The shameless mencken accuracy report
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  The shameless mencken accuracy report
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Author Topic: The shameless mencken accuracy report  (Read 440 times)
mencken
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« on: June 20, 2017, 06:15:55 PM »

(July to December 2015)

RIGHT
July 2015 Nostradamus of the Midwest Trumpocalypse
I realize what a failure Jeb is
August 2015 I realize what a failure Hillary is
More anti-Hillary soothsaying, and getting on the anti-immigration as strategy bandwagon
In which I inadvertently predict the GOP's winning 2016 strategy
September 2015: Trump beats Rubio
Pennsylvania is not a blue state
Two out of three ain't bad
Rubio will lose absent a course correction
Cruz wins Iowa, Trump wins New Hampshire, Rubio wins the hearts and minds of the punditocracy
December 2015 Trump will curbstomp Rubio in his home state
More lessons in Election Strategery 101

MOSTLY RIGHT
Bernie sweeps West, Upper Midwest, Upper New England
Correct until late April (when they folded)

MOSTLY WRONG
Wishful thinking for Rod Blum proves correct, not so far Jindal or Hardy
Trump only wins in a one-on-one against Bush

WRONG
Believing the Bush hype
In which I vastly overestimate the competence of the RINO establishment
More RINOe pessimism
In which I peddle the "Trump is a plant" theory
Trump wins Iowa, loses New Hampshire (in the primaries)
The Summer of Trump
In which I vastly underestimate the incompetence of the California GOP
In which I vastly overestimate the competence of the DNC
LULZ
New Hampshire for Cruz?

To be continued....
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mencken
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« Reply #1 on: June 20, 2017, 09:10:17 PM »
« Edited: June 20, 2017, 10:31:01 PM by mencken »

RIGHT
Trump's path to victory lies through Michigan and Pennsylvania
Trump will win*
Nailed Nevada
The oracle of Rhode Island
Trump will win Florida (with heaping servings of IceSpear salt)
Trump (and Ron Johnson) will win Wisconsin

MOSTLY RIGHT
Trump wins South Carolina, Clinton narrowly wins Nevada
Only off by 2 seats in the magnitude of GOP House loses (much less accurate with regard to which ones though)
I really only missed Wisconsin, Indiana, and Nevada (fewer than the people predicting Pennsylvania, Missouri, Florida, Arizona, North Carolina would flip)
Got a third of the Midwest trifecta correct
Trump's lead in Iowa might be foreboding for Wisconsin
Hillary will lose Michigan, win Nevada


MOSTLY WRONG
New Hampshire winner is right, everything else is suspect
Cruz wins most Huckabee/Santorum states on Super Tuesday
Rubio might not get totally slaughtered in his home state
Too bullish on Sanders and Cruz
In which I imply that Trump will win Nevada
PV off by 7%, nailed Johnson and Stein numbers though

WRONG
Trump wins Iowa caucus by 1%
Rubio wins Nevada
Johnson will get fewer votes than in 2012
Clinton will win Ohio (and the election)
I stay on the Clinton-will-win hivemind
Ohio will be close
Trump will not win Michigan
Trump will not win Wisconsin

In conclusion, my predictions are about as accurate as a coin flip (partly because I contradict myself so often), although that still makes me more accurate than 90% of this forum.
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JerryArkansas
jerryarkansas
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« Reply #2 on: June 22, 2017, 06:47:11 AM »
« Edited: June 22, 2017, 08:40:47 AM by TexasGurl »

This inspired me to take a look through a few random pages of my posts from throughout the 2015-2016 election cycle. I tend not to prognosticate much, so there's no point-scoring here except in the figurative, obnoxious sense:

Fortunately the GOP nominee is more likely than not to be a complete loon, so Hillary will win by default,

This has never been true. (And even if it were true six months ago, it isn't today.)

No wonder he has been such a nasty and unhinged mess since the election, if he began the cycle with that attitude.

Who pissed in your cereal and made you a bitter jerk?
This is all you have been doing since August of last year.  Can't let some things go can you?
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
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« Reply #3 on: June 22, 2017, 11:52:02 AM »

nobody cares
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