Worse dummymander: VA HoD or Arkansas Congress?

[heatcharger]

While it looks like VA Republicans got too greedy and spread themselves way too thin, the answer here is still the dumbass Arkansas Democrats in 2011. At least when the VA GOP drew that map they were still largely competitive in a lot of these districts on the statewide level. Arkansas Dems had to have known they were on death's row by 2011, but I guess they had too much economic anxiety to draw a plurality black district and call it a day.

[Virginiá]

Arkansas without a doubt.

[Skill and Chance]

Arkansas without a doubt.

This.  In 2009-11, VA looked like it was going to stay Toss Up in federal elections and Lean R in state elections for a long time, but the AR Dems not seeing the writing on the wall by 2011 was just crazy.  Of course, many of them were quite ideologically conservative and soon decided to become Republicans, so it's not really clear that a majority of the legislature even wanted to draw a safe liberal seat in the first place.   

[MAINEiac4434]

Arkansas and it's not even close.

[Bidenworth2020]

While it looks like VA Republicans got too greedy and spread themselves way too thin, the answer here is still the dumbass Arkansas Democrats in 2011. At least when the VA GOP drew that map they were still largely competitive in a lot of these districts on the statewide level. Arkansas Dems had to have known they were on death's row by 2011, but I guess they had too much economic anxiety to draw a plurality black district and call it a day.

the worse part about it is that you could have even done it by county line easily. What in the hell were they thinking. I literally dont understand.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

It really was impossible by 2010 to even draw 1 decently compact Dem district in Arkansas with only 4 districts available.

[Tintrlvr]

It really was impossible by 2010 to even draw 1 decently compact Dem district in Arkansas with only 4 districts available.

Not true at all. It wouldn't be a super-safe district at the Presidential level, but even now at a local level a Clinton+2 district (Mississippi Valley, Pine Bluff, parts of Little Rock) would be super-safe for a Democratic incumbent. It wouldn't be the most compact district you could draw, but it wouldn't be outrageous.

[IceSpear]

It wasn't so much a dummymander as them not wanting to admit their own imminent extinction. And in 2011 that wasn't THAT irrational. Yeah, Blanche got Blanched, but AR Dems had just completely dominated in 2008 (Pryor ran unopposed!), and Beebe won re-election in a landslide even in 2010.

[krazen1211]

Arkansas Democrats wanted to keep the seats for whites only. The map has to be analyzed with that in mind.

[Oryxslayer]

Arkansas isn't all that bad. Despite united Dem control, they really only ever had he numbers in the state to draw one Obama 08 district. So yeah, I guess they could have chosen to protect Mike Ross but that is only one seat.

The worst dummymander in living memory I think is NY 2000 - Reps and Dems came to a mutual understanding over lines that protected a GOP overreach upstate and democratic gains on Long Island. Well, they stretched the Republican vote too thin, and in 2009 there were only 2(!) Republicans out of 29 seats.

I also nominate New Jersey's current House map. It was drawn to turn a safe 7D - 6R map into a 6-6 map in a democratic lock state. Currently, of those six Red seats, 1 is held by a dem, one is now a Tossup soon to be safe D once Van Drew enters, two are lean R tilting Tossup, and one is Likely R. Only one of the "safe" six GOP seats is safe. It is entirely possible that in 2018 NJ has 11 Democrats and 1 Republican as it's house delegation.

[Badger]

Arkansas and it's not even close.

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

Arkansas' map means they have 0/4 congressional seats instead of 1/4.  Virginia's map means they were more vulnerable to lose the HoD, a much bigger deal.

[KingSweden]

I mean gerrymanders lose potency over a decade due to population changes/political shifts, so everything is a bit of a dummymander eventually anyhow

[Greedo punched first]

It wasn't so much a dummymander as them not wanting to admit their own imminent extinction. And in 2011 that wasn't THAT irrational. Yeah, Blanche got Blanched, but AR Dems had just completely dominated in 2008 (Pryor ran unopposed!), and Beebe won re-election in a landslide even in 2010.

Pryor did not run unopposed. No Republican ran, but Green Rebekah Kennedy ran and got 20% of the vote.

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

It wasn't so much a dummymander as them not wanting to admit their own imminent extinction. And in 2011 that wasn't THAT irrational. Yeah, Blanche got Blanched, but AR Dems had just completely dominated in 2008 (Pryor ran unopposed!), and Beebe won re-election in a landslide even in 2010.

Pryor did not run unopposed. No Republican ran, but Green Rebekah Kennedy ran and got 20% of the vote.

That's basically the same as running unopposed, if you ask me.

[Nyvin]

The VA HoD gerrymander is a thriving success.  The dems just won the popular vote for it by several points and might still fall short of a majority.  That wouldn’t be possible without lines heavily favoring the GOP.   I know the Charlottesville area could easily have two dem seats but just has one vote sink instead.

[Nichlemn]

Has anyone actually looked at the VA HoD and shown how the GOP could have done significantly better?

Gerrymanders aren't magic, you can only do so much with them. If your state massively swings against you, it can become literally impossible to draw yourself a majority. Perhaps the VA HoD was about as good as Republicans could get in maximising their probability of preserving a majority.

[Oryxslayer]

The VA HoD gerrymander is a thriving success.  The dems just won the popular vote for it by several points and might still fall short of a majority.  That wouldn’t be possible without lines heavily favoring the GOP.   I know the Charlottesville area could easily have two dem seats but just has one vote sink instead.

After dems won the chamber, I went on atlas and wiggled up a VA HoD Map. Dems only end up gaining about 3 seats on a fair map.  Its really the margins that matter. I think the medium seat right now in the HoD is something like Clinton + 0.5, whereas it could easily be Clinton + 2/3.

[Nichlemn]

The VA HoD gerrymander is a thriving success.  The dems just won the popular vote for it by several points and might still fall short of a majority.  That wouldn’t be possible without lines heavily favoring the GOP.   I know the Charlottesville area could easily have two dem seats but just has one vote sink instead.

After dems won the chamber, I went on atlas and wiggled up a VA HoD Map. Dems only end up gaining about 3 seats on a fair map.  Its really the margins that matter. I think the medium seat right now in the HoD is something like Clinton + 0.5, whereas it could easily be Clinton + 2/3.

So I guess the situation with the Virginia HoD is not that Dems should be winning far more seats than they did, but they need a favourable environment to get close.

[Arkansas Yankee]

I was going to present a long dissertation on this great change.  But I I know you do not want that.  I will just revel in the change. For the first time I live in a Republican district.

Blacks only make up about 17% of the population and less of the voting population.  I do not see how you can create a District that elects a black.  The state Senate District I live in was established as a black majority district in 2001. The first few years it elected a black.  It is now represented by the son of the man who created the organization that pretty well has controlled the county since the early 50s. He keeps considering running for Governor.  Then he backs off. A black lady mayor of one of our smaller towns has announced she is going to run for the seat.

My county has two state House seats. One is represented by a black businessman. The other is represented by white lady, who was formerly a dentist.  Her husband is a doctor and preceded her in the seat.  The rep and her husband are backing Governor Hutchinson for reelection.

One further point is that the Republican Party has a very strong state organization built over 40 years.
There is no real state Democrat organization.  They are just really starting to build one.  It does not help when the Democrat Presidential candidate has to ignore the state.

If there is a wave in 18, I believe it will be a ripple by the time it reaches Arkansas.

[Oryxslayer]

I was going to present a long dissertation on this great change.  But I I know you do not want that.  I will just revel in the change. For the first time I live in a Republican district.

Blacks only make up about 17% of the population and less of the voting population.  I do not see how you can create a District that elects a black.  The state Senate District I live in was established as a black majority district in 2001. The first few years it elected a black.  It is now represented by the son of the man who created the organization that pretty well has controlled the county since the early 50s. He keeps considering running for Governor.  Then he backs off. A black lady mayor of one of our smaller towns has announced she is going to run for the seat.

My county has two state House seats. One is represented by a black businessman. The other is represented by white lady, who was formerly a dentist.  Her husband is a doctor and preceded her in the seat.  The rep and her husband are backing Governor Hutchinson for reelection.

One further point is that the Republican Party has a very strong state organization built over 40 years.
There is no real state Democrat organization.  They are just really starting to build one.  It does not help when the Democrat Presidential candidate has to ignore the state.

If there is a wave in 18, I believe it will be a ripple by the time it reaches Arkansas.

Yeah under a fair, or a logical map, the republican were always going to control the full Arkansas delegation. The dems went from full Clinton-era domination to a post-Obama wipeout. The demographics of the state meanwhile mean that every democratic president ignores the state and no money ends up flowing into the state organization beyond primary season. It s hard to see the Dems coming back.

However, in 2010, dems had full control over Arkansas redistricting, and they decided to divide the state. They, like the TN Reps, assumed that the Obama era partisan lines were temporary, and drew their districts under this assumption. They choose to divide the Obama vote up to balance it out with rural white, who the assumed were D leaning. Nope.

However after 2010, dems had one seat - Mike Ross. If they recognized that the Obama era pattern was the new normal they could have easily drawn one Safe-D district The question is, do you think one Democratic congressional vote is worth more or less then the VA HoD? I disagree with both, and say that the NJ congressional map has the potential to be worse then both of them, but thats not the question.

Here is said district, 55.8% Obama, 41% Black:

[Virginiá]

So I guess the situation with the Virginia HoD is not that Dems should be winning far more seats than they did, but they need a favourable environment to get close.

That's a relative statement, imo. Based on the pre-2017 election GOP majority, they needed a very favorable environment and generally big win to get close, due to all the incumbent Republican delegates. Post-2017, it should be relatively easy to defend the gains they made. They didn't make huge inroads in Trump territory, rather it was mostly in Obama/Clinton or Romney/Clinton districts, and in areas that are trending D in a significant way.

[Arkansas Yankee]

I was going to present a long dissertation on this great change.  But I I know you do not want that.  I will just revel in the change. For the first time I live in a Republican district.

Blacks only make up about 17% of the population and less of the voting population.  I do not see how you can create a District that elects a black.  The state Senate District I live in was established as a black majority district in 2001. The first few years it elected a black.  It is now represented by the son of the man who created the organization that pretty well has controlled the county since the early 50s. He keeps considering running for Governor.  Then he backs off. A black lady mayor of one of our smaller towns has announced she is going to run for the seat.

My county has two state House seats. One is represented by a black businessman. The other is represented by white lady, who was formerly a dentist.  Her husband is a doctor and preceded her in the seat.  The rep and her husband are backing Governor Hutchinson for reelection.

One further point is that the Republican Party has a very strong state organization built over 40 years.
There is no real state Democrat organization.  They are just really starting to build one.  It does not help when the Democrat Presidential candidate has to ignore the state.

If there is a wave in 18, I believe it will be a ripple by the time it reaches Arkansas.

Yeah under a fair, or a logical map, the republican were always going to control the full Arkansas delegation. The dems went from full Clinton-era domination to a post-Obama wipeout. The demographics of the state meanwhile mean that every democratic president ignores the state and no money ends up flowing into the state organization beyond primary season. It s hard to see the Dems coming back.

However, in 2010, dems had full control over Arkansas redistricting, and they decided to divide the state. They, like the TN Reps, assumed that the Obama era partisan lines were temporary, and drew their districts under this assumption. They choose to divide the Obama vote up to balance it out with rural white, who the assumed were D leaning. Nope.

However after 2010, dems had one seat - Mike Ross. If they recognized that the Obama era pattern was the new normal they could have easily drawn one Safe-D district The question is, do you think one Democratic congressional vote is worth more or less then the VA HoD? I disagree with both, and say that the NJ congressional map has the potential to be worse then both of them, but thats not the question.

Here is said district, 55.8% Obama, 41% Black:

There were a sufficient number of conservative leaning Democrats in legislature,including the doctor in my district, that the creation of such a district would never have been considered.  If it had been created, it would not elect a black.  Hillary ran statewide about 5% less than Obama in 2008 and 3% less than Obama in 2012.  But I guess your district would have stayed congressionally Democrat.

In 2010 we had two Democrats.  Vic Snyder represented the Little Rock district.  Snyder was running 17% behind Tim Griffin, our current Lt. Governor.  He saw the handwriting and announced in 2011 he would not run again.   Ross made the same announcement.  I guess he did not see a future in the Congress.  If he had run again, could Tom Cotton have beaten him.  Probably not.  Would Cotton be our Senator. Probably.

[Arkansas Yankee]

I was wrong Snyder announced his retirement in 2010 and Griffin was elected in 2010.