leading 2012 Democratic presidential candidates as of early 2009?

[Mr. Morden]

(Inspired by the poll I did for the GOP side.)

OK, for the purpose of this poll, assume the Republicans win the 2008 presidential election.  Whichever scenario for a GOP victory in '08 that you think is most likely, assume that that happens.  Now here's the question: In March 2009 (just two years from now), who do you think will be regarded as the early leading contenders for the 2012 Democratic nomination?  Pick two choices: the "famous frontrunner" and the "unknown frontrunner".

The "famous frontrunner" is whoever you think will be regarded as the early favorite among the potential candidates who are already well known nationally by March '09.  This will probably be whoever is leading in the really early 2012 polls taken in early 2009.  (In early 2005, this would have been Hillary Clinton for the Dems, and either Giuliani or McCain for the GOP.)  This doesn't have to be someone who's already well known as of 2007!  It could be someone you think will become famous within the next two years.  Maybe as the 2008 VP candidate or one of the unsuccessful '08 presidential candidates.  (For example, Richardson isn't that well known now, but he'll likely become famous if he does OK in the '08 primaries, so you could pick him.)

The "unknown frontrunner" is someone who you think will still be relatively unknown by March 2009, but will be regarded by political insiders as a leading candidate for the nomination (for whatever reason).  Throughout much of 2005 and into early 2006, George Allen and Mark Warner were arguably the "unknown frontrunners" for the GOP and Democratic nominations for '08 respectively.  They had very little national name recognition and didn't do well in national polls, but political insiders were predicting that they would be leading candidates for their nominations.  (Obviously, it didn't work out that way in this case.)

I know I should maybe have split this into two separate polls, but I prefer combining the discussion in one place.  Just click two boxes in the poll, one for the "famous frontrunner" and one for the "unknown frontrunner".  (Apologies if your favorite candidate is not included.  I obviously couldn't cover everybody.)

My picks:
famous frontrunner: Barack Obama (most likely '08 candidate to have a decent chance the next time if he doesn't make it this time, IMHO)
unknown frontrunner: I think it might be Mark Warner again.  Though Eliot Spitzer is a possibility, as NY governors tend to get noticed by the national media.

[DownWithTheLeft]

Sebelius, Spitzer, and Henry

No way they gamble with a senator or hardcore liberal after losing 3 elections in a row.  They will go with Bill Clinton-esque candidate

[Reaganfan]

Gov. Bill Ritter
Gov. Mark Warner

[SPC]

If Warner doesn't run for Gov. or Sen.:
Famous frontrunner: Eliot Spitzer
Unknown forntrunner: Brad Henry

If Warner runs for Gov. or Sen. successfully:
Famous frontrunner: Eliot Spitzer
Unknown frontrunner: Mark Warner

[ShadowRocket]

If he loses the nomination, Barack Obama will be the clear frontrunner for 2012, with Mark Warner being the unknown frontrunner.

[TomC]

Spitzer and whomever the VP nominee was in 2008, unless it's a blow out.

[Mr. Morden]

Sebelius, Spitzer, and Henry

No way they gamble with a senator or hardcore liberal after losing 3 elections in a row.  They will go with Bill Clinton-esque candidate

The 2008 election hasn't even been held yet.

But we're talking about a hypothetical in which the GOP wins the '08 election.  If the Dems win, then this whole issue is moot, as the incumbent president will be the Democratic nominee.  If the Democratic nomination is up for grabs in 2012, it'll be because they lost in '08, which means they would have lost three in a row, as DWTL says.

[Reignman]

Part of the problem with this poll is it doesn't tell us WHO the Dem nominee for '08 was. I therefore pick Schweitzer and Warner.

[Mr. Morden]

Part of the problem with this poll is it doesn't tell us WHO the Dem nominee for '08 was.

It's whoever you think is most likely.  Out of all the scenarios that involve a GOP victory in 2008, pick whichever one you think is most likely to occur.

[Kevin]

Favored Frontrunner- Governor Martin O'Malley(D-MD)*
Underdog Who Could Pull An Upset-Senator Jim Webb(D-VA)

*I think Matin O'Malley would be a credible frontrunner assuming he is not sitting in Federal prision by this time.     

[Joe Biden 2020]

My hope since thats all it is right now 5 years out, is Henry and Sebelius.  Add Claire McCaskill in there, too.

[pragmatic liberal]

I honestly don't get the obsession this board has with Brad Henry. I'm glad Oklahoma has a Democratic governor, but I just don't see why he would be especially favored by Democratic voters. Democratic primary voters are like Republican primary voters - they go for the most electable progressive candidate, not the most conservative.

Yes, the Democrats selected Jimmy Carter and Bill Clinton in '76 and '92. But neither ran a particularly conservative campaign and both came in response to a specific set of circumstances. Carter was able to run because the huge field caused the more progressive vote to splinter and because Watergate made voters receptive, for the first time in decades, to someone from outside Washington. Clinton was able to do well because three successive landslide losses made the Democrats receptive to someone new and also because he was incredibly charismatic, ran a relatively progressive campaign on economic issues especially, and because most of the party heavy-weights sat out.

Also, there has been an increasingly celebrity-nature to national politics. Those that get money and attention are those most favored by the national media. Alternately, if one is unknown, the strategy (like Howard Dean) is to fill a vacuum in the race and earn attention through the blogosphere. I can't see Brad Henry doing either one.

[pragmatic liberal]

Also, I'll answer the question in the post.

My guess is that if Democrats lose in '08, the leading candidates will be...

1) Barack Obama, assuming he wasn't the losing nominee in '08. Actually, Obama is one of the few people who could plausibly be a repeat nominee, assuming he runs a plausible campaign; but he may have to wait till 2016 in that case.

2) Eliot Spitzer: New York governors typically get a lot of presidential speculation. That's become less so in recent years for the Republicans, since the Republican party has become more Southern and more conservative. But as a Democrat, Spitzer will be a hot prospect. And would clearly relish it if given the chance.

3) Deval Patrick - Massachusetts governor

4) Martin O'Malley - Maryland governor

5) Mark Warner (assuming that whatever kept him out of this year's race doesn't keep him out of 2012's)

[Yates]

O'Malley and Ritter will likely be two of the major candidates.  I, personally, believe that Ritter will win the nomination in such a scenario.

[Kevin]

O'Malley and Ritter will likely be two of the major candidates.  I, personally, believe that Ritter will win the nomination in such a scenario.

Ritter is promising for the Democrats, However O'Malley has serious ethical problems that have yet to be exposed. 

[Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon]

Maybe there is someone who is currently an obscure state legislator you can run by then.

[AndrewTX]

The one democrat that I feared the most for 2008 was Evan Bayh. I thought if he won the primaries, he would be one tough candidate to beat. I wish he would have stayed in though.