2012: President Palin vs. Obama

[Vespucci]

Obama doesn't run in 2008 and John Edwards wins the nomination. Edwards's scandals cause him to lose to McCain and Palin. McCain dies of a heart attack in 2009 and Palin becomes president. She fails to fix the economy, Democrats make massive gains in 2010, and Obama runs in 2012. What does the map look like?

[SingingAnalyst]

It's hard to imagine less of a landslide than this:

Barack Obama / Joe Biden (D) 55% / 469 EV
Sarah Palin / Tim Pawlenty (R) 43% / 69 EV

[NewYorkExpress]

It's hard to imagine less of a landslide than this:

Barack Obama / Joe Biden (D) 55% / 469 EV
Sarah Palin / Tim Pawlenty (R) 43% / 69 EV

I don't care how incompetent the incumbent is. A black man isn't winning Mississippi or Louisiana.

[bagelman]

[HomestarSB9]

Sen. Barack Obama (D-IL) / Fmr. Gov. Ed Rendell (D-PA) - 455 EVs
Pres. Sarah Palin (R-AK) / Sen. Jim Inhofe (R-OK) - 83 EVs

[RC]

Its a blowout, 470-68 Obama

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

It's hard to imagine less of a landslide than this:

Barack Obama / Joe Biden (D) 55% / 469 EV
Sarah Palin / Tim Pawlenty (R) 43% / 69 EV

I don't care how incompetent the incumbent is. A black man isn't winning Mississippi or Louisiana.

I don't think that's the case, many Southern whites might be racist, but if it's such a massive national landslide, I think just enough could flip to Obama to give him those states. he really only needs 20% of the white vote in Mississippi and 25% in Louisiana, if he's getting 95%+ of the black vote and 2008 level turnout.

[NewYorkExpress]

It's hard to imagine less of a landslide than this:

Barack Obama / Joe Biden (D) 55% / 469 EV
Sarah Palin / Tim Pawlenty (R) 43% / 69 EV

I don't care how incompetent the incumbent is. A black man isn't winning Mississippi or Louisiana.

I don't think that's the case, many Southern whites might be racist, but if it's such a massive national landslide, I think just enough could flip to Obama to give him those states. he really only needs 20% of the white vote in Mississippi and 25% in Louisiana, if he's getting 95%+ of the black vote and 2008 level turnout.

He might get 20% of the white vote in North Carolina, Georgia or Missouri (in fact he might even get to 40% in Missouri), but he's not going to hit 20% in a state with a history like Mississippi's, and it's unlikely he gets 25% of the white vote in Louisiana without pandering enough to lose at least 5% of the black vote.