Would Kirsten Gillibrand be a lock to win Pennsylvania?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

She's from a neighboring state after all.

[Pandaguineapig]

That's not how it works, Clinton also was from NY(so is Trump for that matter), Romney, and Gore also lost not only their home states but every bordering state as well.

[henster]

She has done well in Upstate NY which resembles a lot of PA especially NEPA but Hillary also did well there in her runs. Gillibrand also seems like a perfect candidate for the Philly suburbs considering the soccer mom vibe she gives off.

[TML]

If she duplicates Hillary's strategy, then I cannot guarantee that she would win. On the other hand, if she takes a page from Bernie Sanders' book, then I believe she will most likely win.

[Mr. Morden]

That's not how it works, Clinton also was from NY

Yes, and she won NY and every bordering state (except Sanders's home state of Vermont) in the primaries. 

[bagelman]

Yes, and if she picks Sherrod Brown as her running mate she'll be competitive in West Virginia and Kentucky as well, opening the door for a real landslide.

[Mr. Smith]

She has done well in Upstate NY which resembles a lot of PA especially NEPA but Hillary also did well there in her runs. Gillibrand also seems like a perfect candidate for the Philly suburbs considering the soccer mom vibe she gives off.

Indeed, the soccer mom vibe would likely get her just the right margins in Bucks, Philly, and Chester to offset any further gains...but I imagine she'd have decent clout in NEPA considering the district she represented before being Senator.

Hillary never had the benefit of appearing like that.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Lean Yes. Bucks, Chester, Montgomery will continue to buck hard against Trump.

I'm sure she will be able to pick up a couple votes in Luzerne, Lackawanna, Monroe, and Erie counties by simply NOT being Hillary Clinton and will get more by attacking Trump on his false promises and his policies that have or will harm them.

[President Johnson]

No, she's basically Hillary 2.0 with an obsession for identity politics.

[Rookie Yinzer]

No, she's basically Hillary 2.0 with an obsession for identity politics.

[Coolface Sock #42069]

Freedom Thread, BRTD.

[History505]

Being from a neighboring state doesn't matter. Clinton was a senator from a state that was neighboring it, did she win it? No. It will all depend on how Gillibrand campaigns and if she is able provide a message that connects to the people of Pennsylvania.

[History505]

No, she's basically Hillary 2.0 with an obsession for identity politics.

Labeling someone who we haven't seen campaigned yet is ridiculous, let's give each candidate a chance to see if they will resonate.

[Progressive]

No, she's basically Hillary 2.0 with an obsession for identity politics.

Labeling someone who we haven't seen campaigned yet is ridiculous, let's give each candidate a chance to see if they will resonate.

Identity politics = a silly label used when people acknowledge that straight, white, Christian men are not the default.

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

No? just because she's from New York doesn't mean there'd be much of a favorite daughter effect in PA.

[here2view]

I think she would win the state, but she's no where near a lock.

[Unapologetic Chinaperson]

No, she's basically Hillary 2.0 with an obsession for identity politics.

Labeling someone who we haven't seen campaigned yet is ridiculous, let's give each candidate a chance to see if they will resonate.

Identity politics = a silly label used when people acknowledge that straight, white, Christian men are not the default.

Nah, "identity politics" perfectly defines politics that centers straight, white Christian men as the center of the universe.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

She'd probably win it around the same margin Obama won it in 2012.

[indietraveler]

No. Her (and the party) need to address this region and not assume anything.

[Podgy the Bear]

She's definitely not a lock.  The only Democrat with a probable lock on Pennsylvania is Biden.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

She's not a lock, but she's definitely one of the candidates who would probably win it, and it's due to her suburban appeal.

[Rookie Yinzer]

I assume this was made to mock the Harris-NV post.

This thread was made first.

[Grassroots]

If anything, she would make it harder for dems to win PA.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Ever thought that we all have the darn stupidest commentary that hardly any actual voter really gives a flying sh!t about?

[PragmaticPopulist]

I wouldn't say that she'd be a lock, but I could see her being a more clear favorite than HRC was to carrying it. She might get close to Ed Rendell margins in the Philly suburbs, and definitely doing better to the Wyoming Valley.