2018: PA Gov Predictions + Thoughts

[Landslide Lyndon]

Just found on Facebook from June 5th that Jeff Bartos, Scott Wagner's running mate, accused Larry Krasner of winning his District Attorney race using funds from George Soros.

I'm a Krasner Bro but that's not a conspiracy theory at all.

Anyway, I'm more interested in the Dem. primary for LG - Go Fetterman!

I theoretically love Fetterman, but I hear the reason Bernie never endorsed him in 2016 is that Fetterman couldn't pass vetting. Watch him go down as another perpetrator of sexual assault/harrasement.

But the conspiracy nut who challenged DWS passed Bernie's vetting? If that's the case then I shudder to think what would happen if he had to choose a VP.

[MAINEiac4434]

Just found on Facebook from June 5th that Jeff Bartos, Scott Wagner's running mate, accused Larry Krasner of winning his District Attorney race using funds from George Soros.

I'm a Krasner Bro but that's not a conspiracy theory at all.

Anyway, I'm more interested in the Dem. primary for LG - Go Fetterman!

I theoretically love Fetterman, but I hear the reason Bernie never endorsed him in 2016 is that Fetterman couldn't pass vetting. Watch him go down as another perpetrator of sexual assault/harrasement.

But the conspiracy nut who challenged DWS passed Bernie's vetting? If that's the case then I shudder to think what would happen if he had to choose a VP.

Hopefully he chooses Warren in 2020. (which is what Hillary should've done last year)

Too New England, too left-wing, too old. He needs a more moderate westerner.

[Cactus Jack]

Just found on Facebook from June 5th that Jeff Bartos, Scott Wagner's running mate, accused Larry Krasner of winning his District Attorney race using funds from George Soros.

I'm a Krasner Bro but that's not a conspiracy theory at all.

Anyway, I'm more interested in the Dem. primary for LG - Go Fetterman!

I theoretically love Fetterman, but I hear the reason Bernie never endorsed him in 2016 is that Fetterman couldn't pass vetting. Watch him go down as another perpetrator of sexual assault/harrasement.

But the conspiracy nut who challenged DWS passed Bernie's vetting? If that's the case then I shudder to think what would happen if he had to choose a VP.

Hopefully he chooses Warren in 2020. (which is what Hillary should've done last year)

Too New England, too left-wing, too old. He needs a more moderate westerner.

Sanders/Ryan? Sanders/Klobuchar, perhaps?

[MAINEiac4434]

Just found on Facebook from June 5th that Jeff Bartos, Scott Wagner's running mate, accused Larry Krasner of winning his District Attorney race using funds from George Soros.

I'm a Krasner Bro but that's not a conspiracy theory at all.

Anyway, I'm more interested in the Dem. primary for LG - Go Fetterman!

I theoretically love Fetterman, but I hear the reason Bernie never endorsed him in 2016 is that Fetterman couldn't pass vetting. Watch him go down as another perpetrator of sexual assault/harrasement.

But the conspiracy nut who challenged DWS passed Bernie's vetting? If that's the case then I shudder to think what would happen if he had to choose a VP.

Hopefully he chooses Warren in 2020. (which is what Hillary should've done last year)

Too New England, too left-wing, too old. He needs a more moderate westerner.

Sanders/Ryan? Sanders/Klobuchar, perhaps?

I'm not the hugest Ryan fan. Sanders/Klobuchar I'd get behind. I'd really like Sanders/Harris, personally.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

When it comes to the Lieutenant Governor race, Mike Stack, the incumbent, is running for reelection so he's the obvious favorite. I favor both Aryanna Berringer and John Fetterman but my vote will probably go to the latter.

[Pennsylvania Deplorable]

Wolf will likely win because PA incumbents almost always win and the party out of the white house has an advantage during midterms. It should be fairly close though since Wolf hasn't really done anything to make him very popular or unpopular.

[Fuzzy Bear Loves Christian Missionaries]

I can't see Wolf losing.

I can't see Casey losing.

The Democrats need to address the issue of the state legislature a la Virginia, where I think they can make gains.  Of course if they're going all-in with the Sanders-Feminista Lollapalooza, real gains in PA won't happen at the grass roots level.  They have to win voters they've lost in order to move forward in the State Legislature, period.

[Orser67]

Daily Kos Elections released an analysis of the PA legislature for those interested.

In the House, the median seat backed Trump 53-43, about 9 points to the right of his statewide win. In the Senate, the median seat backed Trump 51-46, not nearly as bad as the House, but "Republicans intentionally drew the Senate map so some of their more vulnerable seats are only elected in midterm years."

[Virginiá]

It's amazing how Democrats have a ton of seats in very Trumpy turf still.

I'd say it's reasonably possible PA Republicans see a culling in all those Romney-Clinton seats, given how energetic Trump is making the opposition. Those Dem-held Trump seats probably won't flip until either 2020 or when a Democrat takes the White House, allowing a backlash to sweep them out. This is basically the same issue Democrats faced under Obama (at least in some other states, like Virginia).

[Esteemed Jimmy]

Wolf will likely win because PA incumbents almost always win and the party out of the white house has an advantage during midterms. It should be fairly close though since Wolf hasn't really done anything to make him very popular or unpopular.