over/under on number of Democratic candidates who haven’t…..

[Mr. Morden]

What’s your over/under on the number of 2020 Democratic presidential candidates we’ll get who fall into these two categories?:

1) Have held political office, but have never served as either a state’s governor or as a US Senator
e.g., Gabbard, Moulton, Buttigieg, Garcetti, Kander, Castro, Holder…

2) Have never held political office of any kind
e.g., Iger, Schultz, Sandberg…

Only include candidates who end up being invited to at least one debate (even if it’s a “kiddie table” debate).  No point in counting folks who only get on the ballot in something like five states and are not even included in any polls.

[The Other Castro]

1. 1.5
2. 0.5

[The Chill Moderate Republican]

1. 1.5
2. 0.5

is this a ratio thing? can you be more specific.

[The Other Castro]

1. 1.5
2. 0.5

is this a ratio thing? can you be more specific.

As in like over or under 1.5 or 0.5 for each category respectively. So choosing over for 1.5 could be 2, while under could be 1 candidate entry.

[Mr. Morden]

I do wonder, if the success of Trump does end up pushing a few celebrity candidates with no political or even business experience into running, do TPTB try to set up rules for debate inclusion that would exclude them, at least for the 1st tier debates (and what would such rules look like?)?

I mean, as I've said before, the 2020 Dem. field might end up being as big as the 2016 GOP field, but *unlike* the 2016 GOP field, it'll include many more people who didn't have widespread name recognition years in advance.  And so if inclusion in the debates is based on polling numbers, then those with widespread name recognition early on will have a huge advantage towards getting in.  Do the Dems really want a debate that includes George Clooney, but excludes Amy Klobuchar or Chris Murphy?

[The Other Castro]

A lot of these candidates aren't actually running, they're either just getting overhyped by the media or trying to bring attention to themselves. Zuckerberg, Iger, Schultz, Sandberg, Cuban, and other non-politicians are almost certainly not running, at least not for the Democratic nomination. I believe many of these other lower office politicians like Buttigieg, Garcetti, Castro, Kander, etc. are mostly trying to get their names out there and don't plan on running (in 2020). We'll still most likely see an abnormally high number of legitimate candidates, but closer to 10 than 20.

[Hoosier_Nick]

1. 1.5
2. 0.5

Agreed

[Mr. Morden]

*bump*

John Delaney has already shattered our expectations on this....

Though note that in the OP I said "Only include candidates who end up being invited to at least one debate (even if it’s a “kiddie table” debate)".  It remains to be seen if Delaney is still in the race by the time of the debates, or if he gets invited to a kiddie table debate at least, as opposed to being Gilmored.

[Figueira]

*bump*

John Delaney has already shattered our expectations on this....

Though note that in the OP I said "Only include candidates who end up being invited to at least one debate (even if it’s a “kiddie table” debate)".  It remains to be seen if Delaney is still in the race by the time of the debates, or if he gets invited to a kiddie table debate at least, as opposed to being Gilmored.

I think Gilmore was in at least one debate.

[Pouring Rain and Blairing Music]

*bump*

John Delaney has already shattered our expectations on this....

Though note that in the OP I said "Only include candidates who end up being invited to at least one debate (even if it’s a “kiddie table” debate)".  It remains to be seen if Delaney is still in the race by the time of the debates, or if he gets invited to a kiddie table debate at least, as opposed to being Gilmored.

I think Gilmore was in at least one debate.

He was. Might've only been the one, but he was in at least one.

[Mr. Morden]

*bump*

John Delaney has already shattered our expectations on this....

Though note that in the OP I said "Only include candidates who end up being invited to at least one debate (even if it’s a “kiddie table” debate)".  It remains to be seen if Delaney is still in the race by the time of the debates, or if he gets invited to a kiddie table debate at least, as opposed to being Gilmored.

I think Gilmore was in at least one debate.

He was. Might've only been the one, but he was in at least one.

You guys are right.  My memory was playing tricks on me.  I guess Gilmore was actually in two of the undercard debates, though in the first of those, they actually had to change the rules to let him and a couple of other candidates in, because they needed more people for the undercard debate.

OK then, I guess I should have used Buddy Roemer 2012 as an example of a candidate who runs but never gets let into the debates.