104th Senate Result Tracker - FINAL RESULTS (provisional)

[Sestak]

Provisional final, as of 12:00 AM Monday

Labor	7
Federalist	6
Liberal	2
Dem. Alliance	2
Peace	1

Regional Seats

Fremont			Lincoln			South
SevenEleven	22		Pericles	58		Spark	32
Lumine	11		Jimmy	20		Razze	12

Subregional Seats

Mtn. West			Northeast‎‎‎‎‎‎			Upr. South
Scott	16		Ishan	27		NC Yankee	20
Ut. Neolib	7		Wulfric	10		write-ins	1
Pacific			Grt. Lakes			Deep South
FalterinArc	10		Jimmy	24		DTC	16
			OneJ	19		TimTurner	5

National at-Large Seats

J. Cao	22
DP	19
OBD	19
AGA	19
WB	18
Transit	18
Talley	18
MB	18
Koopa	15	16.78	21.22
Updyke	7	7.53	9.92
Kuumo	5	6.07
HCP	1	1

[Sestak]

And polls are open; here we go!

[Sestak]

Also a note: I will not be counting write-ins in contested races unless they hit at least three first pref votes and are accepted.

In uncontested races I will be counting them once accepted.

[Sestak]

First saved results of the weekend. 17 of 18 seats are allocated; the remaining at-large seat cannot be distributed between the last three candidates.

as of 2:00 AM Friday

	Total	Won	Leads
Labor	8	0	8
Federalist	6	0	6
Liberal	1	0	1
Peace	1	0	1
Dem. Alliance	1	0	1

Regional Seats

Fremont			Lincoln			South
SevenEleven	5		Pericles	2		Spark	7
write-ins	4		write-ins	1		Razze	1

Subregional Seats

Mtn. West			Northeast‎‎‎‎‎‎			Upr. South
Scott	6		Wulfric	1		NC Yankee	4
Ut. Neolib	1		Ishan	2
Pacific			Grt. Lakes			Deep South
FalterinArc	2		Jimmy	2		DTC	3
			OneJ	0		TimTurner	1

National at-Large Seats

AGA	0
DeadPrez	0
Updyke	0
Koopa	1
Kuumo	0
MB	2
OBD	2
Joseph Cao	2
Talleyrand	0
Weatherboy	0
Transit	0

[Sestak]

Know I've been gone for a while, about to update: with one of the more interesting new developments.

For the first time (ever?), we will be tracking the House STV reallocations as we track the rest of the votes cast.

[Sestak]

Next set of saved results.


One day in, and the story? The Senate looks just about as tight as it can be. At present, the Fed-DA bloc is on 8, and the Lab-Pax bloc is on 8, with the Liberals getting two seats. If the Liberal candidates each retain their current caucus positionings from their previous offices, we will end up with a 9-9 Senate, though the ultimate position of the Liberals is very much up in the air.

At present, the right's position is a bit more tenuous here, leading both the closest constituency in the Great Lakes as well as the marginal fifth at-large seat. That being said, again, still very early, and we've seen shockingly low turnout thus far.

NC Yankee and FalterinArc have both failed to gain significant opposition and thus we are projecting them as elected.  SevenEleven and Pericles have had their opposition consolidated into write-in candidacies by Lumine and Jimmy, respectively, so we are now displaying a final round against these candidates. Both these races are still a bit too early to call, but we are not far from being able to call them. Likewise, the Southern and Mountain West races are also somewhat close to projection.

as of 2:30 AM Saturday

	Total	Won	Leads
Labor	7	1	6
Federalist	6	1	5
Liberal	2	0	2
Peace	1	0	1
Dem. Alliance	2	0	2

Regional Seats

Fremont			Lincoln			South
SevenEleven	13		Pericles	19		Spark	15
Lumine	5		Jimmy	9		Razze	5

Subregional Seats

Mtn. West			Northeast‎‎‎‎‎‎			Upr. South
Scott	11		Ishan	11		NC Yankee	10
Ut. Neolib	4		Wulfric	4		write-ins	1
Pacific			Grt. Lakes			Deep South
FalterinArc	6		Jimmy	10		DTC	6
			OneJ	7		TimTurner	2

National at-Large Seats

Koopa	8
Joseph Cao	7
DeadPrez	6
MB	6
Talleyrand	5
Transit	4	6.07
OBD	3	5.08
Weatherboy	4	4.45	4.69	4.69
AGA	3	3.57	4.00	4.00
Kuumo	1	1.91	2.21	2.76
Updyke	1	1.54	1.73

[Sestak]

A little over halfway through the race, and we can now call the other two Fremont races as well as the Lincoln regional race, in which Senator Pericles has been elected to the new legislature, turning away a write-in challenge from Jimmy. We are very close to a call for Spark in the South as well.

No seats have changed hands since twelve hours ago, but there are a couple improvements for Labor. Harvey Updyke has improved his position in the at-large race and now trails Weatherboy by only a tenth of a vote on the final round (though things may shift soon as the quota is about to bump once more). Likewise, OneJ has slightly closed the gap in the Great Lakes, with Jimmy still maintaining a two-vote edge.

as of 3:15 PM Saturday

	Total	Won	Leads
Labor	7	4	3
Federalist	6	1	5
Liberal	2	0	2
Peace	1	0	1
Dem. Alliance	2	0	2

Regional Seats

Fremont			Lincoln			South
SevenEleven	17		Pericles	24		Spark	17
Lumine	5		Jimmy	9		Razze	6

Subregional Seats

Mtn. West			Northeast‎‎‎‎‎‎			Upr. South
Scott	13		Ishan	12		NC Yankee	11
Ut. Neolib	4		Wulfric	5		write-ins	1
Pacific			Grt. Lakes			Deep South
FalterinArc	6		Jimmy	11		DTC	8
			OneJ	9		TimTurner	2

National at-Large Seats

Joseph Cao	9
Koopa	8
DeadPrez	8
Talleyrand	7
Transit	4	7
MB	5	6.98
AGA	4	5
OBD	3	4.48	5.06	6.06
Weatherboy	4	4.58	5.26	5.26	5.27	5.31
Updyke	3	3.71	4.03	4.03	4.04	5.20
Kuumo	1	1	1.40	1.40	1.44
HCP	1	1	1

[Sestak]

Three-quarters of the way for the second day and Labor have - very narrowly - managed to wrest the final at-large seat away from the DA, with Harvey Updyke beating out Weatherboy by under two tenths. This means Labor is presently sitting on 8 seats, with Peace on 1, which would likely decisively tilt the chamber to the left if it were to hold.

We have also called the Southern regional race for Spark, making it all three regional races that have been called and six called races total: four for Labor and two for the Federalists. We are not ready to make any calls in the at-large race, but we can say that both Federalist at-large candidates are now only a few votes away from this.

as of 6:00 PM Saturday

	Total	Won	Leads
Labor	8	4	4
Federalist	6	2	4
Liberal	2	0	2
Peace	1	0	1
Dem. Alliance	1	0	1

Regional Seats

Fremont			Lincoln			South
SevenEleven	17		Pericles	26		Spark	18
Lumine	6		Jimmy	10		Razze	8

Subregional Seats

Mtn. West			Northeast‎‎‎‎‎‎			Upr. South
Scott	13		Ishan	12		NC Yankee	11
Ut. Neolib	4		Wulfric	5		write-ins	1
Pacific			Grt. Lakes			Deep South
FalterinArc	6		Jimmy	12		DTC	9
			OneJ	10		TimTurner	3

National at-Large Seats

Joseph Cao	9
DeadPrez	9
Koopa	8
Talleyrand	8
MB	6	7.09
Transit	4	6.57	6.57	6.57
OBD	5	5.47	5.52	6.52
AGA	5	5.67	5.67	5.68
Updyke	3	3.63	3.64	4.64
Weatherboy	4	4.44	4.46	4.46
Kuumo	1	1	1.02
HCP	1	1	1

[Sestak]

24 hours remain. Over the last few hours Labor appears to have gained something of an advantage on the at-large seats, pushing their fourth candidate Harvey Updyke well past several opposition members. However, with turnout having been abysmally low so far, there is still much that could happen in the future.

We have projected one additional constituency: the Northeast, where Ishan has stretched his lead further. The win ensures the Liberal party will have representation in the 104th Senate.

In addition, we project two at-large seats: for Joseph Cao and for Koopa D. Quick. While 10 first preference votes would not be nearly enough for a projection going by elections from the recent past, the lower turnout this time around means that we think it is extremely unlikely that they do not get the requisite votes to hit a relatively lower final quota. These projections mean that half (nine) of the eighteen seats in the Senate have been projected.

Koopa's win also means the Pacifists will be represented in the Senate, which along with Ishan's win makes it four parties that have already won seats. For the Democratic Alliance we believe it is very unlikely that the party does not elect at least one at-large Senator, meaning that we are now looking at a five-party Senate.

Our current range of possibilities for final seat totals is as follows:
Labor: 7-10
Federalist: 3-6
Liberal: 1-2
Democratic Alliance: 1-2
Peace: 1

Thus we can say for certain that Labor will be the largest single party in the Senate. How large is yet to be determined. With the turnout struggles so far, Sunday will be hugely pivotal.

as of 12:00 AM Sunday

	Total	Won	Leads
Labor	8	4	4
Federalist	6	3	3
Liberal	2	1	1
Peace	1	1	0
Dem. Alliance	1	0	1

Regional Seats

Fremont			Lincoln			South
SevenEleven	18		Pericles	29		Spark	19
Lumine	6		Jimmy	10		Razze	9

Subregional Seats

Mtn. West			Northeast‎‎‎‎‎‎			Upr. South
Scott	13		Ishan	15		NC Yankee	11
Ut. Neolib	4		Wulfric	5		write-ins	1
Pacific			Grt. Lakes			Deep South
FalterinArc	7		Jimmy	13		DTC	10
			OneJ	10		TimTurner	4

National at-Large Seats

Koopa	10
Joseph Cao	10
DeadPrez	9
Talleyrand	8
MB	6	7.4	8.4
OBD	5	7.2	7.2	7.41	7.63
Updyke	5	5	5	5.06	6.06
Transit	4	5.89	5.89	5.89	5.89
AGA	5	5.8	5.8	5.8	5.86
Weatherboy	4	4.31	4.31	4.36	4.37
Kuumo	1	1.2	1.2	1.28
HCP	1	1

[Sestak]

Here we go, everyone. Final hours.

For everyone's context, the pursuit of the Senate majority is razor-tight. Just for context, since the time of this update (2 PM Eastern) I think the last at-large seat has actually changed hands from Updyke to Weatherboy; it's been swapping for the last few hours. Right now, the At-large result appears to be some eight to ten net votes to the right of the presidential race, meaning a close presidential finish likely gives us a Senate that's perfectly evenly split.

Jimmy has taken a larger lead in the Great Lakes, though we aren't ready to call that yet. We have called the other remaining constituency - DTC has won the seat from the Deep South.

In the at-large, we have an easy call for DeadPrez based on his first round count, and a call for Talleyrand based mostly on his first round count as well, noting that he would get decent transfer even if falling below the quota.

Finally, we call a seat for W.X. Transit on the basis that he is getting the lion's share of transfers from Cao and DeadPrez, both of whom we project to finish well above quota. Thus the Democratic Alliance has won a seat and all five parties will be represented.

We seem to be hurtling towards an exciting photo finish. Much remains to still be decided in the final hours.

as of 2:00 PM Sunday

	Total	Won	Leads
Labor	8	5	3
Federalist	6	5	1
Liberal	2	1	1
Peace	1	1	0
Dem. Alliance	1	1	0

Regional Seats

Fremont			Lincoln			South
SevenEleven	19		Pericles	36		Spark	23
Lumine	6		Jimmy	13		Razze	10

Subregional Seats

Mtn. West			Northeast‎‎‎‎‎‎			Upr. South
Scott	14		Ishan	21		NC Yankee	14
Ut. Neolib	4		Wulfric	5		write-ins	1
Pacific			Grt. Lakes			Deep South
FalterinArc	7		Jimmy	17		DTC	12
			OneJ	11		TimTurner	4

National at-Large Seats

DeadPrez	15
Joseph Cao	15
Talleyrand	11
Koopa	10
OBD	10
Transit	5	11.67
AGA	6	8	9.14	9.14
MB	6	6.61	6.75	8.31
Updyke	5	5.36	5.36	6.36
Weatherboy	5	5.67	5.90	5.90
Kuumo	1	1.43	1.57
HCP	1	1	1

[Sestak]

6PM ET update incoming: we have a few more calls, but overall control still looking down to the wire.

[Sestak]

6PM ET update incoming: we have a few more calls, but overall control still looking down to the wire.

Alright. Slightly delayed because the House count is EIGHT ROUNDS LONG, but I'm putting it in now

[Sestak]

Good grief. Had to downsize the font on every entry in the at-large table to get this to fit properly.

Anyway, the right has taken a somewhat substantial lead on the at-large count, and we are also projecting Jimmy as winning in the Great Lakes subregion, meaning that all six contesting Federalist candidates for the Senate are elected. On the at-large, we are calling a seat for OBD and reversing our previous call for Koopa, who has fallen behind after votes have hit a standstill over the last day or so.

as of 6:30 PM Sunday

	Total	Won	Leads
Labor	7	6	1
Federalist	6	6	0
Liberal	2	1	1
Peace	1	0	1
Dem. Alliance	2	1	1

Regional Seats

Fremont			Lincoln			South
SevenEleven	20		Pericles	45		Spark	27
Lumine	9		Jimmy	18		Razze	10

Subregional Seats

Mtn. West			Northeast‎‎‎‎‎‎			Upr. South
Scott	15		Ishan	24		NC Yankee	17
Ut. Neolib	6		Wulfric	8		write-ins	1
Pacific			Grt. Lakes			Deep South
FalterinArc	8		Jimmy	22		DTC	13
			OneJ	14		TimTurner	4

National at-Large Seats

DP	18
J. Cao	16
OBD	16
Talley	13
Transit	11	18.42
AGA	10	11.5	16.32
WB	9	10.08	10.98	14.13
MB	9	10.48	10.83	10.90	11.07	12.07
Koopa	10	10.08	10.08	10.14	10.62	10.62	10.65	11.86
Updyke	5	7.29	7.29	7.29	7.44	7.44	7.45	9.32
Kuumo	1	2.15	2.50	2.83	3.10	3.10	3.12
HCP	1	1	1	1	1

[P. Clodius Pulcher did nothing wrong]

Love Trebuchet MS.

[Sestak]

With three and a half hours remaining, the race for the final Senate seat is still somewhat close, though the right slate has built a reasonably consistent advantage; at present, all of their candidates quota ahead of Laborites MB and Harvey Updyke and pacifist Koopa D. Quick, with Updyke currently the one failing to be elected.

as of 8:30 PM Sunday

	Total	Won	Leads
Labor	7	6	1
Federalist	6	6	0
Liberal	2	1	1
Peace	1	0	1
Dem. Alliance	2	1	1

Regional Seats

Fremont			Lincoln			South
SevenEleven	20		Pericles	50		Spark	28
Lumine	9		Jimmy	19		Razze	10

Subregional Seats

Mtn. West			Northeast‎‎‎‎‎‎			Upr. South
Scott	15		Ishan	25		NC Yankee	17
Ut. Neolib	6		Wulfric	10		write-ins	1
Pacific			Grt. Lakes			Deep South
FalterinArc	8		Jimmy	22		DTC	14
			OneJ	14		TimTurner	4

National at-Large Seats

DP	18
J. Cao	18
OBD	16
Talley	13
AGA	13
Transit	11	19.06
WB	9	9.93	14.77
MB	11	12.03	12.43	12.60	13.60
Koopa	11	11.28	11.28	11.67	11.67	11.98	12.91
Updyke	5	6.31	6.31	6.43	6.43	6.55	8.33
Kuumo	1	2.12	2.44	2.60	2.60	2.76
HCP	1	1	1	1

[Sestak]

Quoting 9PM update as well.

Working on 9:30 one ahead of time now. As you might guess, will be the first of many eventful ones.

as of 9:00 PM Sunday

	Total	Won	Leads
Labor	7	6	1
Federalist	6	6	0
Liberal	2	1	1
Peace	1	0	1
Dem. Alliance	2	1	1

Regional Seats

Fremont			Lincoln			South
SevenEleven	20		Pericles	51		Spark	28
Lumine	9		Jimmy	19		Razze	10

Subregional Seats

Mtn. West			Northeast‎‎‎‎‎‎			Upr. South
Scott	15		Ishan	25		NC Yankee	17
Ut. Neolib	6		Wulfric	10		write-ins	1
Pacific			Grt. Lakes			Deep South
FalterinArc	8		Jimmy	22		DTC	14
			OneJ	15		TimTurner	4

National at-Large Seats

DP	18
J. Cao	18
OBD	16
Talley	14
Transit	12	17.78
AGA	13	14.33
MB	11	11.72	12.15	13.77
WB	9	9.69	12.77	12.78
Koopa	11	11	11.01	11.22
Updyke	6	6.88	6.88	7.88
Kuumo	1	1.60	1.84
HCP	1	1	1

[Sestak]

9:30 Update.

Weatherboy is elected; the DA now has elected both of their at-large candidates. As Wulfric was already projected to lose in the Northeast, this means they will be on two seats in the incoming Senate.

as of 9:30 PM Sunday

	Total	Won	Leads
Labor	7	6	1
Federalist	6	6	0
Liberal	2	1	1
Peace	1	0	1
Dem. Alliance	2	2	0

Regional Seats

Fremont			Lincoln			South
SevenEleven	20		Pericles	51		Spark	29
Lumine	9		Jimmy	20		Razze	10

Subregional Seats

Mtn. West			Northeast‎‎‎‎‎‎			Upr. South
Scott	15		Ishan	25		NC Yankee	18
Ut. Neolib	6		Wulfric	10		write-ins	1
Pacific			Grt. Lakes			Deep South
FalterinArc	8		Jimmy	23		DTC	14
			OneJ	15		TimTurner	4

National at-Large Seats

J. Cao	19
DP	18
OBD	16
Talley	15
WB	15
Transit	13	17.94
AGA	13	14.26	16.84
MB	11	11.46	11.62	11.82	13.35
Koopa	11	11.21	11.21	11.26	11.55
Updyke	6	6.44	6.44	6.44	7.44
Kuumo	2	2.52	2.69	2.93
HCP	1	1	1	1

[Sestak]

10PM Update. Came pretty fast due to a rather uneventful half hour.

as of 10:00 PM Sunday

	Total	Won	Leads
Labor	7	6	1
Federalist	6	6	0
Liberal	2	1	1
Peace	1	0	1
Dem. Alliance	2	2	0

Regional Seats

Fremont			Lincoln			South
SevenEleven	22		Pericles	54		Spark	30
Lumine	9		Jimmy	20		Razze	10

Subregional Seats

Mtn. West			Northeast‎‎‎‎‎‎			Upr. South
Scott	15		Ishan	25		NC Yankee	18
Ut. Neolib	6		Wulfric	10		write-ins	1
Pacific			Grt. Lakes			Deep South
FalterinArc	10		Jimmy	24		DTC	15
			OneJ	17		TimTurner	4

National at-Large Seats

J. Cao	20
DP	18
OBD	16
Talley	15
WB	15
Transit	13	18.58
AGA	13	14.5	17.60
MB	11	11.5	11.74	12.02	15.64
Koopa	11	11.25	11.25	11.34	12.66	13.13
Updyke	6	6.44	6.44	6.44	7.44	7.55
Kuumo	2	4.56	4.76	5.09
HCP	1	1	1	1

[Sestak]

A commentary: overall turnout, after being abysmal in the first two days, seems to have recovered pretty well? Nothing close to February, but rather in line for an election before that. More of the turnout recovery seems to have come from the right, who have had a rather very good day, but the left has of course improved some as well (likely with a double-digit vote dump coming).

In all the close races I've run, the momentum on Sunday morning and early afternoon is generally what gives you the best 'feel' of who or which side is going to win. We'll see if that holds true here; at least in the Senate I have a strong suspicion that it will and that we will see our 8-2-8 bloc split.

[Sestak]

10:30 Update. Quota bumps one, but again not much moving. Feel reasonably confident that we end with LabPax on 4 with Fed 2, DA 2, Lib 1 on the at-large.

as of 10:30 PM Sunday

	Total	Won	Leads
Labor	7	6	1
Federalist	6	6	0
Liberal	2	1	1
Peace	1	0	1
Dem. Alliance	2	2	0

Regional Seats

Fremont			Lincoln			South
SevenEleven	22		Pericles	55		Spark	30
Lumine	9		Jimmy	20		Razze	11

Subregional Seats

Mtn. West			Northeast‎‎‎‎‎‎			Upr. South
Scott	15		Ishan	26		NC Yankee	19
Ut. Neolib	6		Wulfric	10		write-ins	1
Pacific			Grt. Lakes			Deep South
FalterinArc	10		Jimmy	24		DTC	15
			OneJ	17		TimTurner	4

National at-Large Seats

J. Cao	21
DP	18
OBD	17
WB	16
Transit	16
AGA	13	18.46
Talley	15	15.47	15.64	17.78
MB	12	12.71	12.91	15.43	16.14
Koopa	11	11.24	11.33	11.45	11.77	11.87
Updyke	6	6.29	6.29	7.29	8.00	8.04
Kuumo	2	4.47	4.77
HCP	1	1	1

[Sestak]

11PM Update.

as of 11:00 PM Sunday

	Total	Won	Leads
Labor	7	6	1
Federalist	6	6	0
Liberal	2	1	1
Peace	1	0	1
Dem. Alliance	2	2	0

Regional Seats

Fremont			Lincoln			South
SevenEleven	22		Pericles	56		Spark	31
Lumine	10		Jimmy	20		Razze	11

Subregional Seats

Mtn. West			Northeast‎‎‎‎‎‎			Upr. South
Scott	15		Ishan	26		NC Yankee	20
Ut. Neolib	7		Wulfric	10		write-ins	1
Pacific			Grt. Lakes			Deep South
FalterinArc	10		Jimmy	24		DTC	15
			OneJ	18		TimTurner	4

National at-Large Seats

J. Cao	21
DP	18
OBD	17
WB	17
Transit	16
Talley	16
AGA	15	21.46
MB	13	13.77	14.16	17.89
Koopa	12	12.36	12.99	14.12	15.37
Updyke	6	6.47	6.47	7.53	8.02
Kuumo	4	4.59	5.16
HCP	1	1	1.01

[Sestak]

Half-hour remaining update.

as of 11:30 PM Sunday

	Total	Won	Leads
Labor	7	6	1
Federalist	6	6	0
Liberal	2	1	1
Peace	1	0	1
Dem. Alliance	2	2	0

Regional Seats

Fremont			Lincoln			South
SevenEleven	22		Pericles	57		Spark	32
Lumine	10		Jimmy	20		Razze	11

Subregional Seats

Mtn. West			Northeast‎‎‎‎‎‎			Upr. South
Scott	15		Ishan	27		NC Yankee	20
Ut. Neolib	7		Wulfric	10		write-ins	1
Pacific			Grt. Lakes			Deep South
FalterinArc	10		Jimmy	24		DTC	16
			OneJ	18		TimTurner	4

National at-Large Seats

J. Cao	22
DP	18
OBD	18
WB	17
Transit	17
Talley	17
AGA	15	19.81
MB	15	15.79	15.99	20.56
Koopa	12	12.23	12.53	12.64	15.83
Updyke	6	6.39	6.39	7.38	8.51
Kuumo	5	5.51	5.82
HCP	1	1	1

[Sestak]

And we have final results, everyone!


After a weekend of ugly calculations, the party machines seem to have worked out getting nearly everyone to quota on the round 1 (helped by the quota being on the lower tier - one more vote would have bumped it and caused a massive headache with a bunch of rounds, most likely.

Senate falls into split control. Liberals hold the balance of power with their two seats, as Lab-Pax and Fed-DA end with 8 seats each.

[Sestak]

I have been informed that there is currently debate ongoing as to the validity of several votes. While the details of the count my change, we can say that the overall list of members elected does not and is final.

At present, only smoltchanov is being counted as invalid. This will change once I am informed by the election administrator as to whose votes are officially being considered invalid.