If the Electoral College was abolished tomorrow...

[Catholics vs. Convicts]

...and the president was elected by popular vote, how would that change the general election campaign? Obviously it would de-emphasize the importance of previous swing states. But where would the campaigns spend their time? Would there be any overlap of where the campaigns are targeting their efforts?

For trump in 2020, I think its very easy to just look at where he has had rallies over the past few years. Working class hubs in mostly red and purple states. I doubt they would change the strategy at all from what they have been doing on the donald trump ego tour.

For the Democrats though, would they just focus in getting enthusiasm and turnout up in their safe states like NY, CA, IL, MA and other massive cities? Would they venture out, at all, into rural, middle America?

[This user has not been convicted of 34 felonies]

Obviously the Dems would still target most of the same states, though I imagine they would shift focus to downballot races in KS, ME, NC, AZ, etc. Trump would go all out in CA to try and make enough gains there to make a difference, same with states like TX and FL. I imagine he goes into GA, PA, and OH with the intent to keep the margins as favorable to him as possible.

[beaver2.0]

The Democrats have a better chance of winning.

[Progressive Pessimist]

The Democrats instantly become favored while the Republicans pout.

What states they target though is actually a very tricky question though because it is a complete unknown as to what a popular vote based national election looks like in this country. If I had to guess it would become a race based more on campaigning in states where there are significant competitive down-ballot races.

[indietraveler]

I wish. I wonder if this would actually happen if turnout would increase significantly. If you're stuck in a strong D or R state and vote the opposite of your state I'm sure there's less motivation to turn out.

Hopefully it would be the end of the current republican party as we know it.

[Troll and Sock Puppet. Delete my ACCOUNT!]

The Democrats instantly become favored while the Republicans pout.

What states they target though is actually a very tricky question though because it is a complete unknown as to what a popular vote based national election looks like in this country. If I had to guess it would become a race based more on campaigning in states where there are significant competitive down-ballot races.

The five most populous states in the U.S. today are (in order): CA, TX, FL, NY, and IL. I imagine those five would be the battleground states instead of the current major battleground of WI, MI, PA, FL, OH, NC, GA, and AZ.

[DrScholl]

Democrats would most certainly target southern states more, because the black electorate there would actually be decisive. And for aesthetic reasons they could go to all 50 states without it being a waste of time and resources.

[Progressive Pessimist]

The Democrats instantly become favored while the Republicans pout.

What states they target though is actually a very tricky question though because it is a complete unknown as to what a popular vote based national election looks like in this country. If I had to guess it would become a race based more on campaigning in states where there are significant competitive down-ballot races.

The five most populous states in the U.S. today are (in order): CA, TX, FL, NY, and IL. I imagine those five would be the battleground states instead of the current major battleground of WI, MI, PA, FL, OH, NC, GA, and AZ.

Sure, those states would be targeted but I still don't think peoples' voting patterns would change very much. Trump would still probably be wasting his time if he campaigned in California for instance.

I seriously cannot even picture what this kind of election would look like. I guess after at least one election cycle like this the parties would change their approaches a bit to try and win over more voters rather than trying to win over specific voters. I still think it would all be for the better even though it might seem "unfair" for the GOP from the get-go. That's the way the cookie crumbles, I guess, for this country to have a real democratic process.

[Donald Trump’s Toupée]

The Democrats instantly become favored while the Republicans pout.

What states they target though is actually a very tricky question though because it is a complete unknown as to what a popular vote based national election looks like in this country. If I had to guess it would become a race based more on campaigning in states where there are significant competitive down-ballot races.

You contradicted yourself. You claim in the second paragraph that you (rightly) don’t know what a PV election would look like. Yet you still deduce that the Dems would be instantly favored. #partisanhack

[Progressive Pessimist]

The Democrats instantly become favored while the Republicans pout.

What states they target though is actually a very tricky question though because it is a complete unknown as to what a popular vote based national election looks like in this country. If I had to guess it would become a race based more on campaigning in states where there are significant competitive down-ballot races.

You contradicted yourself. You claim in the second paragraph that you (rightly) don’t know what a PV election would look like. Yet you still deduce that the Dems would be instantly favored. #partisanhack

Thanks for the very obnoxious response. 

I didn't contradict myself. What I meant by not being able to picture what the election would look like, I mean that with Democrats being favored in mind. If they don't have to campaign in the high populations areas where they already are, and still will be favored, since I don't expect Trump and the GOP to be able to get away with doing a complete 180 overnight, where do they campaign? That's why I think the election would become more about the Senate.

[538Electoral]

The parties would only go to New York, Los Angeles and Chicago and a few other big cities. No one would care about the rural areas.

[Suburbia]

The Democrats instantly become favored while the Republicans pout.

What states they target though is actually a very tricky question though because it is a complete unknown as to what a popular vote based national election looks like in this country. If I had to guess it would become a race based more on campaigning in states where there are significant competitive down-ballot races.

The five most populous states in the U.S. today are (in order) CA, TX, FL, NY, and IL. I imagine those five would be the battleground states instead of the current major battleground of WI, MI, PA, FL, OH, NC, GA, and AZ.

Yes, in 1996, Dole was trying to win California, NY, IL.

[morgankingsley]

The Democrats instantly become favored while the Republicans pout.

What states they target though is actually a very tricky question though because it is a complete unknown as to what a popular vote based national election looks like in this country. If I had to guess it would become a race based more on campaigning in states where there are significant competitive down-ballot races.

The five most populous states in the U.S. today are (in order) CA, TX, FL, NY, and IL. I imagine those five would be the battleground states instead of the current major battleground of WI, MI, PA, FL, OH, NC, GA, and AZ.

Yes, in 1996, Dole was trying to win California, NY, IL.

that was 2 decades ago

[R.P. McM]

The Democrats instantly become favored while the Republicans pout.

What states they target though is actually a very tricky question though because it is a complete unknown as to what a popular vote based national election looks like in this country. If I had to guess it would become a race based more on campaigning in states where there are significant competitive down-ballot races.

The five most populous states in the U.S. today are (in order) CA, TX, FL, NY, and IL. I imagine those five would be the battleground states instead of the current major battleground of WI, MI, PA, FL, OH, NC, GA, and AZ.

Yes, in 1996, Dole was trying to win California, NY, IL.

that was 2 decades ago

When we last had a relatively unified country, and Republicans embarked on their ankle-biting crusade.

[Skill and Chance]

Surprisingly little would change as long as Senate and (to a lesser extent) US House elections still have the same rules.  It probably helps Democrats on net in the first couple of elections under the new rules, but that's not a safe assumption in the long run.  Democrats would still need to win the house and senate to accomplish much of anything, so if they rely on a majority PV coalition concentrated in the largest states, the outcome would be a perpetual 2011 style standoff between the parties.  But remember, California and Texas also have numerically gigantic rural populations the GOP turnout machine hasn't really touched.

If we elected the president by popular vote and gave both houses of congress proportional representation that would clearly favor Democrats and/or push the GOP left quickly. 

A pure parliamentary system with proportional representation would lead to a Christian Democracy movement (think JBE and Marco Rubio in a coalition) consistently winning a plurality and occasionally an outright majority of the seats.  It would have to be on the wrong side of a 2008 or 1932 economy to be forced out of the governing coalition.

[Epaminondas]

The parties would only go to New York, Los Angeles and Chicago and a few other big cities. No one would care about the rural areas.

What do you think is happening under the current rules?

Number of campaign stops during 2016 campaign:



It beggars belief that Republicans from Red states actually believe they would lose their electoral importance under the popular vote. Nobody cares about them as it is, since their vote is locked in.

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

The parties would only go to New York, Los Angeles and Chicago and a few other big cities. No one would care about the rural areas.

wow i was unaware that NYC LA and Chicago made up half the us population!

[Suburbia]

Democrats would most certainly target southern states more, because the black electorate there would actually be decisive. And for aesthetic reasons they could go to all 50 states without it being a waste of time and resources.

In mid-October 1996, President Clinton and the Democrats were campaigning in Louisiana, Alabama, Texas, etc.

Imagine that today!! The stupid Electoral College and starting with Karl Rove, brought in this blue-state-red state-swing state garbage in 2000 by this narrow base turnout crap that forces candidates to campaign in the same states for days and weeks. That must be boring. OH, PA, WI, FL, NV are the only states that matter? And you want to know why most Americans don't vote because the popular vote doesn't matter.

“At this point, Florida looks in trouble, North Carolina looks in trouble, they don’t even know who their people are in Ohio,” said Charlie Harper, a prominent conservative writer who runs a think tank in Georgia, where Trump is sliding in the polls. “He can go have lunch in Connecticut and be home for supper, but the map is changing rapidly in the opposite direction. Hillary Clinton is not going to move in to defend Connecticut just because Trump went there.”

https://www.politico.com/story/2016/08/trump-connecticut-why-is-he-campaigning-there-226959

https://www.cnn.com/ALLPOLITICS/1996/candidates/calendar/october/

[Florida Man for Crime]

The parties would only go to New York, Los Angeles and Chicago and a few other big cities. No one would care about the rural areas.

wow i was unaware that NYC LA and Chicago made up half the us population!

Those 3 cities have 15.3 million people, which works out to 4.7% of the total U.S. population. So naturally the only places that anyone would ever campaign is in those cities. That is all you need to get a majority, 4.7% and you win!

[ON Progressive]

The parties would only go to New York, Los Angeles and Chicago and a few other big cities. No one would care about the rural areas.

If this were true, campaigns would never go to rural areas in swing states because it wouldn't be worth it if you can just go to the urban areas. However, they do go to rural areas in swing states which ruins your entire premise.