SaintStan86
Jr. Member
Posts: 289
Political Matrix
E: 4.13, S: -1.22
|
 |
« Reply #3 on: March 05, 2022, 12:36:50 PM » |
|
If New York City were to separate from NYS, there would have to be three separate states constructed, not only because of the obvious separation of Nassau and Suffolk counties (and perhaps the latter splitting into the mythical Montauk County) but also given that two Senate seats would be all but set to vote Democratic, you would have to create two other separate states whose populaces would be capable of electing Republicans.
Of course, New York would be the most Democratic state in the union outside Washington, D.C. with Richmond County (Staten Island) being a reliable battleground in presidential elections. While it would undoubtedly force Republicans to adopt a more moderate tone, unless there is a massive shift of urban Hispanic and Black votes to the GOP or the "silk stocking" vote in east side Manhattan shifts more conservative, I don't see a situation near term for Republicans to win. New York would have 14 EVs with Nicole Malliotakis being the only Republican in the state's delegation.
Nassau and Suffolk would essentially become the state of Long Island (think "Oyster Bay, Long Island" as Billy Joel sung it best in "The Ballad of Billy the Kid") with the USPS code LI, and that state would become a reliable swing state with Nassau being more Democratic and Suffolk being more Republican; the breakaway Montauk County would be just as competitive given certain enclaves like Sag Harbor and the Hamptons could be more Democratic than the rest of Montauk's footprint. There would be 6 EVs four congressional districts, with one majority-minority district in southwest Nassau that would strongly favor the Democrats, one district exclusive to Suffolk covering the Hamptons and the entire prototypical Montauk County, and two straddling across both counties - a "North Shore" district similar to the one Tom Suozzi currently holds and a "South Shore" one similar to the one Andrew Garbarino represents.
The breakaway Upstate NY region would become known as "Hudson", after the Hudson River, with "HU" as a USPS code. This would likely become a swing battleground that leans Democratic due to Westchester, Albany, Onondaga, Monroe and Erie counties, with most of the rest of the state favoring the GOP. There would be 12 EVs and a total of 10 congressional districts, even divided between Democratic seats in Westchester County, the Capital District, Rochester, between Syracuse and Ithaca and from Buffalo to the Southtowns and the Niagara Frontier (some of these districts may go Republican under certain circumstances), and Republican-favored seats in Niagara Falls and the northern Buffalo suburbs, the Southern Tier, and Watertown and the North Country, with two battleground seats in the New York City suburbs on opposite sides of the Tappan Zee (Orange and Rockland to the west, Dutchess County and fringes of the Albany and Westchester suburbs to the east).
In this last presidential election, Biden probably would have won BOTH Long Island and Hudson, and Trump probably would have aggressively questioned election officials in both states, and more than likely there would have been endless press conferences and protests outside of the Al D'Amato Federal Courthouse in Islip, which very well could also be the capital of the state of Long Island (the courthouse's namesake, who backed Trump in 2016, would also have hounded Trump to concede and gotten trashed by Trump in response). Better yet, if the Governor of Long Island were a Republican and were to certify the results for Biden, he would have been effectively demonized by Trump and his supporters would be calling for his head, especially if at one time or another he or she were viewed as a "Trump loyalist".
Those are just a few observations in mind, but I could be wrong.
|
