Why did Cruz do so well in Wisconsin during the GOP primaries?
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  Why did Cruz do so well in Wisconsin during the GOP primaries?
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Author Topic: Why did Cruz do so well in Wisconsin during the GOP primaries?  (Read 745 times)
Deblano
EdgarAllenYOLO
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« on: August 21, 2017, 12:37:04 PM »

This may be a silly question, but the GOP Primary results map in Wisconsin continues to perplex me.

It seems that the western half of Wisconsin went strongly for Trump, while the Eastern half including Milwaukee went for Cruz.

Is there any specific reason for why such a strange map happened?

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PoliticalShelter
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« Reply #1 on: August 21, 2017, 02:48:27 PM »

A.) trump was a poor fit for Republican primary voters in the Upper Midwest, who tend to be disproportionately educated and church going (he also lost both the Iowa and Minnesota caucuses).

B.) the entire Wisconsin conservative talk radio industry was basically against him and actively were campaigning against him (as well the more traditional GOP Wisconsin establishment).
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Young Conservative
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« Reply #2 on: August 25, 2017, 10:38:09 AM »

This was white collar suburbia vs blue blue collar rural Wisconsin.
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Beet
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« Reply #3 on: August 25, 2017, 10:53:50 AM »

Weird; I just noticed that, aside from Milwaukee and Madison, the typically more Democratic areas of the state went for Trump, and the typically more GOP areas for Cruz. I can't believe that never clicked before. But it makes Trump's surprise win in the state less surprising.
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mvd10
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« Reply #4 on: August 25, 2017, 11:40:36 AM »

Walker and Johnson also are really right-wing Republicans from WI. I guess Wisconsin just really likes right-wing movement conservatives. It makes a lot of sense if WI Republican primary voters indeed are disproportionally college-educated and church going.
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TJ in Oregon
TJ in Cleve
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« Reply #5 on: August 26, 2017, 09:29:40 AM »

Mainly because he wasn't Trump and Kasich made no serious effort. The traditional Republican base in Wisconsin was strongly anti-Trump at the time, thus the areas dominated by them went heavily for Cruz. The rural north and west don't much of the normal WI Republican base (in Wisconsin the Republicans were considerably more upscale and educated than any of our neighbors prior to 2016), and are instead full of a more stereotypical blue collar Trump voter: secular, working class, more isolationist, bought into Trump's view of American strength, etc. By class alone, one might have expected Trump to win Green Bay in the primary, but it's probably too Catholic. You have to remember the week Donald Trump was in Wisconsin in the primary, he managed to obliviously run into a buzz saw of opposition, changed his position on abortion like six times, and spent the other half of the week campaigning against Scott Walker.

But, what allowed him to make it work here in November was that the vast majority of people who voted against him in the primary, particularly for Cruz, are far too ideologically conservative to vote for Hillary when she offered them (us actually) absolutely nothing in return. She must have expected the Milwaukee suburbs to either vote like the Chicago suburbs, or that the rural Trumpist surge wouldn't happen, or that she could overwhelm it by huge turnout in Milwaukee.
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Fuzzy Bear
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« Reply #6 on: August 26, 2017, 10:27:08 AM »

Weird; I just noticed that, aside from Milwaukee and Madison, the typically more Democratic areas of the state went for Trump, and the typically more GOP areas for Cruz. I can't believe that never clicked before. But it makes Trump's surprise win in the state less surprising.

Republicans are more churchgoing than Democrats, including Democrats who switch parties to vote in GOP primaries.  Cruz beat Trump overall amongst REGULAR churchgoers; it was the more marginal churchgoers that Trump carried.
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