Hypothetical Gay Marriage Referendums round world?

[America Needs R'hllor]

It would win a solid majority in Israel.

Depends if Arabs turnout is over 30%.

58-42 yes I would say, with with 68-32 among Jewish voters.

But that really depends if it's a referendum on SSM or civil unions in general

I find it hard to imagine a large Arab turnout for this, especially if their politicians don't mobilize them.
To be honest, I'd be very interested in seeing this referendum playing out in Israel. It would expose the homophobes in parties like the Joint Arab List and the Jewish Home, despite their leaders trying to appear modern and friendly.

[mvd10]

The Netherlands probably would vote 90-10 in favour (if non-SGP voters would even bother to turn out). The 10% would be an interesting coalition of SGP voters, the majority of CU voters, a lot of DENK voters, the few hold-outs in the CDA (lol) and some diehard homophobes in the PVV. And even then 10% is generous.

I have a hard time believing any country, even the Netherlands, would support SSM 90-10 with secret ballots in a legitimate referendum.

SSM has been here for 16 years and there is essentially no reason to repeal it. 50% of Dutch identify as non-religious and even though there are a lot of them who would not accept their child being gay I don't see them voting for repealing gay marriage (being "pro-gay" =/= opposing repealing SSM when it has been in effect for nearly two decades). Of the 45% who identify as Catholic or Protestant a lot of them aren't practicing, so they're probably relatively close to non-religious people on this issue. Practicing Catholics tend to be quite cool about gay marriage. Practicing Protestants probably still oppose SSM (as they're the CU/SGP voters plus the CDA hold-outs). The Muslims (5%) probably are strongly opposed to SSM. 90-10 is a bit hyperbolic, but I really don't see the opposition cracking 15% if supporters even bother to turn out. CU and SGP are the only parties which still officially oppose it, and they're at 5% or so. An Eurobarometer poll from 2006 already showed 82% support for SSM, while Belgium was at 62% and Germany was at 52%. A referendum in 2001 would have been interesting and more competitive, but the Dutch just aren't religious and it's been 16 years since anyone even cared about this issue. Imagine a SSM referendum in New York in 2030 or so. There still is a "my child better not be one of them" attitude in a lot of rural places, but homophobia doesn't manifest itself in opposing something that has been legal for 16 years by now. When SSM was first adopted a lot of people though the gay rights issue was resolved for once and for all, but that was naive.

[Santander]

Yes, of course I agree that a referendum wouldn't be close. As you said, the exact numbers would depend on the turnout.

[DavidB.]

With similar turnout to the GE it would be something like 85/15 in the Netherlands, I think, maybe even slightly lower. "No" would overperform a little in the big cities (ironically) and by a lot in the Bible Belt, probably even winning municipalities like Urk and Staphorst. I also think that due to social conservatism, "no" would overperform in Eastern Brabant and Limburg. There are quite some people who cannot be bothered to truly oppose SSM but who would not vote for it were it on the ballot. "Yes" would do best in Randstad suburbs, in the "progressive belt", and in areas with a Socialist history. Least "yes" provinces would be Overijssel and Limburg; most "yes" would be Utrecht and Noord-Holland.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

For the UK the biggest opposition would be in certain ethnic minority districts (big NOs in Bradford West, Birmingham Hall Green, etc especially). Outside of that it would look similar to the AV referendum map on a big swing obviously.

[mvd10]

With similar turnout to the GE it would be something like 85/15 in the Netherlands, I think, maybe even slightly lower. "No" would overperform a little in the big cities (ironically) and by a lot in the Bible Belt, probably even winning municipalities like Urk and Staphorst. I also think that due to social conservatism, "no" would overperform in Eastern Brabant and Limburg. There are quite some people who cannot be bothered to truly oppose SSM but who would not vote for it were it on the ballot. "Yes" would do best in Randstad suburbs, in the "progressive belt", and in areas with a Socialist history. Least "yes" provinces would be Overijssel and Limburg; most "yes" would be Utrecht and Noord-Holland.

What about Zeeland? I'm not really sure whether Limburg and Eastern Brabant would be that opposed anymore, Catholics are much more accepting of homosexuality than Protestants in the Netherlands according to the SCP (Catholics even are more likely to vote for secular parties, but I suspect Catholics are more likely to be "CINO" anyway). Back in the 90s Catholic areas might have been more opposed but secularization seems to be going very rapidly in Catholic areas.

[lekmanin]

In mississippi, gay marriage would lose.

[mileslunn]

In Canada, gay marriage has been legal since 2005 so would pass easily, probably 70-75% in favour.  By riding, I suspect in a few religious rural ridings in pockets as well as a few heavily ethnic ridings it would get under 50%, but my guess is at most there would be 40 seats where it would fail, possibly fewer than 20 seats.  Likewise in many of the urban core ridings like downtown Toronto or downtown Vancouver area, it would probably get over 90% in favour.

On a global level, it would pass in Canada and the US and a the majority of Latin American countries (fail in almost all Caribbean countries though) although GDP per capita probably is the best guess passing those with per capita GDP over $10,000 US dollars and failing in those below $5,000 USD while those in between 5K to 10K could go either way.  In Europe, it would be divided along the line of the Iron Curtain passing in every Western European country and failing in every Eastern European country.  In Africa it would fail in every country including South Africa and in most cases probably with over 90% against.  In Oceania, pass in Australia and New Zealand, fail in all the smaller islands.  In Asia fail in most.  Israel is the only one I am fairly confident it would pass in.  Might pass in Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Hong Kong but probably fail elsewhere although in countries like Vietnam and China I wouldn't be surprised if it got as much as 40% support.  In most of the predominately Muslim countries, would fail massively.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

https://www.prri.org/spotlight/map-every-states-opinion-on-same-sex-marriage/

In 2015, this was what the states of America thought of the issue. Since then, SSM support has been increased by seven percent.

http://www.pewforum.org/fact-sheet/changing-attitudes-on-gay-marriage/

Assuming (obviously this is crude) that all states see a boost of seven percent in their approval of SSM, then the states with lowest approvals would be Mississippi and Alabama (39% approval), Arkansas (43%), West Virginia (44%), Tennessee and South Carolina (46%), Kentucky (47%), Wyoming (48%),  Louisiana (49%), Utah (50%), Georgia, North Carolina and South Dakota (51%) and Missouri, Oklahoma, Montana and Indiana (54%).

I wonder if there would be any Hillary/Anti-SSM counties.

[mileslunn]

https://www.prri.org/spotlight/map-every-states-opinion-on-same-sex-marriage/

In 2015, this was what the states of America thought of the issue. Since then, SSM support has been increased by seven percent.

http://www.pewforum.org/fact-sheet/changing-attitudes-on-gay-marriage/

Assuming (obviously this is crude) that all states see a boost of seven percent in their approval of SSM, then the states with lowest approvals would be Mississippi and Alabama (39% approval), Arkansas (43%), West Virginia (44%), Tennessee and South Carolina (46%), Kentucky (47%), Wyoming (48%),  Louisiana (49%), Utah (50%), Georgia, North Carolina and South Dakota (51%) and Missouri, Oklahoma, Montana and Indiana (54%).

I wonder if there would be any Hillary/Anti-SSM counties.

Yes there would be some anti SSM Hilary counties, the area I can think of off hand is the Black Belt in the Deep South.  Predominately African-American thus always votes Democrat but very socially conservative.  Now true I don't think there are any largely white areas that went for Clinton that would vote against SSM, generally support for SSM amongst whites has been higher than the percentage who vote Democrat, but amongst African-Americans you have many who oppose SSM and vote Democrat (as Dems always get 90%+ amongst African-Americans).  Amongst Latinos I think support for Democrats is a bit higher but I believe more Latinos support SSM today than oppose. 

[parochial boy]

72% support in Switzerland apparently

Including 42% support among Muslims, which is actually... more that I would have expected?

[America Needs R'hllor]

72% support in Switzerland apparently

Including 42% support among Muslims, which is actually... more that I would have expected?

Yet another proof that the lgbtq community shouldn't support completely unrestricted immigration from countries that don't share any of the West's liberal values.

[Kingpoleon]

72% support in Switzerland apparently

Including 42% support among Muslims, which is actually... more that I would have expected?

Yet another proof that the lgbtq community shouldn't support completely unrestricted immigration from countries that don't share any of the West's liberal values.

He who puts the interests of others ahead of his own self-interests, in every case, is a man with honor. He who puts his own self-interests first, for any reason, is a man without honor and without friends.

[parochial boy]

72% support in Switzerland apparently

Including 42% support among Muslims, which is actually... more that I would have expected?

Yet another proof that the lgbtq community shouldn't support completely unrestricted immigration from countries that don't share any of the West's liberal values.

Oh I don't know, when you consider that these people largely come from countries where support for gay marriage would be basically zero; and yet in Switzerland they are almost equally split, suggests they are integrating considerably better than certain people like to make out (I mean, Swiss Muslims are probably most re supportive of gay marriage than most Eastern European migrants are...)

[DavidB.]

Aren't there relatively many Bosnian and Albanian Muslims in Switzerland? Probably more likely to be more secular and supportive of LGBT rights than Muslims from Northern Africa or the Middle East.

[parochial boy]

Aren't there relatively many Bosnian and Albanian Muslims in Switzerland? Probably more likely to be more secular and supportive of LGBT rights than Muslims from Northern Africa or the Middle East.

Yes, but the same is true of Austria. (And I was having a mildly patriotic moment )

The other big community is Turkish, specifically Kurdish (I think Swiss Turks are one of the few Turkish migrant communities who vote against Erdogan)

[Coldstream]

In the UK I’d imagine it’d be something like 60-40 in favour (owing to low turnout, I’d put actual support closer to 70/75%).

Had we had a referendum in 2013 when SSM was legalised I’d imagine it would have only passed 55-45 because the Daily Mail etc would have run a smear campaign and the anti-legalisation Campaign would probably have had more money behind it. It would have been interesting to see to what extent certain Labour, Liberal and Tory MP’s who abstained on the actual vote would have campaigned.

[mileslunn]

Aren't there relatively many Bosnian and Albanian Muslims in Switzerland? Probably more likely to be more secular and supportive of LGBT rights than Muslims from Northern Africa or the Middle East.

That is what I was thinking, mind you there are many examples of Muslims from fairly conservative countries who support gay marriage.  London's current mayor Sadiq Khan voted in favour of gay marriage.  In the German Bundestag all Muslim members voted in favour of gay marriage and in France I believe some did and in the UK I believe most of its Muslim MPs voted for gay marriage.  People adopt to where they live, especially if they were born and raised there.  I've often found in general children of immigrants tend to have values more in line of the country they live in than where their parents came from.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Aren't there relatively many Bosnian and Albanian Muslims in Switzerland? Probably more likely to be more secular and supportive of LGBT rights than Muslims from Northern Africa or the Middle East.

That is what I was thinking, mind you there are many examples of Muslims from fairly conservative countries who support gay marriage.  London's current mayor Sadiq Khan voted in favour of gay marriage.  In the German Bundestag all Muslim members voted in favour of gay marriage and in France I believe some did and in the UK I believe most of its Muslim MPs voted for gay marriage.  People adopt to where they live, especially if they were born and raised there.  I've often found in general children of immigrants tend to have values more in line of the country they live in than where their parents came from.

This is variable, especially in the case of Muslim migrants whose children tend to veer off in either extreme (i.e. become a secular cultural Muslim or else become some sort of Salafi). The MPs in this case are, err, not hugely representative of the community

In Britain in particular, you'd probably have huge losses for SSM in Deobandi Pakistani as well as in Bengal communities, but probably more of a mixed results amongst Turks, Bosniaks and Kurds.

[parochial boy]

Aren't there relatively many Bosnian and Albanian Muslims in Switzerland? Probably more likely to be more secular and supportive of LGBT rights than Muslims from Northern Africa or the Middle East.

That is what I was thinking, mind you there are many examples of Muslims from fairly conservative countries who support gay marriage.  London's current mayor Sadiq Khan voted in favour of gay marriage.  In the German Bundestag all Muslim members voted in favour of gay marriage and in France I believe some did and in the UK I believe most of its Muslim MPs voted for gay marriage.  People adopt to where they live, especially if they were born and raised there.  I've often found in general children of immigrants tend to have values more in line of the country they live in than where their parents came from.

This is variable, especially in the case of Muslim migrants whose children tend to veer off in either extreme (i.e. become a secular cultural Muslim or else become some sort of Salafi). The MPs in this case are, err, not hugely representative of the community

In Britain in particular, you'd probably have huge losses for SSM in Deobandi Pakistani as well as in Bengal communities, but probably more of a mixed results amongst Turks, Bosniaks and Kurds.

I remember some shock horror polling a couple of years ago, suggesting UK Muslims had rather conservative attitudes towards homosexuality, polygamy and the like.

But I wonder now if that sort of polling actually does weighting for the respondees origin, as that could very well be one of the most important demographic factors to consider.

[Lourdes]

It would be pretty interesting to see polling from Muslims in every EU country on their views on gay marriage.