What percentage of 2016 Dem/GOP voters will vote in 2018?

[Adam Griffin]

In raw numbers/as a comparison, what percentage of Clinton/Trump's 2016 vote will show up to vote in 2018 for their respective parties? The past three midterm elections have been:

2014: 56.72% of 2012 D, 69.67% of 2012 R
2010: 56.08% of 2008 D, 74.77% of 2008 R
2006: 71.72% of 2004 D, 57.79% of 2004 R

2006 is the only election in the modern era where Dem share outpaced GOP share compared to the previous presidential election - depending on how you look at 1988/1990, it could be argued that the last "normal" election (i.e. not a blow-out) before that where Dems > GOP in this regard was 1978.

For reference, here are the percentages from 1962-2014 (obvious outliers are obvious, for obvious reasons):



Right now, I'm banking on Dems breaking 70% and the GOP being around 60%.

[Hindsight was 2020]

Like 06 I think we are looking at 72% dem vs 57% rep

[Adam Griffin]

Fun fact: using universal swings, the wave-like environment that existed in 2006 (Ds at 72% of 2004 electorate & Rs at 58% of 2004 electorate) still wouldn't be enough to flip the House; 226-209. This also assumes that all uncontested races in 2016 remain held by the same party.

To flip, you'd need an midterm electorate where Democrats were 73% of their 2016 raw total and Republicans were 56%: basically a mirror image of 2010.

[Adam Griffin]

Bumping after an eventful month.

[Kingpoleon]

D: 65-69%(On the higher side)
R: 55-59%(On the lower side)