Sabato Crystal Ball: 28 shifts to the Democrats, Paul Ryan no longer safe

[Beet]

http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/our-final-2016-picks/

They did not do too badly on their House ratings in 2016 actually.

They overestimated the Dems by 7 seats. They overestimated the Dems in 2014 as well, by 13 seats. Larry lost his credibility, along with a lot of the establishment, by letting their bias get in the way of their objectivity. Now the Trumpers can just cry Fake News at this stuff.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/our-final-2016-picks/

They did not do too badly on their House ratings in 2016 actually.

They overestimated the Dems by 7 seats. They overestimated the Dems in 2014 as well, by 13 seats. Larry lost his credibility, along with a lot of the establishment, by letting their bias get in the way of their objectivity. Now the Trumpers can just cry Fake News at this stuff.

They underestimated Democrats in 2012 and 2010.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Errors:

AZ-01
CA-07
MN-08

AZ-02
GA-12
IA-01
ME-02
NV-04
NY-24
TX-23

this is D+4 errors, not D+13 errors.

[Doimper]

http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/our-final-2016-picks/

They did not do too badly on their House ratings in 2016 actually.

They overestimated the Dems by 7 seats. They overestimated the Dems in 2014 as well, by 13 seats. Larry lost his credibility, along with a lot of the establishment, by letting their bias get in the way of their objectivity. Now the Trumpers can just cry Fake News at this stuff.

They underestimated Democrats in 2012 and 2010.

In retrospect, the 2010 Senate ratings are insane. They rated CA, WA, and CT Lean D.

[Ebsy]

Errors:

AZ-01
CA-07
MN-08

AZ-02
GA-12
IA-01
ME-02
NV-04
NY-24
TX-23

this is D+4 errors, not D+13 errors.

Like I said, they have not done too badly. A lot of the seats in the "lean" categories are pure toss ups, and rating them as lean acknowledges that there is a good chance that you are going to be wrong.

[Dr. MB]

Don't see how Ryan was safe in the first place.

[DemocraticKing]

I'm kind of baffled that IL-12 is now Tossup. Yeah, it's ancestrally Democratic, and Brendan Kelly is a great recruit, but I think Bost has a least an advantage.

Bost isn't strong exactly, he just got lucky with 2014 and 2016 being good years for Rs, especially in his region. Now he has to face the music in 2018.