Phil Murphy is guaranteed to win easily as Jim McGreevey did in 2001 and Jim Florio in 1989. 8 years of NJGOP rule usually gives NJ Democrats a big advantage.
Murphy will win by 30 points, but Murphy and NJ Democrats should not be
complacent. Some Police officers and the Jersey Shore could come out in large numbers for Guadagno despite the fact that they are disillusioned with her and the NJGOP. They don't want high taxes to be raised by Murphy and the Democrats.
However, by 2019 we should find out if NJ will have a good economy, or if taxes will be raised so high that the NJ exodus continues and damages the state with the tax base and job growth.
http://www.nj.com/politics/index.ssf/2017/09/upcoming_gubernatorial_election_is_going_to_be_a_b.html