What's the probability that the Dem. nominee will be one of the current top 5?

[Mr. Morden]

What's the probability that the 2020 Dem. presidential nominee will be one of these five people?:

Biden, Sanders, Harris, Warren, Buttigieg

I'll say 80%.  Relatedly, even in other years with big fields, there are no recent examples of someone polling outside the top 5 at this point going on to win the nomination.  There are a couple of examples of candidates outside the top 5 finishing 2nd for the nomination.  Believe if or not, Ted Cruz was in something like 8th place at this point four years ago, and Santorum was about 7th or 8th at this point in 2011.  But *winning* the nomination despite not being in the top 5 in polling as of July of the year before the election?  That hasn't happened any time recently.

[GP270watch]

100%

[7,052,770]

Over 90%.

I mean, the only other plausible nominees are Booker and ... maybe Beto if he can recapture the 2018 magic?

[Senator Spark]

What's the probability that the 2020 Dem. presidential nominee will be one of these five people?:

Biden, Sanders, Harris, Warren, Buttigieg

I'll say 80%.  Relatedly, even in other years with big fields, there are no recent examples of someone polling outside the top 5 at this point going on to win the nomination.  There are a couple of examples of candidates outside the top 5 finishing 2nd for the nomination.  Believe if or not, Ted Cruz was in something like 8th place at this point four years ago, and Santorum was about 7th or 8th at this point in 2011.  But *winning* the nomination despite not being in the top 5 in polling as of July of the year before the election?  That hasn't happened any time recently.

Very likely.. near 90%.

[Rookie Yinzer]

99%

There are too many people. Warren, Harris & Pete are penetrating as alternatives to the same old white men but that's all the general public can stand to get to know. There's not too much more room to get to know anyone else in this field.

[Del Tachi]

>99%

The most likely nominee outside of the Top 5 is Klobuchar, followed by Booker

[eric82oslo]

The eventual nominee will be among the 8 or 9 candidates (10-11 at most I guess) who will make the fall debates. So that probably includes Yang at least, since he's been at 2% in almost half the polls for the past 3 weeks and already cleared the 130,000 threshold. It will also include Castro, even though he still need quite a bit more donors. However, I read that he increased his donor count with almost 20,000 in the first couple of days after the debate, quite impressive to say the least.

[Ogre Mage]

I would say 85%.  I agree that outside of those five, Sens. Booker and Klobuchar are the two most likely to take it.

[Alben Barkley]

0%.

Jimmy Carter is going to announce tomorrow and win both the primary and general elections with 100% of the vote.

[brucejoel99]

0%.

Jimmy Carter is going to announce tomorrow and win both the primary and general elections with 100% of the vote.

This is very obviously the correct and only answer.

[Some of My Best Friends Are Gay]

>95%.

[Hoosier_Nick]

Yeah, I'd say around 90%. There are a few (Castro, Booker, Beto, Klobuchar) who are definitely at least a 1/100.

[Progressive Pessimist]

99%

[elcorazon]

82.5% - it's really early. And a few of the mid-level candidates could catch fire, especially if one or two of the top 5 flames out. Booker, Castro and Klobuchar seem like the best bets of non-top 5'ers.

[538Electoral]

Well near 100%.

[Orser67]

Relatedly, even in other years with big fields, there are no recent examples of someone polling outside the top 5 at this point going on to win the nomination.

This is true about polling, but many gave up on McCain's chances of winning the nomination around mid-2007. Kerry (and Edwards) also had some pretty bad polling numbers in late 2003. Going back even further, Clinton was almost a polling non-entity in mid-1991.

So I'll go with about 80%. I think Booker legitimately has a chance at winning the nomination, and someone could still break out from the field.

[Mr. Morden]

Relatedly, even in other years with big fields, there are no recent examples of someone polling outside the top 5 at this point going on to win the nomination.

This is true about polling, but many gave up on McCain's chances of winning the nomination around mid-2007. Kerry (and Edwards) also had some pretty bad polling numbers in late 2003. Going back even further, Clinton was almost a polling non-entity in mid-1991.

I believe even at McCain's lowest point, he was still doing no worse than 5th place in betting markets.  Sure, that was at like 5% or something, but that was good enough for 5th place.  Same with Kerry when he had tanked, IIRC.  So it's true regardless of whether you're talking about polling or betting markets.

Not sure about Clinton in '91, but the race developed so late that year, that the polls were dominated by candidates who ended up not running in the end, if memory serves.

[AN63093]

Close to 100.  Whether it's actually 90, or 99, or 92 or whatever.. first off, is unknowable and second, is kinda irrelevant since you're splitting hairs at that point.  And of those 5, it's really only Biden or one of Harris/Warren... and it's been obvious that's the case for months now.  I don't see a path for Buttigieg or Sanders, although they can potentially win some states.


Of the non-top 5, only Booker and Klobuchar have any chance whatsoever.  It's pretty small though, around 1% maybe.

[NYSforKennedy2024]

98%.