Bush's approval rating if...

[Moooooo]

We catch/kill OBL?

We catch/kill Zarqawi?

We withdrawl from Iraq within 6 months?

A major terroist attack occurs on U.S. soil within the next couple months?

Gas drops below 2.00 within the next couple months?

Congress passes a SS bill, which includes private accounts?

Im just trying to get a feel for how "iffy" presidential approval ratings are.

[TheresNoMoney]

We catch/kill OBL?

We catch/kill Zarqawi?

Slight uptick for both.

We withdrawl from Iraq within 6 months?

Probably a slight uptick but hard to say.

A major terroist attack occurs on U.S. soil within the next couple months?

Further downward.

Gas drops below 2.00 within the next couple months?

Small uptick.

Congress passes a SS bill, which includes private accounts?

Further down. The dismantling of Social Security is a very unpopular idea.

[© tweed]

We catch/kill OBL?

We catch/kill Zarqawi?

We withdrawl from Iraq within 6 months?

A major terroist attack occurs on U.S. soil within the next couple months?

Gas drops below 2.00 within the next couple months?

Congress passes a SS bill, which includes private accounts?

Im just trying to get a feel for how "iffy" presidential approval ratings are.

55%
50%
30%, but I would have said it would have gone up 12 months ago
50%
45%

[MODU]

We catch/kill OBL? - Easily up 10% in the short term, but may only realize a 2-3% long term effect.  (Personally, I think we already have him or he's already dead and burried in a mountain.)

We catch/kill Zarqawi? - Up 5% and probably will maintain there since he is the backbone of the Iraqi insurgents.

We withdrawl from Iraq within 6 months? - Not going to happen.

A major terroist attack occurs on U.S. soil within the next couple months? - Strangely enough, it will go back up.  Even though half of the public isn't happy with him, we have a history of rallying around the leaders of the country, even when they are not liked.  I say up 20-30%.

Gas drops below 2.00 within the next couple months? - Probably go up, being just below his election day rating.

Congress passes a SS bill, which includes private accounts? - Up 5-10%, since it will be shown that he can get some of the things he campaigned on passed by Congress.

Personally, the only near-term goal for the President which will have any major (and lasting) impact on his approval rating will be the Iraqi Constitution.  It will show that we are one step closer to meeting Bush's criteria for exiting Iraq, and that will be received kindly by some of the anti-war crowd.

[Smash255]

 We catch/kill OBL?  up 10% in the short term, probably slide back down though after a few months

We catch/kill Zarqawi? up 5-7% in the short term, beyond month or so will depend on what happens in Iraq

We withdrawl from Iraq within 6 months?  maybe slighlt treck downward, but won't move much.  Iraq will probably get worse, but his downward approval would be offset by no more Americans getting killed (possibly concentrating more on Al Qaeda) & many people feel that Iraq will be a disaster no matter what we do

A major terroist attack occurs on U.S. soil within the next couple months?  down at least 5-10% if it comes from Al Qaeda

Gas drops below 2.00 within the next couple months?
slight tick upward 3% or so, (due to prices typically being cheaper in the fall anyway, could go up 5-7% if the lower prices stay to the winter

Congress passes a SS bill, which includes private accounts? down 10%, VERY unpopular idea.  His approval on Social Security is something like 30%/ 65% disapprove

[Alcon]

Here are my guesses:

We catch/kill OBL?

Will go up around 10 points and, if it goes back down, will not go below about 42%.

We catch/kill Zarqawi?

Same with OBL, but a much smaller effect.  Not many people know who he is, sadly.

We withdrawl from Iraq within 6 months?

After the harm this causes is realised, downtick, probably going below 40%.

A major terroist attack occurs on U.S. soil within the next couple months?

It would shoot up and then crater.

Gas drops below 2.00 within the next couple months?

Uptick of 2-3%.

Congress passes a SS bill, which includes private accounts?

Moderate downtick.

[Wakie]

We catch/kill OBL?

We catch/kill Zarqawi?

Definite boost to his numbers.  More so for OBL than Zarq.

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Depends on circumstances.  If we are viewed as tucking our tails and running then big blow downward.  If Iraq is viewed as secure then this would be a slight upward push.

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Immediate effect would probably be (and this is counter-intuitive) that his numbers would go up.

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Big spike for his numbers.

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Big blow to his numbers.

[A18]

We catch/kill OBL?

Up 5-10 points

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Up a couple points

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If Iraq is able to handle its own security, up 10 points

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Not sure

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Maybe up a little.

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Up a few. It doesn't matter though. The GOP has already cemented itself as the Social Security privatization party and when it happens (57% of young people support it), it will be part of the Bush and GOP legacy.

[Smash255]

We catch/kill OBL?

Up 5-10 points

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Up a couple points

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If Iraq is able to handle its own security, up 10 points

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Not sure

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Maybe up a little.

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Up a few. It doesn't matter though. The GOP has already cemented itself as the Social Security privatization party and when it happens (57% of young people support it), it will be part of the Bush and GOP legacy.

57% people of young people support it when half of the proposal is left out of the question...

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Catch / kill OBL: 50
Catch / kill Zarqai: 45
Withdraw from Iraq: 40
Major terrorist attack: 40
Gas drops below 2.00: 46
SS bill passes: 40

I'm assuming current is about 42-43.

[A18]

No, 57% of young people support it when the actual proposal is given as the question.

[Moooooo]

No, 57% of young people support it when the actual proposal is given as the question.

Leme' take a look at dat' dere' poll.