CA-PPIC: Newsom/Villaraigosa leading the pack, 1/3 undecided

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Gavin Newsom (D): 23%
Antonio Villaraigosa (D): 18%
John Chiang (D): 9%
John Cox (R): 9%
Travis Allen (R): 6%
Delaine Eastin (D): 3%
Other/Undecided: 31%

Nov 10-19, 1704 likely voters

Full results

Article

[Holmes]

God, the Governor and Senate race next year will be DvD. Horrible for Republicans.

[Holmes]

God, the Governor and Senate race next year will be DvD. Horrible for Republicans.

I wonder how many of those 'Undecided' are hesitant Republicans though.  The two R candidates have 15% combines between them and Trump still managed 30% of the vote.  If they rally behind one of the two options they can sneak them past the jungle to be slaughtered in the general.

They could, but will They? The Republican candidates will be underfunded and the Democratic candidates will be sucking up all the oxygen in the race. And I don't think Republicans will be motivated to turn out in the first place.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

God, the Governor and Senate race next year will be DvD. Horrible for Republicans.

I wonder how many of those 'Undecided' are hesitant Republicans though.  The two R candidates have 15% combines between them and Trump still managed 30% of the vote.  If they rally behind one of the two options they can sneak them past the jungle to be slaughtered in the general.

GOP likely voters
Cox (R): 27%
Allen (R): 18%
Combined Democrats: 16%
Don't know or Undecided: 38%

Independent likely voters
Newsom (D): 24%
Villaraigosa (D): 15%
Chiang (D): 10%
Cox (R): 8%
Allen (R): 6%
Eastin (D): 2%
Don't know or Undecided: 37%

Among Independents, they fall 51% Dem, 36% undecided, and 14% GOP. They better hope the remaining 1/3 are all Republican.




Also, candidates percentage of 'Never heard of' + 'Don't know' answers
Newsom (D): 36%
Villaraigosa (D): 37%
Chiang (D): 59%
Eastin (D): 73%
Allen (R): 82%
Cox (R): 82%

[The Other Castro]

Not a great lead for Newsom.

[Holmes]

Not a great lead for Newsom.

Harris had some pretty lackluster poll numbers in 2015 too. Things will change when the campaigning begins.

[henster]

If its Newsom vs. Villaraigosa, Newsom wins 54-46 big racial & geographic splits. Higher NorCal turnout benefits him.

[Pouring Rain and Blairing Music]

God, the Governor and Senate race next year will be DvD. Horrible for Republicans.

I wonder how many of those 'Undecided' are hesitant Republicans though.  The two R candidates have 15% combines between them and Trump still managed 30% of the vote.  If they rally behind one of the two options they can sneak them past the jungle to be slaughtered in the general.

They could, but will They? The Republican candidates will be underfunded and the Democratic candidates will be sucking up all the oxygen in the race. And I don't think Republicans will be motivated to turn out in the first place.

Get a good bit of red meat in the form of an anti-sanctuary city ballot measure and they'll turn out.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

God, the Governor and Senate race next year will be DvD. Horrible for Republicans.

I wonder how many of those 'Undecided' are hesitant Republicans though.  The two R candidates have 15% combines between them and Trump still managed 30% of the vote.  If they rally behind one of the two options they can sneak them past the jungle to be slaughtered in the general.

They could, but will They? The Republican candidates will be underfunded and the Democratic candidates will be sucking up all the oxygen in the race. And I don't think Republicans will be motivated to turn out in the first place.

Get a good bit of red meat in the form of an anti-sanctuary city ballot measure and they'll turn out.

A gas tax repeal measure would be a safer bet, I think. An anti-sanctuary city ballot measure could either further fracture the moderate/conservative wings of the CA GOP, be twisted into another Prop 187, or both.

Whereas in polls I've seen (Such as this one), Republicans are near-unanimous in their opposition to the gas tax

[Holmes]

God, the Governor and Senate race next year will be DvD. Horrible for Republicans.

I wonder how many of those 'Undecided' are hesitant Republicans though.  The two R candidates have 15% combines between them and Trump still managed 30% of the vote.  If they rally behind one of the two options they can sneak them past the jungle to be slaughtered in the general.

They could, but will They? The Republican candidates will be underfunded and the Democratic candidates will be sucking up all the oxygen in the race. And I don't think Republicans will be motivated to turn out in the first place.

Get a good bit of red meat in the form of an anti-sanctuary city ballot measure and they'll turn out.

That would be shooting themselves in the foot.

[Dr. Arch]

lol, Republicans in fourth place over 3 Democrats.

[Maxwell]

hopefully a non-terrible democrat surges, but I wouldn't hold my breath.

I mean seriously I couldn't conceive of two bigger doofuses coming to power in the state where Democrats should be feeling the most energy to put forward a big policy vision. Both of them are New Democrat f**ckheads who have screwed up everything they've ever done.

I can't imagine how ANYONE would go into a voting booth happy to vote for Newsom or Villarigosa.