Could we just look at Vigo County to see how the Midwest is feeling?

[History505]

Whatever Vigo County goes to, it seems the Midwest and Country goes as a whole as well. Should we just be polling that county to get an idea or is that silly?

[hueylong]

Looking solely at Vigo is likely to give us a pretty good indication of how people are leaning, but it's not infallible. No bellwether is. It's been wrong a few times. I'd also be cautious about putting too much stock into one county that, from a racial, economic, and educational perspective, is really not that diverse.  Is there any explanation for why it's such a good predictor other than that it contains a healthy mix of urban and rural communities?

[uti2]

Looking solely at Vigo is likely to give us a pretty good indication of how people are leaning, but it's not infallible. No bellwether is. It's been wrong a few times. I'd also be cautious about putting too much stock into one county that, from a racial, economic, and educational perspective, is really not that diverse.  Is there any explanation for why it's such a good predictor other than that it contains a healthy mix of urban and rural communities?

https://www.nytimes.com/2016/06/10/upshot/there-are-more-white-voters-than-people-think-thats-good-news-for-trump.html

"Even if the electorate were as old and as white as it was in 2004, Mr. Obama would have won, because of the gains he made among white voters in states like New Mexico, Colorado and Iowa."

[SingingAnalyst]

We could certainly do worse. According to Wikipedia it has been an almost perfect bellwether for the last 60 years. And I had never heard of it.

[hopper]

Vigo County, Indiana.

Demographics of Vigo County(as of 2015 per US Survey Quickfacts:)

85.7% Non-Hispanic-White
8.3% Black or African American
2.6% Hispanic or Latino
2.3% Two or More Races
2.0% Asian

49.2% Female

[hopper]

Looking solely at Vigo is likely to give us a pretty good indication of how people are leaning, but it's not infallible. No bellwether is. It's been wrong a few times. I'd also be cautious about putting too much stock into one county that, from a racial, economic, and educational perspective, is really not that diverse.  Is there any explanation for why it's such a good predictor other than that it contains a healthy mix of urban and rural communities?

https://www.nytimes.com/2016/06/10/upshot/there-are-more-white-voters-than-people-think-thats-good-news-for-trump.html

"Even if the electorate were as old and as white as it was in 2004, Mr. Obama would have won, because of the gains he made among white voters in states like New Mexico, Colorado and Iowa."

I'm pretty positive that the electorate was a little more Black and Hispanic in 2004 than it was in 2000 though.  The electoral demographic make-up in 2004 was probably less Non-Hispanic-White than it was in 2000. The big change from 2004 to 2008 was the 18-29 age bracket that went for Obama in 2008 by 34-35% points vs only 7% points for Kerry in 2004.

[hopper]

We could certainly do worse. According to Wikipedia it has been an almost perfect bellwether for the last 60 years. And I had never heard of it.

Yeah I know its weird that we haven't heard of it till now on these boards.

[Hoosier_Nick]

It is a very good bellwether. Although it's not as ethnically diverse as we may like for a solid one, it has Indiana State, which provides a fairly consistent liberal base, some large prisons and a lot of blue collar work. It is also a little bit rural, too. Although the county is trending R right now, it may still be accurate for awhile.

[Pollster]

Vigo went for Bayh 53-42 in the Senate race, so its bellwether status is probably restricted to Presidential races.

Valencia County, New Mexico is just as reliable a bellwether as Vigo and is significantly more diverse (35% white, 59% Hispanic) but has a smaller population.

Future polling of both counties could be interesting.

[Fight for Trump]

Vigo went for Bayh 53-42 in the Senate race, so its bellwether status is probably restricted to Presidential races.

Valencia County, New Mexico is just as reliable a bellwether as Vigo and is significantly more diverse (35% white, 59% Hispanic) but has a smaller population.

Future polling of both counties could be interesting.

One is mostly-white, with a smattering of blacks, Hispanics, and Asians, while the other is mostly-Hispanic with I assume whites basically making up the remainder... how is the latter "significantly more diverse"?

[Pollster]

Vigo went for Bayh 53-42 in the Senate race, so its bellwether status is probably restricted to Presidential races.

Valencia County, New Mexico is just as reliable a bellwether as Vigo and is significantly more diverse (35% white, 59% Hispanic) but has a smaller population.

Future polling of both counties could be interesting.

One is mostly-white, with a smattering of blacks, Hispanics, and Asians, while the other is mostly-Hispanic with I assume whites basically making up the remainder... how is the latter "significantly more diverse"?

Overwhelming majority of voting power (race-wise at least) goes to white voters in Vigo, without even factoring in Indiana's voting laws which likely give the demo even more power than they would have otherwise. Valencia has large enough amounts of white and hispanic voters that both wield significant voting power and is in a state where voting regulation is more relaxed and voting is more accessible.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Vigo went for Bayh 53-42 in the Senate race, so its bellwether status is probably restricted to Presidential races.

Valencia County, New Mexico is just as reliable a bellwether as Vigo and is significantly more diverse (35% white, 59% Hispanic) but has a smaller population.

Future polling of both counties could be interesting.

It is not a statewide bellwether, because Indiana has a strong R PVI, relative to the nationwide vote. Vigo typically close to the nationwide vote, or at least the Midwest vote, which is much less Republican than the state.

It is part and parcel to the dynamic whereby as a Republican if you win Indiana by 20% you are winning the Presidency, but if you win it by less you will lose the Presidency. A Republican winning Indiana by 20% is winning Vigo County, a Republican winning by around 10% like Young, or Romney probably is not winning Vigo County.