What will the State Trifecta map look like after 2018?

[PoliticalShelter]

I'm wondering how you think the current State Trifecta map will look like after 2018.

Here is the current one at this point:

Green meaning it is split.

[YE]

Nevada, New Mexico, Minnesota, New York, Maine, and perhaps Illinois look the most likely to become a Dem trifecta. Florida, Arizona, Kansas, Michigan, Wisconsin, Connecticut, and Rhode Island could become divided governments. 

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

[PoliticalShelter]

Here's my mine.

I'm unsure on whether Iowa and Georgia could end up being split as well.

[The Undefeatable Debbie Stabenow]

If I had to make a prediction:

But things that could easily change from this:

• Sisolak (D) wins the NV governorship, securing Democrats a trifecta there
• Sununu (R) is re-elected as NH governor, maintaining the Republican trifecta there
• Kobach (R) wins the KS gubernatorial race, maintaining the Republican trifecta there
• Republicans keep control of the CO State Senate, keeping Democrats from a trifecta there
• Hogan (R) is re-elected as MD governor, keeping Democrats from a trifecta there
• Republicans keep control of the AZ State Senate, maintaining the Republican trifecta there
• Reynolds (R) loses re-election for the IA governorship, keeping Republicans from a trifecta there
• Schuette (R) wins the MI governorship, maintaining the Republican trifecta there
• Putnam (R) wins the FL governorship, maintaining the Republican trifecta there
• Scott (R) loses re-election for the VT governorship, giving the Democrats a trifecta there
• Walker (R) wins re-election as WI governor, maintaining a Republican trifecta there

Obviously a lot of uncertainty.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Dems win IL, NV, OH, FL, KS, MD, NH, Iowa, MI, WI, AZ Gubernatorial elections

[PragmaticPopulist]

Here's my tentative predictions. The ones I'm most unsure about are:

• MD: Hogan still appears to be slightly favored for reelection, but is on shaky ground in a very inelastic state
• CT: Malloy will be a drag on the Dem nominee here, and both chambers have a pretty narrow Dem majority.
• NH: My prediction right now is that 2018 in NH will be like in 2010, where Democrats fairly easily held the governorship, but lost both chambers of the legislature, except the other way around. This could change if Democrats show more interest in challenging Sununu
• WI, MI: I now think Dems have a chance at getting trifectas, but it looks unlikely
• AZ: a real wildcard. Ducey on paper looks safe, but the legislature doesn't look entirely safe for Rs, so putting at split control to be safe.
• KS: It's unclear at the moment if Democrats have a shot at all at winning the governorship, since Greg Orman running a independent campaign will complicate things.

[Rookie Yinzer]

I am actively involved in the Georgia Gubernatorial race so I am not going to predict a loss for us.

[Greedo punched first]

Democratic trifecta after 2018
Republican trifecta after 2018
No trifecta
Democratic trifecta after 2019

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Nevada, New Mexico, Minnesota, New York, Maine, and perhaps Illinois look the most likely to become a Dem trifecta. Florida, Arizona, Kansas, Michigan, Wisconsin, Connecticut, and Rhode Island could become divided governments. 

The only way Minnesota can become a Den trifecta before 2020 is if a Republican-held State Senate district becomes vacant and a Democrat wins the special election.

[Orser67]

LA/MS/NJ/VA: no elections
AL: Reps win the semi-competitive guv election
AK: Reps keeps Senate, independent keeps guv.
AZ: Ducey wins re-election but Dems flip at least one legislative chamber
AR: Nope (i.e. there's nothing competitive here)
CA: Nope
CO: Dems flips the Senate
CT: Dems keep control of the state
DE: Dems keep control of the state
FL: Dems win a close guv. race and maybe win the senate, but not the house
GA: Reps. win competitive guv. race and keep control of state legislature
HI: nope
ID: nope
IL: Dems win guv race
IN: nope
IA: Republicans win competitive guv. race, keep control of legislature
KS: Republicans win competitive guv.race
ME: Dems win competitive guv. race and take state senate
MD: Dems win competitive guv. race
MA: Dems win competitive guv. race
MI: Dems win guv. race but Republicans keep control of legislature (though house could flip)
MN: Dems win guv. race and maybe take House; Senate not up for election
MO: nope
MT: Republicans keep control of legislature
NE: Republican defeats independent in guv. race
NV: Dems win competitive guv. race and keep control of legislature
NH: Dems win competitive guv. race and flip legislature
NJ: Dems pick up guv. and keep control of legislature
NY: Dems pick up a few seats in state senate to solidify control
NC: Republicans keep control of legislature
ND: nope
OH: Dems win competitive guv. race, Republicans keep control of legislature
OR: Dems keep control; outside chance of competitive guv. race
PA: Dems win guv. race and maybe flip house
RI: Dems keep control; outside chance of competitive guv. race
SC: Reps keep control; outside chance of competitive guv. race
SD: Reps keep control; outside chance of competitive guv. race
TN: Reps keep control; outside chance of competitive guv. race
TX: Reps keep control; outside chance of competitive guv. race
UT: Nope
VT: Rep wins guv. election, Dems keep control of legislature
WA: Dems keep control of legislature
WV: Nope
WI: Dems win guv. race and maybe pick up state senate
WY: nope

As a general note, I'm expecting a Democratic wave in 2018 similar to 2010 and 2014.

[Strudelcutie4427]

[Strudelcutie4427]

Bullock will still be governor in 2019, so Montana can't be a R trifecta. Even after 2020, it probably won't be.

Can’t believe i missed that one. Lol. Corrected. Thank you!!

[Sestak]

By the way, I've been wondering, is there any chance the Iowa Senate flips? It's currently 29-20 GOP with one Independent.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

By the way, I've been wondering, is there any chance the Iowa Senate flips? It's currently 29-20 GOP with one Independent.

Both Iowa chambers are competitive.

[Figueira]

I don't think Connecticut is still going to be a D trifecta in 2019. Dems should make a number of gains though.

[Person Man]

bump