anyrate I think it would have been a very very close election, maybe Bentsen narrowly wins.

I tend to agree with this. I think this map is a narrow Bentsen win, but it could just as easily go the other way. Several states were really tough calls, namely Texas, Michigan and California.

Yep with 2 Texans at the top of their tickets it makes Texas quite competitive.

[Sir Mohamed]

I'm being bold and predict a narrow Bentsen win. He wouldn't have made Dukakis' blunders and the polls in summer showed that a victory for the Dems was possible. Dukakis was just the wrong dude that year.

✓ Senator Lloyd Bentsen (D-TX)/Governor Michael Dukakis (D-MA): 282 EVs.; 50.0%
Vice President George Bush (R-TX)/Senator Dan Quayle (R-IN): 256 EVs.; 49.1%

[Mr. Smith]

Bentsen/Dukakis 50% pv
Bush/Quayle 46% pv

Closest States:

Texas
Michigan
Ohio
New Jersey
North Carolina

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

Bentsen/Dukakis 50% pv
Bush/Quayle 46% pv

Closest States:

Texas
Michigan
Ohio
New Jersey
North Carolina

It seems that the other maps don't take the farm crisis into account like yours does. Any Democratic victory in 1988 likely would have included Montana and at least one of the Dakotas.

[blacknwhiterose]

This one is a tough one for me.  By simply flipping the ticket, would Bush/Quayle have lost?  i.e. was Dukakis really that poor of a candidate?  I'm inclined to say that Bush/Quayle also benefitted from running as Reagan's 3rd term as much if not more than Dukakis campaign gaffes.  That said, I have zero doubt Bentsen would have been a better fit for the top of the ticket, and would have done a better job of warming up the conservative Democrat elements of the party that were still relevant at that time.  Texas certainly would have been a bloodbath, but I've got Bush still narrowly coming out on top while Bentsen pulls down petroleum state Louisiana, and carries the mid south states of Arkansas, Missouri, Kentucky, and narrowly looses Tennessee and Oklahoma.  Bush holds the deep south, including carrying Florida comfortably.  California, Michigan, Montana, and South Dakota are also close calls - Bush gets a clutch boost from a last-minute hard push from a Ronald Reagan road trip through California to excite the state's Republican base.

Bush/Quayle 302 EVs 50.5%
Bentsen/Dukakis 236 EVs 48.5%

[Torrain]

I wonder how close the Texas results would come compared to the 1970 Tx Senate race, where Bentsen beat Bush by around four points.

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

I wonder how close the Texas results would come compared to the 1970 Tx Senate race, where Bentsen beat Bush by around four points.

Bentsen by 2-3, probably.