What was your most shocking Senate Result and What's the possible reasons?

[lfromnj]

Tx,IN,MO and Ohio. I think Michigan can be explained by a strong campaign but these 4 states show the future trends .

Also the fact Bredesen won less counties than barrack HUSSEIN obama did in 2012.

[Xing]

1. The margins in IN/MO were larger than I expected. (Democrats are done here.)
2. TX was closer than I expected. (Republicans should be crapping their pants at this result. Blue Texas may happen sooner than any of us expected.)
3. WV was closer than I expected. (Obviously it's shifted far right at every level, and this is the last time Democrats will win a statewide race here for the foreseeable future.)
4. Baldwin ran quite a bit ahead of Stabenow. (Combination of James being a better candidate than Vukmir, and people being too quite to assume that Wisconsin is a permanently trending Republican while Michigan was a fluke. Clearly both are going to be quite competitive in 2020 and probably beyond.)

Guess which result didn't surprise me.

[Calthrina950]

1. The margins in IN/MO were larger than I expected. (Democrats are done here.)
2. TX was closer than I expected. (Republicans should be crapping their pants at this result. Blue Texas may happen sooner than any of us expected.)
3. WV was closer than I expected. (Obviously it's shifted far right at every level, and this is the last time Democrats will win a statewide race here for the foreseeable future.)
4. Baldwin ran quite a bit ahead of Stabenow. (Combination of James being a better candidate than Vukmir, and people being too quite to assume that Wisconsin is a permanently trending Republican while Michigan was a fluke. Clearly both are going to be quite competitive in 2020 and probably beyond.)

Guess which result didn't surprise me.

Nevada of course. What do you think about the fact that Hirono was the only victor from either party to clear 70%? I had thought Sanders at the very least would do so, and I had given Romney a strong chance of doing so as well.

[lfromnj]

1. The margins in IN/MO were larger than I expected. (Democrats are done here.)
2. TX was closer than I expected. (Republicans should be crapping their pants at this result. Blue Texas may happen sooner than any of us expected.)
3. WV was closer than I expected. (Obviously it's shifted far right at every level, and this is the last time Democrats will win a statewide race here for the foreseeable future.)
4. Baldwin ran quite a bit ahead of Stabenow. (Combination of James being a better candidate than Vukmir, and people being too quite to assume that Wisconsin is a permanently trending Republican while Michigan was a fluke. Clearly both are going to be quite competitive in 2020 and probably beyond.)

Guess which result didn't surprise me.

Nevada of course. What do you think about the fact that Hirono was the only victor from either party to clear 70%? I had thought Sanders at the very least would do so, and I had given Romney a strong chance of doing so as well.

I felt like Sanders presidential run might turn off some more moderate dem/the few Clinton supporters and also Romney probably lost among Trumpists.

[Calthrina950]

1. The margins in IN/MO were larger than I expected. (Democrats are done here.)
2. TX was closer than I expected. (Republicans should be crapping their pants at this result. Blue Texas may happen sooner than any of us expected.)
3. WV was closer than I expected. (Obviously it's shifted far right at every level, and this is the last time Democrats will win a statewide race here for the foreseeable future.)
4. Baldwin ran quite a bit ahead of Stabenow. (Combination of James being a better candidate than Vukmir, and people being too quite to assume that Wisconsin is a permanently trending Republican while Michigan was a fluke. Clearly both are going to be quite competitive in 2020 and probably beyond.)

Guess which result didn't surprise me.

Nevada of course. What do you think about the fact that Hirono was the only victor from either party to clear 70%? I had thought Sanders at the very least would do so, and I had given Romney a strong chance of doing so as well.

I felt like Sanders presidential run might turn off some more moderate dem/the few Clinton supporters and also Romney probably lost among Trumpists.

Possible, but given how Ben McAdams looks set to defeat Mia Love in UT-04, I think it is more likely that Romney was dragged down by her weak performance, and that some of the suburban voters in Salt Lake County voted a straight Democratic ticket because of their loathing of Trump. Summit County was won by Clinton and Misty Snow (Mike Lee's opponent in 2016), and Romney only carried it by about 3% or so back in 2012, so I'm not too surprised that he lost it. I don't understand how he lost Grand County though, and why he couldn't get an absolute majority in Salt Lake County, at the very least.

Sanders and Gillibrand were definitely hurt by their more "national" status and their presidential aspirations, particularly the latter. Gillibrand lost many of the rural counties in Upstate New York that she had carried last time, including several that Chuck Schumer won just over two years ago. I think that her "flip-flopping" on the issues hurt her as well. Warren was also hurt by her presidential aspirations, but she apparently has a weak approval rating, compared to what a Democratic Senator should have in Massachusetts (and much lower than Baker's). Hence, why she just barely cleared 60%, and why she lost Plymouth County.

There seems to have been some primary backlash against Barrasso that carried over into the general election, and his opponent was someone who almost won Wyoming's at-large House seat 12 years ago. Whitehouse and Klobuchar did worse than they did six years ago, but still put in impressive performances, and Cardin improved by 8% over his 2012 numbers. There was a strong independent candidate in Maryland six years ago, so I assume that he picked up much of that support.

Some other incumbents improved by substantial margins as well. Tim Kaine did 4% better than in 2012 and it's not hard to see why: the repulsiveness of pro-Confederate Corey Stewart. Hirono did 9% better (probably because of her status as an entrenched incumbent in heavily Democratic Hawaii), Casey did about 3% better, and Baldwin did about 4% better. King also did better than in 2012, percentage wise at least.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Hmm, nothing too surprising. I guessed the current map exactly except Florida for Nelson and WV for Morrisey. But I was spot on regarding composition. I was surprised by Bredesen losing that badly though, and Barasso and Romney also did pretty bad. Beto also did better than I expected. Bernie also did worse than I expected.

I guess Scott was just better than I expected in strategy and Morrisey screaming Trump was not enough. I guess Bredesen was damaged by project veritas, and Barasso actually had a good challenger, and maybe people were getting a little tired of Romney. I guess Betomania was real, and Bernie got more partisan.

[Calthrina950]

Hmm, nothing too surprising. I guessed the current map exactly except Florida for Nelson and WV for Morrisey. But I was spot on regarding composition. I was surprised by Bredesen losing that badly though, and Barasso and Romney also did pretty bad. Beto also did better than I expected. Bernie also did worse than I expected.

I guess Scott was just better than I expected in strategy and Morrisey screaming Trump was not enough. I guess Bredesen was damaged by project veritas, and Barasso actually had a good challenger, and maybe people were getting a little tired of Romney. I guess Betomania was real, and Bernie got more partisan.

It's amazing how people on here were mocking you for months for your pessimism about Manchin, and it turns out that your pessimism (as well as that of IceSpear's), was very much warranted. Going into Election Day, I had fully expected Manchin to win by anywhere from 8-12%, with the latter being more likely in my view. There was the one poll that showed him up 52-36% about a month or so ago, and I thought that the undecideds would break his way. Unfortunately, that did not happen, and Manchin failed to get an absolute majority (even underperforming Tester!) Nevertheless, I am glad that he survived, even though I'm sorry that Heitkamp, Donnelly, and Bredesen lost.

[Unbeatable Titan Susan Collins]

Scott in Florida has to be the most surprising of the winners. The polls seemed to show Nelson outside the MoE.

Of the losers Beto in Texas and James in Michigan both did much better then expected. Do people think James will challenge Peters in 2020?

[Calthrina950]

Scott in Florida has to be the most surprising of the winners. The polls seemed to show Nelson outside the MoE.

Of the losers Beto in Texas and James in Michigan both did much better then expected. Do people think James will challenge Peters in 2020?

What's even more surprising, as was noted elsewhere, is that Nelson won Duval, Seminole, St. Lucie, and Pinellas, all counties carried by Trump in 2016, and still lost. If he had gotten Clinton's percentages and levels of turnout in Miami-Dade, Broward, and Palm Beach, he would have won by at least 2-3%.

[MillennialModerate]

The most shocking result to me was Tennessee. I truly underestimated how pathetic that state is. I see partisanship as pathetic. And if Massachusetts had NOT re-elected Charlie Baker I would say the same thing about Mass as I’am about Tennessee. The fact Phil Bredesen lost by 11% is frankly disgusting. He would make a great Senator.

Secondly, the most shocking and in a BAD way is Texas. Beto did THAT good against THAT bad of a canidate and still lost by a sizable amount of votes. It was a wake up call to just how long it’ll be until Texas is a real swing state.

Thirdly, I was surprised Arizona came through (or it looks that way anyway)

Fourth, Ugh... Florida

[Calthrina950]

The most shocking result to me was Tennessee. I truly underestimated how pathetic that state is. I see partisanship as pathetic. And if Massachusetts had NOT re-elected Charlie Baker I would say the same thing about Mass as I’am about Tennessee. The fact Phil Bredesen lost by 11% is frankly disgusting. He would make a great Senator.

Secondly, the most shocking and in a BAD way is Texas. Beto did THAT good against THAT bad of a canidate and still lost by a sizable amount of votes. It was a wake up call to just how long it’ll be until Texas is a real swing state.

Thirdly, I was surprised Arizona came through (or it looks that way anyway)

Fourth, Ugh... Florida

Baker winning by an absolute landslide in Massachusetts, as well as Hogan and Scott winning by double digits in Maryland and Vermont, does give me some hope that split-ticket voting is not completely dead. Their victories, as well as that of Kelly in Kansas, were bright spots in an otherwise bleak and polarized election.

[lfromnj]

The most shocking result to me was Tennessee. I truly underestimated how pathetic that state is. I see partisanship as pathetic. And if Massachusetts had NOT re-elected Charlie Baker I would say the same thing about Mass as I’am about Tennessee. The fact Phil Bredesen lost by 11% is frankly disgusting. He would make a great Senator.

Secondly, the most shocking and in a BAD way is Texas. Beto did THAT good against THAT bad of a canidate and still lost by a sizable amount of votes. It was a wake up call to just how long it’ll be until Texas is a real swing state.

Thirdly, I was surprised Arizona came through (or it looks that way anyway)

Fourth, Ugh... Florida

lol Texas goes blue next democrat favorable year. 95% unless the dems nominate a F tier candidate for governor if its not a presidential year.